Andrew Miller Trade to Orioles

[webbrick2010]

Hoosiers, please repeat after me. "I didn't have a problem the day the Orioles traded Arrieta to the Cubs or the day the Orioles traded Eduardo Rodriguez for Andrew Miller. As soon as those players started having success with their new organizations I decided that I was wrong. I now blame Dan Duquette for making trades I agreed with but he should know more than me so I think he really screwed up".

I don't have a problem with you criticizing the trades in hindsight. I think I have a problem with you not taking ownership of your stance the day the trades were made. You seem to have taken a giant step away from it.

The Arrieta trade may very well go down as a terrible trade in hindsight. No one on here thought so the day of the deal. I think you can pin that one on the organization as a whole, including DD, Buck, the minor and major league pitching coaches. I doubt Duquette made the decision to trade Arrieta against organization wide dissent.

If we are going to re-evaluate trades within a matter of weeks, I guess Duquette is also to commended for trading low level prospects and cash for 1.000 OPS players, De Aza and Paredes. Andrew Miller has been nothing short of dominant so far and should be a weapon in the postseason. Steve Pearce? Luck or genius. I suppose if Pearce was doing this with another team we'd be hearing how Duquette didn't evaluate him properly as well. Thank God, that Nolan Reimold isn't mashing for Toronto.

GM's sometimes make trades and on the day of the trade, everyone says "What is that guy thinking?" Very few people, including yourself, said that on the day of the Arrieta and ERod trades. Stuff happens. Now, you are unhappy with both trades and need someone to vent your disenchantment with. I guess that guy is Dan Duquette. Does Buck get any blame? I think there is no doubt that Buck gets consulted on these deals. He had a as good a look and as much inside knowledge of Jake Arrieta that anyone could have. There is no doubt in my mind that Buck signed off on that deal.

I'm not going to try to search out the thread, but I was immediately and vehemently against both the Feldman and Norris trades

I know I stated something like no one should give up 2 20 something cost controlled pitchers pitchers with 95+ FB's, and a couple of ML seasons under their belt for a two month rental of a #4/5 starter. Heck Strop had a 173 ERA+ in 2012. He has a 174 ERA+ this year. If you make a deal with Theo Epstein you can expect to be fleeced. The other atrocity of the deal was that the O's didn't realistically have a chance at the playoffs. The GM needs to be able to evaluate his roster and make sober decisions before jettisoning talent on a playoff chase rental.

The Norris deal at least had some value in that Norris was under team control for a couple years. I would not have given up Hader for him

The Miller deal will look bad, unless the O's go deep into the playoffs and Miller makes a substantial contribution, however this year the O's do have a legitimate shot so I'm not going to hold it against DD even if we do fall short and ERod goes onto multiple Cy Young awards. This year it was worth a shot. Last year we should have sat on a powder and we'd really be looking pretty.

[CA-ORIOLE]

The other atrocity of the deal was that the O's didn't realistically have a chance at the playoffs.

Hoosiers has stated this as well. It's simply not true. We were one game out of the Wild Card with 10 games left to play. CLE ran the table and our offense tanked.

[webbrick2010]

Hoosiers has stated this as well. It's simply not true. We were one game out of the Wild Card with 10 games left to play. CLE ran the table and our offense tanked.

Hind sight proved it to be true as we finished 5 teams out of the wildcard, and I argue that when 5 teams are better than your team, than as the GM you have done a very bad job of evaluating the talent and potential of your roster and the pieces that you were adding to it.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Hind sight proved it to be true as we finished 5 teams out of the wildcard, and I argue that when 5 teams are better than your team, than as the GM you have done a very bad job of evaluating the talent and potential of your roster and the pieces that you were adding to it.

It is true and obvious that we didn't make the playoffs in hindsight. That had little to do with Feldmans's performance. You want criticize the trade, fine, but saying we had no realistic chance at the playoffs at the time of the trade is pure nonsense.

[webbrick2010]

It is true and obvious that we didn't make the playoffs in hindsight. That had little to do with Feldmans's performance. You want criticize the trade, fine, but saying we had no realistic chance at the playoffs at the time of the trade is pure nonsense.

Well lets look at the key words in you statement

1. Feldman's performance, was about what you would have projected it to be, coming to the AL East from the NL Central and basically that means not enough to make much of a difference in 2 months

2. realistic chance: This goes to the heart of trade evaluation. What was the chance that DD was assigning. Did he think he was giving the team a 75% chance to make the playoffs or was it a 25% chance. I would argue that giving up Arrieta, Strop, Hader, Hoes, Delmonico, a first round sandwich pick is way to much unless you think you are securing a > 80% chance, and even then I believe it is too much to sacrifice for a one game WC playoff. I don't know what realistic chance the FO thought they had, I (and I'm sure I wasn't alone) thought the chance was < 10% which means the trade was a big mistake

3. pure nonsense = pure hyperbole

DD has gotten us to an AL East championship, but the cost has been high and perhaps we are now on an unsustainable path, unless we jettison some veterans and build up the minor league system

Ask any Red Sox fan and they will tell you that DD lost his job because he burned thru and did not build up the minor league talent, just like he is doing right now in Baltimore.

[DrungoHazewood]

Hind sight proved it to be true as we finished 5 teams out of the wildcard, and I argue that when 5 teams are better than your team, than as the GM you have done a very bad job of evaluating the talent and potential of your roster and the pieces that you were adding to it.

Says the guy who evaluted the Orioles talent and potential and predicted a 75 or 80 win season on May 30th of this year. I'm waiting for you to deliver your wood nickle.

[CA-ORIOLE]

3. pure nonsense = pure hyperbole

Since it's your position, you can call it whatever you are comfortable with. 1 game out with 10 games left is the definition of being in it. It's a "realistic chance" and it was most certainly a "realistic chance" at the time of the trade. Feldman did his job and even Norris was better than what we had. The hitting collapsing is what killed us in the second half. If you want to backpedal "realistic chance" and parse it into a more coherent and sensible post assessment "See, i told you so" risk-reward evaluation, by all means, feel free to do so.

[tntoriole]

Well lets look at the key words in you statement

1. Feldman's performance, was about what you would have projected it to be, coming to the AL East from the NL Central and basically that means not enough to make much of a difference in 2 months

2. realistic chance: This goes to the heart of trade evaluation. What was the chance that DD was assigning. Did he think he was giving the team a 75% chance to make the playoffs or was it a 25% chance. I would argue that giving up Arrieta, Strop, Hader, Hoes, Delmonico, a first round sandwich pick is way to much unless you think you are securing a > 80% chance, and even then I believe it is too much to sacrifice for a one game WC playoff. I don't know what realistic chance the FO thought they had, I (and I'm sure I wasn't alone) thought the chance was < 10% which means the trade was a big mistake

3. pure nonsense = pure hyperbole

DD has gotten us to an AL East championship, but the cost has been high and perhaps we are now on an unsustainable path, unless we jettison some veterans and build up the minor league system

Ask any Red Sox fan and they will tell you that DD lost his job because he burned thru and did not build up the minor league talent, just like he is doing right now in Baltimore.

I disagree... Feldman was a reasonable gamble during a season when we had a chance, even though it did not pan out, imho.

Arrieta was so awful at the time of the trade that he would have had to have been DFAd because he had no options left and Strop was not much better. Whatever the reasons were for his performance, any GM getting that return for them at that time was way beyond expectation. And I still think Clevenger will be a big league catcher.

Bud Norris was a fine acquisition. Players like Hoes, Hader, Rodriguez for Delmonico (drug suspension) are a dime a dozen and we have had tons of these kind of minor league players even throughout the losing seasons. There is no way that you build a system on those players- they are simply parts to be moved if it makes it possible that the big league team could be better for two months.

Red Sox fans have constantly overrated Theo's contributions and underrated DD's contributions to the 2004 World Series winners and beyond.

Giving up ERod for Miller is again another trade that pennant winners make all the time. I was good with it then, am good with it now, and will be good with it even if ERod wins a Cy Young Award (unlikely). Ultimately all that matters is outcome. Do you win games, titles, pennants? The past three years are the best outcomes the Orioles organization has seen in many, many years. And for that, Andy Macphail, DD and Buck get tons of credit and also, tons of credibility in my book.

[25 Nuggets]

I love how the perspective on those teams is that they're terrible. Baseball is a zero-sum game, part of the reason their results look terrible is that their opposition played so well. Bud Norris is part of that.

Zero-sum game, I like that phrase. How many times do we see during season previews that nearly every single team is improved? I say, relative to what?

[weams]

It is true and obvious that we didn't make the playoffs in hindsight. That had little to do with Feldmans's performance. You want criticize the trade, fine, but saying we had no realistic chance at the playoffs at the time of the trade is pure nonsense.

Not only nonsense. But a lie.

[weams]

I disagree... Feldman was a reasonable gamble during a season when we had a chance, even though it did not pan out, imho.

Arrieta was so awful at the time of the trade that he would have had to have been DFAd because he had no options left and Strop was not much better. Whatever the reasons were for his performance, any GM getting that return for them at that time was way beyond expectation. And I still think Clevenger will be a big league catcher.

Bud Norris was a fine acquisition. Players like Hoes, Hader, Rodriguez for Delmonico (drug suspension) are a dime a dozen and we have had tons of these kind of minor league players even throughout the losing seasons. There is no way that you build a system on those players- they are simply parts to be moved if it makes it possible that the big league team could be better for two months.

Red Sox fans have constantly overrated Theo's contributions and underrated DD's contributions to the 2004 World Series winners and beyond.

Giving up ERod for Miller is again another trade that pennant winners make all the time. I was good with it then, am good with it now, and will be good with it even if ERod wins a Cy Young Award (unlikely). Ultimately all that matters is outcome. Do you win games, titles, pennants? The past three years are the best outcomes the Orioles organization has seen in many, many years. And for that, Andy Macphail, DD and Buck get tons of credit and also, tons of credibility in my book.

Accurate post.

[25 Nuggets]

Good trades often work out badly. You can only judge the wisdom of a trade based on the body of knowledge about the players in question at the time of the deal. You can judge how it worked out later, but that's after you've wound it up and let it go its own way.

People don't like that some things are out of everyone's control. They like blame and credit, they like causal systems. But much of baseball and life is just doing what you can with the information you have and hoping it works out.

I thought Zach Britton should have been DFAd if not traded prior to the season. He was a bad starting pitcher for three years and I thought he had nothing to offer. I could not have been more wrong. And just like another member of the infamous Cavalry, Arrieta, he's turned it around albeit in a closer's role. Unlike Arrieta he's done it in an Oriole uniform. So I give them credit for retaining Britton over my useless objections.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Not only nonsense. But a lie.

Hey, I'm a mean old SOB, so I need to be kinder with my words.

[Frobby]

I'm not going to try to search out the thread, but I was immediately and vehemently against both the Feldman and Norris trades

I know I stated something like no one should give up 2 20 something cost controlled pitchers pitchers with 95+ FB's, and a couple of ML seasons under their belt for a two month rental of a #4/5 starter. Heck Strop had a 173 ERA+ in 2012. He has a 174 ERA+ this year. If you make a deal with Theo Epstein you can expect to be fleeced. The other atrocity of the deal was that the O's didn't realistically have a chance at the playoffs. The GM needs to be able to evaluate his roster and make sober decisions before jettisoning talent on a playoff chase rental.

The Norris deal at least had some value in that Norris was under team control for a couple years. I would not have given up Hader for him

The Miller deal will look bad, unless the O's go deep into the playoffs and Miller makes a substantial contribution, however this year the O's do have a legitimate shot so I'm not going to hold it against DD even if we do fall short and ERod goes onto multiple Cy Young awards. This year it was worth a shot. Last year we should have sat on a powder and we'd really be looking pretty.

Are you saying the O's did not have a legitimate shot last year? On the day we acquired Feldman (July 2, 2013) we were 2.5 games out of first place, and in 2nd wild card position (one game behind Oakland for first wild card position and three games ahead of the next team), at 48-37. To that point in the year, we'd had terrible problems with the back end of our rotation, and otherwise were playing great. Whatever anyone wants to say about the long-term costs of that trade, when it was made we were in the thick of the race and the trade addressed a glaring need. Also, that trade was a three-month rental, not a two-month rental.

As of the Norris trade, the Orioles were 59-48, 5.0 games out of first and still in 2nd wild card position. And of course, that trade wasn't for a rental, but a player who would be here two more years.

So, I'm fine with anyone who didn't like the cost of these trades, but let's not act as if we didn't have very legitimate playoff hopes when these trades were made. Heck, on July 1 of this year we were one game behind in the East and 1.5 out of the wild card. Did we not have a legitimate shot at the playoffs then? We were in pretty much the same position as last year at the same time. We got hot towards the end of the year in 2012 and 2014, and we didn't in 2013, but we were mid-season contenders in all three years and the future was not foreseeable.

[DrungoHazewood]

Are you saying the O's did not have a legitimate shot last year? On the day we acquired Feldman (July 2, 2013) we were 2.5 games out of first place, and in 2nd wild card position (one game behind Oakland for first wild card position and three games ahead of the next team), at 48-37. To that point in the year, we'd had terrible problems with the back end of our rotation, and otherwise were playing great. Whatever anyone wants to say about the long-term costs of that trade, when it was made we were in the thick of the race and the trade addressed a glaring need. Also, that trade was a three-month rental, not a two-month rental.

As of the Norris trade, the Orioles were 59-48, 5.0 games out of first and still in 2nd wild card position. And of course, that trade wasn't for a rental, but a player who would be here two more years.

So, I'm fine with anyone who didn't like the cost of these trades, but let's not act as if we didn't have very legitimate playoff hopes when these trades were made. Heck, on July 1 of this year we were one game behind in the East and 1.5 out of the wild card. Did we not have a legitimate shot at the playoffs then? We were in pretty much the same position as last year at the same time. We got hot towards the end of the year in 2012 and 2014, and we didn't in 2013, but we were mid-season contenders in all three years and the future was not foreseeable.

webbrick still isn't quite convinced they're making the playoffs this year.