PECOTA hates us

[Ohfan67]

Basically the Orioles are where they are for a couple reasons:

1) Davis' injury (I still think he is feeling his oblique) and Wieters' loss has been covered well by Cruz, Jones, and Pearce.

2) I am going to assume that the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays are all well, well under their early season projections. Even the Jays don't look invincible, the days of AL East hegemony may be over, for a couple years at least.

3)The defense has been stellar and kept a league average, at best, rotation in many games.

Why to expect more in the second half:

1) I don't believe Davis has simply forgotten how to hit, He won't hit 40, but he could still hit in the mid 30's, especially if he goes on the type of tear he is capable of. Looking at his 2012 season, he is essentially on that pace (had 13 on 6/30, hit 14 on 7/2).

2) The rotation has really stabilized since its early struggles. Jimenez and Gonzo have been the weakest links.

3) Dylan Bundy is lurking

4) Manny Machado will likely improve. Missing ST and the first month, not easy to bounce right back from.

Why to expect collapse:

1) Davis' recent slump - he has looked totally lost

2) The rotation as a unit is still going to be prone to stretches of futility, as will the offense that relies way too much on the home run ball.

3) Missing Wieters will eventually be felt.

4) Steve Pearce will not continue to OPS over .900

Of course, I will still take the over on 75 wins (the preseason projection). To match that the Orioles would have to go 30-48 the rest of the way.

Nice summary. There are other reasons to be positive. For example, Jimenez is capable of reeling off an impressive streak, Flaherty might make a second half contribution, etc. Of course I don't want to even think about much less type how many things could go wrong.

[terps19]

Nice summary. There are other reasons to be positive. For example, Jimenez is capable of reeling off an impressive streak, Flaherty might make a second half contribution, etc. Of course I don't want to even think about much less type how many things could go wrong.

Hey now there is hope for Flaherty. I mean he did crank one to Eutaw St last night! (They did determine it got there right?). And he has been hitting the ball hard recently.

Davis is sure to turn it around. I mean he isnt going to hit .100 the rest of the way. And lets face it; he has been hitting the ball hard recently as I can remember at least 4 outs down the right field line due to the shift. Some of those were surely doubles. At least now he is starting to get good wood on the ball.

Nelson Cruz will get hot and cold like he is now. He will go on streaks.

I have faith that Jimenez will put together a pretty good (but not spectacular) second half of the year and frankly that is all we need. Now Tillman hasnt looked good in a while and that is a reason for concern.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Hey now there is hope for Flaherty. I mean he did crank one to Eutaw St last night! (They did determine it got there right?). And he has been hitting the ball hard recently.

Davis is sure to turn it around. I mean he isnt going to hit .100 the rest of the way. And lets face it; he has been hitting the ball hard recently as I can remember at least 4 outs down the right field line due to the shift. Some of those were surely doubles. At least now he is starting to get good wood on the ball.

Nelson Cruz will get hot and cold like he is now. He will go on streaks.

I have faith that Jimenez will put together a pretty good (but not spectacular) second half of the year and frankly that is all we need. Now Tillman hasnt looked good in a while and that is a reason for concern.

AJ and JJ looking good at the plate right now is a + as is getting some sort of production from the post-Wieters catcher spot.

[Babypowder]

BUMP

Davis .801 OPS .704

Flaherty .686 .645

Hardy .692 .700

Machado .721 .755

Lough .668 .656

Jones .775 .777

Markakis .738 .711

Young .721 .759

Pearce .735 .936

Cruz .784 .858

Schoop .666 .602

Team: .722 .737

Rotation:

Chen 3.95 ERA 3.58

Tillman 4.18 3.29

Gonzalez 4.05 3.28

Norris 4.59 3.62

Gausman 3.86 3.57

Jimenez 4.18 4.90

Seems like the projections are pretty close on the offense with some exceptions: Pearce, Cruz, and Davis (but not the way we thought). Some people had problems with the Jones projection, but it is right on the money now.The pitching was way off, but I don't think anyone saw this coming.

[schittenden]

BUMP

Davis .801 OPS .704

Flaherty .686 .645

Hardy .692 .700

Machado .721 .755

Lough .668 .656

Jones .775 .777

Markakis .738 .711

Young .721 .759

Pearce .735 .936

Cruz .784 .858

Schoop .666 .602

Team: .722 .737

Rotation:

Chen 3.95 ERA 3.58

Tillman 4.18 3.29

Gonzalez 4.05 3.28

Norris 4.59 3.62

Gausman 3.86 3.57

Jimenez 4.18 4.90

Seems like the projections are pretty close on the offense with some exceptions: Pearce, Cruz, and Davis (but not the way we thought). Some people had problems with the Jones projection, but it is right on the money now.The pitching was way off, but I don't think anyone saw this coming.

Thanks. Looks like Pearce, Cruz, and the pitching are the reasons for the playoff season this year.

[weams]

Thanks. Looks like Pearce, Cruz, and the pitching are the reasons for the playoff season this year.

And plenty of role players not mentioned here.

[canonfaz]

BUMP

Rotation:

Chen 3.95 ERA 3.58

Tillman 4.18 3.29

Gonzalez 4.05 3.28

Norris 4.59 3.62

Gausman 3.86 3.57

Jimenez 4.18 4.90

Looks like the forgot to include the "Chiti Wallace" factor into their pitching calculations.

[Redskins Rick]

Looks like the forgot to include the "Chiti Wallace" factor into their pitching calculations.

Plus Ublado has been on the bench helping Gausman out, not to mention Wieters helping Caleb and Nick out.

[AlbionHero]

They have Davis hitting 26 HR with 79 RBI. And playing 75% of the time.

Well, gotta give them credit on this one.

[SilverRocket]

The Orioles' rotation in general has a much higher FIP than ERA. A few years ago, strikeouts were considered the reliable metric with balls in play being considered more a matter of luck. Has that changed now with the increased emphasis on defensive positioning?

[scOtt]

PECOTA hates us but we LOVE it!

[JohnD]

I'm sure some people can find instances where Pecota did get it right, but now is the time for them to speak up. Because every time it tries to predict the Orioles it's always way off, to the point I wonder why people talk about it. It's as clairvoyant as Miss Cleo on an annual basis.

[SilentJames]

I'm sure some people can find instances where Pecota did get it right, but now is the time for them to speak up. Because every time it tries to predict the Orioles it's always way off, to the point I wonder why people talk about it. It's as clairvoyant as Miss Cleo on an annual basis.

Does PECOTA take into account the overall downturn in offense league wide this year. I think I remember reading somewhere that Jones OPS+ this year and last year is similar, even though his overall OPS is down, but it is down league wide.

Just checked it:

Jones OPS+ '13 - 118, '14 - 117

OPS: '13 - .811, '14 - .777

WOW - AL Lg OPS fell from .725 in 2013 to .707 this year. That is by far the lowest it has been since 1989!

[Uli2001]

Thanks. Looks like Pearce, Cruz, and the pitching are the reasons for the playoff season this year.

Pierce and Cruz are somewhat offset by Davis. The real reasons this team is so vastly superior to last year: pitching, pitching, pitching.

[scOtt]

Pierce and Cruz are somewhat offset by Davis. The real reasons this team is so vastly superior to last year: pitching, pitching, pitching.

Pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching!