Fan Graphs: Getting the Extra Year of Team Control is Good and Proper Business (Schoop)

[Can_of_corn]

You said there is no way Schoop could be worth 2 more wins than Lomardozzi . Well Schoop could hit .600 over 10 days so there is a way.

That still isn't going to be worth 2 wins over a 10 day period, unless you plan on Lombadozzi going 0-fer and playing bad defense.

I wonder how many players have hit .600 over a day 10 period while starting?

[wildcard]

The O's need to play Schoop at 2nd until Machado returns because the season is all about winning games and the O's have no one better than Schoop until Machado is back.

Once Machado returns, its good to send Schoop to the minors because where is he going to play everyday? Machado is at 3rd, Flaherty is at 2B and Cruz is DHing most of the time. Sending Schoop down is a logical thing to do and it does help his service clock.

I am not surprised that JTrea took the position he did on Wieters being sent down. It terribly warped but not surprising for JTrea. I am not surprised that JTrea has a feature article in Fangraphs. The two actually fit together pretty well.

[ledzepp8]

Much has been said about Schoop's clock being started here. Dave Cameron explains why and how EVERYONE does it.

Our old friend disagrees. His spectacular argument is...

http://eutawstreetreport.com/os-shouldnt-repeat-wieters-mistake-with-schoop/

Bless him if he really believe that.

Haha so Wieters isn't Mauer with Power because he started his rookie year in AAA? Jeez Jtrea...I guess that will be new thing this year to rail against. Do people actually read him on that site because his own site is a ghost town where he talks to himself?

[Aristotelian]

You are taking about statistics that somehow you think correspond to actual wins. WAR actually isn't really wins over replacement. It is a guess. You can't just add up the difference in WAR between two teams and figure out how many games difference each team won.

Schoop could be worth 4 more wins in that period over Lomardozzi if he gets hits in the right situtation and the games are close. Or he could be worth zero more wins if all the games are blow-outs.

It is an educated guess based on statistical data. Just saying "Schoop might be worth 2 wins during the first two months" is just an arbitrary assertion. Given that Mike Trout was worth 10 wins over an entire season, the odds that Schoop is by himself worth 2 wins in two months are astronomically low.

Even if Schoop gets a hit in the right situation, as you say, that does not mean he has won the game singlehandedly.

If Schoop hits .300 over the first two months, say 200 ABs, vs .220 for Weeks/Lombardozzi, we are talking about a difference of 16 base hits (and that is being generous to Schoop and conservative to Weeks/Lombardozzi). That is not worth losing an entire year of Schoop in 2021.

You may be right that Schoop is a masher. That is all the more reason we want to maximize his years with the Orioles.

[Can_of_corn]

The O's need to play Schoop at 2nd until Machado returns because the season is all about winning games and the O's have no one better than Schoop until Machado is back.

Once Machado returns, its good to send Schoop to the minors because where is he going to play everyday? Machado is at 3rd, Flaherty is at 2B and Cruz is DHing most of the time. Sending Schoop down is a logical thing to do and it does help his service clock.

I am not surprised that JTrea took the position he did on Wieters being sent down. It terribly warped but not surprising for JTrea. I am not surprised that JTrea has a feature article in Fangraphs. The two actually fit together pretty well.

He doesn't. His piece is here: http://eutawstreetreport.com/os-shouldnt-repeat-wieters-mistake-with-schoop/

[wildcard]

So JTrea name is Jonathan French? Sorry, I misunderstood.

[tnsmith90]

It is an educated guess based on statistical data. Just saying "Schoop might be worth 2 wins during the first two months" is just an arbitrary assertion. Given that Mike Trout was worth 10 wins over an entire season, the odds that Schoop is by himself worth 2 wins in two months are astronomically low.

Even if Schoop gets a hit in the right situation, as you say, that does not mean he has won the game singlehandedly.

If Schoop hits .300 over the first two months, say 200 ABs, vs .220 for Weeks/Lombardozzi, we are talking about a difference of 16 base hits (and that is being generous to Schoop and conservative to Weeks/Lombardozzi). That is not worth losing an entire year of Schoop in 2021.

You may be right that Schoop is a masher. That is all the more reason we want to maximize his years with the Orioles.

You are not thinking in the margins here. When it comes to actually winning games in the real world the margins are what matter. Having a guy get a hit in the bottom of the 9th to send the winning run in is a lot more important than having a guy get an rbi hit in the 3rd in a 5 run ball game. Statistically speaking, it isn't any more important. Quantitatively his impact will still be just that of an rbi hit in either situation. In reality though, one hit is much more important than another. Having the best guy up in that high leverage situation gives the team the best chance to ACTUALLY win ball games in the REAL world. That marginal difference played out in the right situations, which do actually often occur, can mean the difference between the Orioles record being one win higher or lower on any given night. That doesn't mean that Schoop single-handedly won the game, but that his marginal difference was what pushed the team over the edge into the win column, which at the end of the day is all that really matters if you're fighting for the playoffs. You guys are thinking only in the vacuum of the statistical world. Statistics are wonderful tools, but they definitely do not tell the whole story.

[atomic]

It is an educated guess based on statistical data. Just saying "Schoop might be worth 2 wins during the first two months" is just an arbitrary assertion. Given that Mike Trout was worth 10 wins over an entire season, the odds that Schoop is by himself worth 2 wins in two months are astronomically low.

Even if Schoop gets a hit in the right situation, as you say, that does not mean he has won the game singlehandedly.

If Schoop hits .300 over the first two months, say 200 ABs, vs .220 for Weeks/Lombardozzi, we are talking about a difference of 16 base hits (and that is being generous to Schoop and conservative to Weeks/Lombardozzi). That is not worth losing an entire year of Schoop in 2021.

You may be right that Schoop is a masher. That is all the more reason we want to maximize his years with the Orioles.

You confusing a statistic called WAR with actual wins a player causes the team to win. I am not stating that Schoop's WAR will be 2 during the first two months. I am stating that in the first 10 games of the season the difference between Schoop and Weeks playing might be two games being won by the team. We have no idea how many games it would be and will never know the thing is even one game won over a game loss is worth having him on the team until Machado comes back.

I don't know if you know this but if Schoop plays the first 10 games and then gets sent down for a couple of months we still get team control for another year.

And another thing. Weeks isn't even replacement level player he is below replacement level.

[Aristotelian]

You are not thinking in the margins here. When it comes to actually winning games in the real world the margins are what matter. Having a guy get a hit in the bottom of the 9th to send the winning run in is a lot more important than having a guy get an rbi hit in the 3rd in a 5 run ball game. Statistically speaking, it isn't any more important. Quantitatively his impact will still be just that of an rbi hit in either situation. In reality though, one hit is much more important than another. Having the best guy up in that high leverage situation gives the team the best chance to ACTUALLY win ball games in the REAL world. That marginal difference played out in the right situations, which do actually often occur, can mean the difference between the Orioles record being one win higher or lower on any given night. That doesn't mean that Schoop single-handedly won the game, but that his marginal difference was what pushed the team over the edge into the win column, which at the end of the day is all that really matters if you're fighting for the playoffs. You guys are thinking only in the vacuum of the statistical world. Statistics are wonderful tools, but they definitely do not tell the whole story.

But you are not even attempting to think rationally. Even if you are right, you are costing us a whole year of Schoop making marginal differences all season long in 2021. All because you can't wait until June. Remember as well, he had a hot spring but this is a guy with a .268 career average in the minors. A lot of your "what ifs" and "marginal differences" will have to happen for two months of Schoop now to be worth a year of Schoop in 2021. Just doesn't make sense.

And the more you tell me how great Schoop is, the more I want to get 7 years out of him instead of 6.

[Can_of_corn]

You are not thinking in the margins here. When it comes to actually winning games in the real world the margins are what matter. Having a guy get a hit in the bottom of the 9th to send the winning run in is a lot more important than having a guy get an rbi hit in the 3rd in a 5 run ball game. Statistically speaking, it isn't any more important. Quantitatively his impact will still be just that of an rbi hit in either situation. In reality though, one hit is much more important than another. Having the best guy up in that high leverage situation gives the team the best chance to ACTUALLY win ball games in the REAL world. That marginal difference played out in the right situations, which do actually often occur, can mean the difference between the Orioles record being one win higher or lower on any given night. That doesn't mean that Schoop single-handedly won the game, but that his marginal difference was what pushed the team over the edge into the win column, which at the end of the day is all that really matters if you're fighting for the playoffs. You guys are thinking only in the vacuum of the statistical world. Statistics are wonderful tools, but they definitely do not tell the whole story.

How do we know Schoop is the best guy? I like him as a player, have for years, but there is nothing even close to a guarantee that the O's will be a better team with him then without him to start the season.

What is your main argument? That he has hit the crap out of the ball in ST? Schoop is still very young and hasn't put up impressive numbers in the minors the last couple of years.

[Orioles4Life21]

That still isn't going to be worth 2 wins over a 10 day period, unless you plan on Lombadozzi going 0-fer and playing bad defense.

I wonder how many players have hit .600 over a day 10 period while starting?

I've done it many times on MLB The Show.

[Can_of_corn]

I've done it many times on MLB The Show.

I think we may have found ourselves a new hitting coach.

[24fps]

Much has been said about Schoop's clock being started here. Dave Cameron explains why and how EVERYONE does it.

Our old friend disagrees. His spectacular argument is...

http://eutawstreetreport.com/os-shouldnt-repeat-wieters-mistake-with-schoop/

Bless him if he really believe that.

Bless him indeed. He only knows one song, but he'll sing it at the slightest prompting and often with no urging whatsoever. Variations? No problem, but in the end the beat never changes, the tune always resolves the same way, and unlike many songs, we're never left wanting more.

[El Gordo]

IIRC Cesar Izturis hit a walk of GS HR once. So I guess you could say for that week he was worth at leas one W above replacement. Yeah any thing can happen so maybe Schoop will hit two walk off HR in the first two weeks. But the odds of that happening are two slim to justify sacrificing and extra year of control. BTW has anyone figured out just how many days Schoop has to stay in Norfolk, not to start his clock this year?

[Frobby]

You confusing a statistic called WAR with actual wins a player causes the team to win. I am not stating that Schoop's WAR will be 2 during the first two months. I am stating that in the first 10 games of the season the difference between Schoop and Weeks playing might be two games being won by the team. We have no idea how many games it would be and will never know the thing is even one game won over a game loss is worth having him on the team until Machado comes back.

I don't know if you know this but if Schoop plays the first 10 games and then gets sent down for a couple of months we still get team control for another year.

And another thing. Weeks isn't even replacement level player he is below replacement level.

Put another way, WAR is a theoretical construct that doesn't really match reality, especially in the short term. Just for example, a single in the middle of a 15-0 blowout contributes just as much WAR as a game-winning single in the bottom of the 9th. WAR also does not measure how the skills of different players on a team interact with each other. For example, a centerfielder with fantastic range may be more valuable on a team where the corner outfielders have limited range, than on a team where the other two outfielders are quite rangy. At the end of the day, WAR is a useful model for measuring the relative value of players, but I don't think it accurately measures how many wins the team will have with one player versus another in any real sense.