Andrew Miller Trade to Orioles

[Reboulet'sStache]

3.62 ERA. I like how people think it is so easy to get a guy pitching like Norris has this year. If it were so easy why didn't the predecessors to DD. Why doesn't every team have 5 starters at least as good as Norris?

Good pitching usually costs you more than we gave up for Norris.

Bud Norris is literally about at the league average in every category this year. Era, walks, strike outs. And he does that while not averaging 6 innings a start. That level of production doesn't usually cost a first rounder and a pretty decent prospect.

[Aristotelian]

Bud Norris is literally about at the league average in every category this year. Era' date=' walks, strike outs. And he does that while not averaging 6 innings a start. That level of production doesn't usually cost a first rounder and a pretty decent prospect.[/quote']

League average is a very valuable player, much better than replacement level, for instance. If your #4/#5 starter is league average, you have a very good rotation.

[Reboulet'sStache]

League average is a very valuable player, much better than replacement level, for instance. If your #4/#5 starter is league average, you have a very good rotation.

But that is separate point from cost.

[mdbdotcom]

But that is separate point from cost.

And teams generally pay a high cost for average or better than average pitching. For example, the Padres gave us Nick Hundley and $1.5 million for Troy Patton.

[Reboulet'sStache]

And teams generally pay a high cost for average or better than average pitching. For example, the Padres gave us Nick Hundley and $1.5 million for Troy Patton.

I don't think the Padres were "acquiring" Patton as much as they were dumping Hundley.

[mdbdotcom]

I don't think the Padres were "acquiring" Patton as much as they were dumping Hundley.

Okay, how about a year+ of Cespedes for a couple months of Lester?

[backwardsk]

I hope not. A 3.74 era is basically league average. If we gave up a first and all that money with the intent of getting league average production' date=' we won't be very good for many more years.[/quote']

Wouldn't league average mean you are around 70-80th in ERA and not top 50?

[Aristotelian]

But that is separate point from cost.

The point being that two years of a bona fide major league pitcher, even an average one, commands the price of a decent prospect or two. I am pretty sure the thought occurred to Dan to offer less, and if he could have gotten Bud (or someone comparable) cheaper he would have.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Wouldn't league average mean you are around 70-80th in ERA and not top 50?

Not sure, I guess it depends on how many pitchers there are in the league?

But however many there are, but is about at the league average of everything the last time I looked up his stats, which was before the Yankees game. He gives the Orioles a quality start less than 40% of the time he pitches. My only point was that whatever level of production DD was hoping for when he gave up his first rounder and opened up the wallet, I hope it was for a starter that throws a quality start more than 40% of the time that he pitches. Because that is a lot to pay for such low expectations.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Okay, how about a year+ of Cespedes for a couple months of Lester?

Are you asking if I thought that was a steep price to pay? No. I actually hated the trade from Boston's perspective. I thought they would get a lot more. But I thought the same thing about the Price trade too, so maybe my expectations are/were too high.

[Reboulet'sStache]

The point being that two years of a bona fide major league pitcher, even an average one, commands the price of a decent prospect or two. I am pretty sure the thought occurred to Dan to offer less, and if he could have gotten Bud (or someone comparable) cheaper he would have.

We haven't even received 2 years of an average pitcher yet. Bud was below average for us last year. So far you're looking at a few months of replacement level play and 1 year of average play, and it's not like Norris is producing excess value on his contract. The O's are paying what they should in terms of salary relative to production. AND you gave up a decent prospect and high draft pick for the right to pay that.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Without Bud we do not steamroll the division this year. I'll take steamrolling the division over a prospect any day.

Tampa, NY, and Boston are basically at the bottom of the league in terms of runs. We weren't going to need much pitching to shut down the offenses in the division this year.

[JDubs]

Without Bud we do not steamroll the division this year. I'll take steamrolling the division over a prospect any day.

Amen. He's under appreciated.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Well it's a good thing everything works in hindsight. Oh wait.

Look, go read my OP in the Bud thread from ST. You need a dependable, durable guy like this to be where we're at. That guy didn't exist in our system. We have 5 quality starters, I'm not sure what else people want in a competing year.

Dan is not going to let our farm system dry out, you can bank on that.

Then don't use hindsight. When you say we wouldn't be where we are without Norris, you are using hindsight. I merely pointed out that if we are going to use hindsight and look back on the year, you might want to look back on the offenses we played as well in the division. They were basically all a dumpster fire.

[Reboulet'sStache]

OK that's fair. I just think these are trades competitive teams have to make sometimes. If we continue to draft and develop well, we'll continue to have inventory to supplement the ML club.

I'm not real worried about it.

It's not that I'm worried about trading away prospects and picks per se. By all means, trade them all. They are there to make the club better. I just want the O's to be getting excess value in the trades they make. And when you look at Norri's production over the last year and two months, and measure that against the cost (both in prospects, pick, and what the O's pay Norris), I'm not sure the O's are getting much excess value.