Johnson Part of the Core

[Ommaculate]

If, by "this" you mean your previous two sentences, I agree wholeheartedly.

Bury your head in the sand some more why don't you?

ALDS 2012: Jim Johnson Fails Again for the Baltimore Orioles in Game 3

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1366848-alds-2012-jim-johnson-fails-again-for-the-baltimore-orioles-in-game-3

In Game 1 of the ALDS, he took the mound in the top of the ninth inning with a 2-2 tie and only lasted 0.1 innings on 17 pitches.

Yankees catcher Russell Martin led off the inning and broke the tie with a home run to left field.

Doesn't matter, doubtful we get back there anytime soon.

[SilentJames]

I didn't expect him to be non-tendered, but I hope they keep the door open to possibly trading him.

And if trading him is the plan, they wouldn't want to give that away.

I'm not among those who believes in paying a lot for a closer, but I also don't believe there is an alternative on the roster right now. Gausman wasn't picked 4th in the draft to be a reliever and Hunter and O'Day both struggle with lefties, Hunter in particular.

Closers need to be able to get out both righties and lefties effectively. Though it's always possible to go matchups until someone emerges as the guy.

Closer by committee never works. If the Orioles intend to compete next year they need to find one guy to be - the guy.

Maybe that is Johnson, maybe its not, but playing matchups is a terrible plan that really never works.

[SilentJames]

Bury your head in the sand some more why don't you?

ALDS 2012: Jim Johnson Fails Again for the Baltimore Orioles in Game 3

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1366848-alds-2012-jim-johnson-fails-again-for-the-baltimore-orioles-in-game-3

Doesn't matter, doubtful we get back there anytime soon.

Oh jesus Wynona Ryder from Beetlejuice, lighten the hell up.

[SilentJames]

That's a fact. Back to Back blown saves vs D-Backs broke this team.

Yes, even though we were within two games of a playoff spot until last week.

Yep, that series broke this team.

Come on.

[Ommaculate]

Oh jesus Wynona Ryder from Beetlejuice, lighten the hell up.

I'm just trying to make sense of it. After what happened in 2012, and what happened in 2013, let's give the guy a huge contract!

[Guest]

Yes, even though we were within two games of a playoff spot until last week.

Yep, that series broke this team.

Come on.

With this Cheap owner you DON'T WASTE 9M ON A guy that blown 9 saves and leads the Orioles in losses.

[SilentJames]

The reasons the Orioles missed the playoffs include the following:

Terrible team OBP

offensive slowdowns from McLouth, Machado, and Davis in the second half

JJ

Markakis forgetting how to hit

Wieters having the worst BABIP of his starting career

The inability of starters to routinely get past the sixth inning

Hammel regressing hardcore and getting hurt

Chen getting hurt

Gausman flopping in his debut as a starter

The resurgence of the Red Sox

The Astros moving to the AL West

Terrible clutch hitting in the last two months

[Frobby]

I'm a little surprised Duquette declared this publicly, long before the non-tender deadline. However, I don't disagree with the decision. I do agree that we can consider shopping him.

People need to realize that when you have 57 save opportunities, you are going to blow some. Even Mariano has only a career 89% save rate. 89% of 57 chances means you're going to blow 6 saves. JJ's at 84.2%, which is below average for a good closer, but not really awful, either.

As to salary, I don't know why people think JJ will get $9 mm. Arbitrators can read. They'll know he blew 9 saves. They'll know JJ's $6.5 mm from last year was predicated on a 94% save rate and the fact that JJ was a key reason the O's made the playoffs in 15 years, and this year JJ was a significant reason why the O's did not make the playoffs. And JJ and his agent know these things, too. I look for JJ to settle for a modest raise. I even think it's possible -- hold on to your seats -- that the O's will ink JJ to a 2-3 year deal at $7 mm per or so.

[Guest]

I'm a little surprised Duquette declared this publicly, long before the non-tender deadline. However, I don't disagree with the decision. I do agree that we can consider shopping him.

People need to realize that when you have 57 save opportunities, you are going to blow some. Even Mariano has only a career 89% save rate. 89% of 57 chances means you're going to blow 6 saves. JJ's at 84.2%, which is below average for a good closer, but not really awful, either.

As to salary, I don't know why people think JJ will get $9 mm. Arbitrators can read. They'll know he blew 9 saves. They'll know JJ's $6.5 mm from last year was predicated on a 94% save rate and the fact that JJ was a key reason the O's made the playoffs in 15 years, and this year JJ was a significant reason why the O's did not make the playoffs. And JJ and his agent know these things, too. I look for JJ to settle for a modest raise. I even think it's possible -- hold on to your seats -- that the O's will ink JJ to a 2-3 year deal at $7 mm per or so.

NO One is gonna trade for Jim Johnson and his 9m a year.

[SilentJames]

With this Cheap owner you DON'T WASTE 9M ON A guy that blown 9 saves and leads the Orioles in losses.

He also has saved 99 games in the last two years. He has also led the league in saves the last two years.

Just saying, who is better and cheaper that the Orioles could get?

Hunter has a habit of giving up homers, Matusz? Are you going to waste Gausman as a closer when he really should be a starter?

[SilentJames]

I'm a little surprised Duquette declared this publicly, long before the non-tender deadline. However, I don't disagree with the decision. I do agree that we can consider shopping him.

People need to realize that when you have 57 save opportunities, you are going to blow some. Even Mariano has only a career 89% save rate. 89% of 57 chances means you're going to blow 6 saves. JJ's at 84.2%, which is below average for a good closer, but not really awful, either.

As to salary, I don't know why people think JJ will get $9 mm. Arbitrators can read. They'll know he blew 9 saves. They'll know JJ's $6.5 mm from last year was predicated on a 94% save rate and the fact that JJ was a key reason the O's made the playoffs in 15 years, and this year JJ was a significant reason why the O's did not make the playoffs. And JJ and his agent know these things, too. I look for JJ to settle for a modest raise. I even think it's possible -- hold on to your seats -- that the O's will ink JJ to a 2-3 year deal at $7 mm per or so.

BUT MY RAGE! MY HORRIBLE RAGE IT MUST BE DIRECTED SOMEWHERE!

This is an internet message board Frobby, there is no room for a nuanced discussion based in reality.

[CaptainRedbeard]

fact: Jim Johnson had a poor year

fact: Jim Johnson has saved 99 games the last two years

fact: JJ's BABIP this year was .321, 32 points higher than his career average

fact: JJ blew nine saves this year

fact: If the Orioles make JJ an offer and he declines they get a comp pick

opinion: There aren't a lot of better options out there

opinion: JJ cost us the playoffs

fact: There were a lot of factors that conspired to keep the Orioles out of the post season

Pretty sure the bolded is not true, but I agree with the sentiment of the rest of the post. The compensation is if you give the qualifying offer to a pending free agent and they turn it down. If we tender him a contract while he is still under team control he can't decline, it's just a dispute of the salary.

However, how come we can't non-tender him and sign him to a cheaper contract? I doubt JJ would make more than $6-7 million a year on the open market. He may get a 2 year contract, but I might prefer 2 years and 12-14 million for Johnson than 1 year and 8.5-9 million or whatever he'll get in arbitration.

[Guest]

He also has saved 99 games in the last two years. He has also led the league in saves the last two years.

Just saying, who is better and cheaper that the Orioles could get?

Hunter has a habit of giving up homers, Matusz? Are you going to waste Gausman as a closer when he really should be a starter?

Saves is the must misleading stat you can look at man. All his other stats suck. 9m a year closer are for people that can come in and SO the side and Jim not one.

[SilentJames]

I'm just trying to make sense of it. After what happened in 2012, and what happened in 2013, let's give the guy a huge contract!

You mean the guy that saved 51 games and was pretty much the PRIMARY REASON WE EVEN GOT TO THE PLAYOFFS?

Just saying, he isn't the only closer to get burned in the playoffs. Hell, even Mariano lost one in the world series - it happens.

[SilentJames]

Saves is the must misleading stat you can look at man. All his other stats suck. 9m a year closer are for people that can come in and SO the side and Jim not one.

like who?

What fireballer K machine is out there right now?

JJ's BABIP last year - .257

This year - .321

Career AVG - .289

ERA + last year 170

ERA+ this year 145

That BABIP number is really striking. His FIP numbers are essentially the same from last year.