Jump to content

Zach Britton is Too Filthy for the Pen


aaron_cls

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 163
  • Created
  • Last Reply
I'm a big advocate of not Peter Principle'ing pitchers. If they find their niche after years of inconsistent results it's probably because they are well suited for said niche. Not because they suddenly learned how to pitch.

Let's say Britton is a 3.25 ERA reliever. That means he's probably a 4.25 starter, and the O's already have more than five 4.25 ERA starters. Everyone is better in relief, in short stints, going through the lineup once or less.

Everything you're saying is fair, but to the bolded: what if he's much better than that? Would your opinion change if, say, in July he's pitched 50 innings to a ERA of 2.00?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's a huge difference between pitching 2 or 2+ innings and seeing the lineup once, and pacing yourself to go 5, 6, 7 innings and seeing batters three times. Pitching two innings is a lot more like one than it is six.
Right, but that whole paragraph was meant to support the concluding sentence, not only that line. He did see hitters a second time this afternoon as well.
I'm a big advocate of not Peter Principle'ing pitchers. If they find their niche after years of inconsistent results it's probably because they are well suited for said niche. Not because they suddenly learned how to pitch.
Britton has been dealing with injuries as opposed to being "not good enough" previously imo.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Remember, Britton had trouble going deep into games when he was a starter. He has a history of imploding in the 5th or 6th when he starts. It's a tough call and I do not envy Buck on this one with Gausman also waiting in the wings.

If nothing else, right now Britton and Gausman are putting some heat on Chen/Gonzo/Norris to perform well (I wish I could add Ubaldo to that list but sadly with his salary I'm sure he's going to get a huge leash this year). Nothing wrong with some healthy competition and if he whips Chen/Gonzo/Norris into shape and makes them sweat a little while eating up innings out of the pen to keep O'Day/Hunter fresh, so much the better. Plus he provides depth for when (not if) one of the starting 5 go on the DL.

The upshot of him being in the pen is we don't have to wait 5 days to watch him pitch...:thumbsup1:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This looks similar to the healthy Britton we saw in his rookie year. I still don't see a repertoire that will turn over lineups, and he still isn't precise enough with the sinker in the bottom third of the zone. Take away a little precision and velocity in order to spread the effort over 5+ innings and I think you have a back-end guy.

Seems like this is a role that well suits him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I see your point but the bottom line to me is that I want my best pitchers throwing the most innings, assuming they are capable of doing so. I think Britton is capable of doing so and eventually, if he keeps it up, would have to consider putting him in the rotation (assuming a starter is struggling), where he would pitch more innings than he will in his current role.

I think the key words in your post are "eventually, if he keeps it up...assuming a starter is struggling." Someone earlier in the thread made the analogy to Rodrigo Lopez, and I think that is pretty apt. In his best two seasons, Rodrigo started the year in the bullpen, dominated there, and eventually was moved to the rotation when some of the starters faltered. In 2004, he carried a 0.33 ERA in his first 12 relief appearances before being reinserted as a starter in mid-May. That was the year we started out with a rotation that had previous experience of about 30 major league starts combined outside of our "ace" Sidney Ponson (Bedard, Riley, Ainsworth and Dubose were the other four). Our current rotation will have a much longer leash than that crew, given their past success.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everything you're saying is fair, but to the bolded: what if he's much better than that? Would your opinion change if, say, in July he's pitched 50 innings to a ERA of 2.00?

A tiny bit. You'd have to regress that 50 innings with, say, another 60 or 70 innings (about a full-time relief season) of league-average performance. That's about 3.75 for a reliever. So that's what... 120 innings, 40 runs, that's a 3.00. So as a starter that's a 4.00. Plus his prior of 250 innings of a 4.86. To me that says he's still somewhere in the Gonzalez/Chen/Norris ballpark. And for me that doesn't merit disrupting both the rotation and pen in mid-season unless something (like an injury or three) has already disrupted them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's a huge difference between pitching 2 or 2+ innings and seeing the lineup once, and pacing yourself to go 5, 6, 7 innings and seeing batters three times. Pitching two innings is a lot more like one than it is six.

You need multiple plus pitches, to save and throw the second time through, third time through.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...