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Trade Targets....


EagleOriole

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As the deadline begins to slowly approach, there are a couple of players on teams that may sell that intrigue me. Both are left-handed hitters, something we are in need of.

1. LF - Seth Smith (31) - Smith is a left fielder who hits left-handed. He would make a perfect platoon mate to Steve Pearce. While Pearce is destroying the ball right now, I feel we maximize his value in a platoon. This would spell the end of Delmon Young on the team probably as he is a redundant player, but Smith as a platoon mate to Pearce would be interesting.

Smith vs. RH - .301/.399/.548/.947

Pearce vs. LH - .333/.400/.583/.983

Smith carries a $4.5 million contract. As a potential free agent, his cost to acquire might not be that great.

2. 2B - Daniel Murphy (29) - Murphy is a 2B who is having another very solid season. He has a $5.7 million contract and is a free agent in 2016. Not sure about his defense, he is a converted 2B, but if he can make the plays at 2B he would be a clear upgrade offensively. I would think young pitching would be what they are looking for, though they may ask for Schoop.

Murphy is hitting .296/.352/.408/.768

With these two acquisitions are lineup looks more balanced and has better OBP.

RF Markakis, 2B Murphy, CF Jones, 1B Davis, DH Cruz, LF Smith/Pearce, SS Hardy, 3B Machado, C Joseph

I would refuse any deal involving Gausman, Bundy, Harvey...that would leave the following players as logical trade targets:

2B Schoop, LHP Berry, C Ohlman, 1B Walker, LHP E. Rodriguez.

Can we make a match?

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Pearce is going to have to cool off before I would be in favor of platooning him.

Vs Lefties .983 OPS

Vs Righties .958 OPS.

So I would say not now to Smith.

Murphy has some appeal but he has to change leagues which could hurt his production and he in hitting above his career norm. That makes me wonder if he can really help the O's.

There is not a lot out there from teams that are not likely to make the playoffs.

Jemile Weeks is back from the DL. He seems to be hitting and getting on base. As a switch hitter he may be someone the O's would try over Schoop. The O's don't lose much by trying. Both players have options. I think the O's probably promote Weeks instead of Lombo when Manny goes on suspension.

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So we wait until Pearce is no longer hot before making a move and risk losing Smith to another team....ok.

Murphy is not having a career year, he is having a typical year:

2014 - .296/.352/.408/.760

Career - .291/.335/.422/.757

Both would significantly improve our team.

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We need a left handed bat and a maybe a bull pen arm.

I don't think DD will go after a left fielder. Cruz has been promised time in the field and Pearce needs to play as well.

That doesn't mean I wouldn't go after Seth Smith. I don't trust Buck enough that he could figure out how to manage Cruz, Markakis, Pearce, Smith and Davis between LF, RF, 1B and DH. Young would be gone if we had Smith.

Second base is a good place for a left handed hitter, but I don't see a lot of options. I'd go for Utley but he isn't available (and I'd be willing to pay a good price if he was amiable to the deal). Murphy might be an option, but I wouldn't start partying because we acquired him. You never know though, baseball can be a funny sport and Murphy might magically put up numbers like he did 3 or 4 years ago.

2-3 weeks is an eternity, so it's a little early to tell anything.

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Since 2009, Murphy has never OPs'd over .760 (where he is currently) when he's had over 500 AB's. He OPS'd .809 in 2011 in 391 AB's. Even if he were to hit .300 and OPS over .800 for the O's, his defense would negate a lot of that.

Like I said, I wouldn't be partying and he'd have to hit the cover off the ball to make up for the defense. I wouldn't think the Orioles have interest.

The odds of him being a difference maker are very slim.

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Not a rental. Team option of 7M for 2015. That probably make the price higher. We gave up Delmonico (a top 10 prospect) for KRod. Probably a bit more for Street.

San Diego probably asks for Sisco, Eduardo Rodriguez, or someone like that.

I'd like to do that. You?

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I think Murphy's poor defense is being exaggerated. According to bbr he averages about 2 oWAR and -.3 dWAR. Right now Flash and Schoop are 0 oWAR. Neither has defensive numbers that look to compensate for that. We have a hole in the line up at C, 3B, and 2B. We can't upgrade at C, and won't replace Manny so the one option is 2B. Murphy's .750 OPS with .350 OBP would be a big upgrade over Schoop/Flaherty's .600ish OPS.

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Not a rental. Team option of 7M for 2015. That probably make the price higher. We gave up Delmonico (a top 10 prospect) for KRod. Probably a bit more for Street.

San Diego probably asks for Sisco, Eduardo Rodriguez, or someone like that.

I would not trade for Street if you have to give up Sisco. I think Sisco is the number 1 position prospect we have. He is 19 years old hitting over .300 an A ball and plays a position we will need help him at catcher.

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I think Murphy's poor defense is being exaggerated. According to bbr he averages about 2 oWAR and -.3 dWAR. Right now Flash and Schoop are 0 oWAR. Neither has defensive numbers that look to compensate for that. We have a hole in the line up at C, 3B, and 2B. We can't upgrade at C, and won't replace Manny so the one option is 2B. Murphy's .750 OPS with .350 OBP would be a big upgrade over Schoop/Flaherty's .600ish OPS.

Murphy is not much of a second baseman. You've seen his play. He's not a defensive second baseman. He can hit.

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I guess I'll play the WAR game. According to BBRef, Murphy has an overall WAR of 1.7. Schoop is at .8. Assuming they have the same kind of 2nd half as first half, that's one win advantage for Murphy. Of course, you have to give something up for him.

Keep in mind that Murphy's overall WAR in both 2012 and 2013 was 1.5 for the entire season for each season.

Pretty good logic there.

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