Was ERod too much for Andrew Miller

[PA724_Oriole]

Based on what? Your opinion.

How do you know what teams were asking of DD?

Btw, isn't that what everyone on here does? Voice their own opinion. No one here is in the front office so all we can do is speculate and dream.

I just dont understand how some of you who disagree with my opinion, and make your own opinion out to be the right one.

No one here knows if holding on to Bundy is smart until a year or two. No one knows if trading Earod was the right move, yet.

We all just have our own opinions.

[Redskins Rick]

Because if these prospects of the Os were good, there is no reason for them to go after a Drew Smyly and guys like that. As long as the Os were willing to come off one of those arms, that is.

How do you know what the Orioles offered for Price?

Keep in mind, Tampa might have asked more, since it would have been a division rival trade.

[DrungoHazewood]

No one here knows if holding on to Bundy is smart until a year or two. No one knows if trading Earod was the right move, yet.

We all just have our own opinions.

But you can lay out a set of assumptions and a framework for how various trades could work out and make an assessment of the upside and the risk. You have to, at least in part, judge a trade or any transaction based on the information available at the time.

For example, if you traded Gausman for Emilio Bonifacio, and Gausman has a fluke career-ending injury next week it's still a terrible trade. It doesn't matter if it technically worked out, you couldn't have reasonably expected it to work out. There is a very high chance that Bundy becomes some kind of productive major league pitcher, and a non-trivial chance he becomes an ace starter. The return on that kind of odds has to be very high, and any trade assessment in the future would have to take that into account.

[Redskins Rick]

Btw, isn't that what everyone on here does? Voice their own opinion. No one here is in the front office so all we can do is speculate and dream.

I just dont understand how some of you who disagree with my opinion, and make your own opinion out to be the right one.

No one here knows if holding on to Bundy is smart until a year or two. No one knows if trading Earod was the right move, yet.

We all just have our own opinions.

True. Opinions, that what they are.

I remember the Bedard Trade. Solid Outstanding TOR guy to Seattle for some hopeful youth and veteran arm.

AJ & Tillman are here and look how they have done.

Bedard was never effective for Seattle.

So trading youth and prospects for Veterans, don't always work out as you expect them to.

[Ohfan67]

But you can lay out a set of assumptions and a framework for how various trades could work out and make an assessment of the upside and the risk. You have to, at least in part, judge a trade or any transaction based on the information available at the time.

For example, if you traded Gausman for Emilio Bonifacio, and Gausman has a fluke career-ending injury next week it's still a terrible trade. It doesn't matter if it technically worked out, you couldn't have reasonably expected it to work out. There is a very high chance that Bundy becomes some kind of productive major league pitcher, and a non-trivial chance he becomes an ace starter. The return on that kind of odds has to be very high, and any trade assessment in the future would have to take that into account.

Agree totally. Plus the O's are also including in their decision making process the probability that a deadline deal actually helps the team. Just anecdotally it seems that less than half of all deadline deals really improve the team getting the "impact" player. That includes a lot of trades involving fantastic players.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm not a fan of trading a potential starter for a decent reliever (and a rental at that). For those unaware, here is what Fangraphs said in January:

It is a fairly high price. But since that piece he's taken a step back while repeating AA, and will almost certainly fall off all of those top-100 prospect lists. Stotle (who is one of the scouting writers at Baseball Prospectus) thinks it's a tossup whether he ends up as a back-end starter or a reliever.

[PA724_Oriole]

But you can lay out a set of assumptions and a framework for how various trades could work out and make an assessment of the upside and the risk. You have to, at least in part, judge a trade or any transaction based on the information available at the time.

For example, if you traded Gausman for Emilio Bonifacio, and Gausman has a fluke career-ending injury next week it's still a terrible trade. It doesn't matter if it technically worked out, you couldn't have reasonably expected it to work out. There is a very high chance that Bundy becomes some kind of productive major league pitcher, and a non-trivial chance he becomes an ace starter. The return on that kind of odds has to be very high, and any trade assessment in the future would have to take that into account.

I agree. But when a guy like Bundy has TJ, doesn't the chance of that take a hit a bit?

And when you talk about weighing out the pros and cons of each trade.

My current assessment:

Hardy

Davis

Wieters

Markakis

Cruz

All of these guys could potentially be gone in one to two years. So to me risking what Bundy COULD be, is worth giving up if it nets you a ACE type pitcher that could be a huge part of helping this team get deep into the playoffs. To me making a trade like that for a team that is so close doesn't make it a terrible trade.

No doubt it could hamper the team in two or three years. But like I said, if we lose those bats, whats it going to matter gow good Bundy is. We wipl have to start all over again.

Based on the possibility of losing those guys, I dont see how the Os arent in a state of "its now or never".

[mdbdotcom]

Was Tommy Milone too much to pay for Sam Fuld? The pundits think so, but the A's said that Fuld was the guy they wanted and Milone was the price they had to pay. Same with the O's. Miller was the guy they wanted and ERod was the price.

We didn't trade any of the big three of Bundy, Gausman, and Harvey. I'm fine with the deal.

[Tony-OH]

I've seen Rodriquez over his career including this year and Iv'e talked with scouts in and out of the organization about him. There have always been mixed feelings on him. The good is he's young, left-handed, throws in the low 90's and can touch the 94-95 on occasion, and his changeup has shown the ability to miss some bats. The bad is his fastball command has never been great and his slider has always been a below average offering which limits his ability to be moved to relief if his stuff doesn't play as a starter.

In my opinion, he's the kind of guy you like to have in the system because he has some upside, but at the same time, he's not a sure thing. That upside makes him a guy with value who can be used to improve your team.

I like this trade because Miller shortens the game a bit and gives the Orioles a 3rd dominant reliever in that pen. He's a guy that misses bats and can be used equally effective against right-handers and left-handers. He just made a good Orioles bullpen and great Orioles bullpen.

To me, the playoffs are a crapshoot one you get in and although I would admit that the A's and Tigers have distanced themselves from the pack in the American League, the Orioles first goal should be to win the AL East. After that, it comes down to which team is hot and even though the A's and Tigers have to be the favorites to go to the World Series, once the O's get there I think they have a pretty good chance as well.

Andrew Miller gives the Orioles a better chance to win the AL East. That to me is worth the potential of Eduardo Rodriguez.

[Stotle]

True. Opinions, that what they are.

I remember the Bedard Trade. Solid Outstanding TOR guy to Seattle for some hopeful youth and veteran arm.

AJ & Tillman are here and look how they have done.

Bedard was never effective for Seattle.

So trading youth and prospects for Veterans, don't always work out as you expect them to.

Look at the list of prospects that have been traded for Cliff Lee. I don't believe any of them have panned out. Works both ways.

[Stotle]

It is a fairly high price. But since that piece he's taken a step back while repeating AA, and will almost certainly fall off all of those top-100 prospect lists. Stotle (who is one of the scouting writers at Baseball Prospectus) thinks it's a tossup whether he ends up as a back-end starter or a reliever.

I think the Miller/Rodriguez trade comes down to how Baltimore utilizes Miller and what he looks like through September/October. If they get him innings and have correctly judged his effectiveness, I have no problem giving up Rodriguez. Even if he does not get tons of innings, but is effective, and the Orioles put together a strong showing in the playoffs, I don't have a huge issue with the trade -- I get wanting to have depth in the pen and options. If he is ineffective, doesn't really swing the needle in any direction, and the Orioles fail to make the playoffs or bow out early, it'll but unfortunate that the O's gave up a potential cost controlled MLB starter.

I'm definitely willing to see how it shakes out. Would have preferred a more impactful move if there was one to be made -- I don't know if Baltimore had that option.

[Redskins Rick]

Look at the list of prospects that have been traded for Cliff Lee. I don't believe any of them have panned out. Works both ways.

True, it's a crapshot either way.

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree. But when a guy like Bundy has TJ, doesn't the chance of that take a hit a bit?

And when you talk about weighing out the pros and cons of each trade.

My current assessment:

Hardy

Davis

Wieters

Markakis

Cruz

All of these guys could potentially be gone in one to two years.

How did the O's acquire that talent? They got Hardy in a deal for a random minor league arm. They got Davis as a part of a trade for a relief pitcher. They drafted and developed Wieters. They extended Markakis after developing him, and he's slipped from his peak years. Cruz was a $8M flier.

Why can't they continue to look for similar opportunities, augmenting a core of Gausman, Machado, Bundy, Jones, Harvey, hopefully Schoop, etc?

So to me risking what Bundy COULD be, is worth giving up if it nets you a ACE type pitcher that could be a huge part of helping this team get deep into the playoffs. To me making a trade like that for a team that is so close doesn't make it a terrible trade.

But you're giving up someone who has a very high chance of being a strong asset for many years at below-market rates for a one-off chance at bumping up your playoff odds a few percent. The Baseball Prospectus team pushed out an article on odds of winning the World Series after yesterday's machinations. The result: The A's and Tigers increased their odds of a Championship by about 1% each, going from 14% to 15% for the A's and 12% to 12.5% for the Tigers.

If the O's had traded Bundy for Price their odds of winning the Series would have gone from 4.5% to 6%. That is what you're giving away six years of a top-10 prospect for?

No doubt it could hamper the team in two or three years. But like I said, if we lose those bats, whats it going to matter gow good Bundy is. We wipl have to start all over again.

Based on the possibility of losing those guys, I dont see how the Os arent in a state of "its now or never".

Of course it's not now or never. In 2012 it was never or never, and they made the playoffs. They have a core of Gausman, Bundy, Harvey, Jones, Machado, Showalter and Duquette and others to build on/with. Hopefully they'll have a little more cash in the drawer after this postseason. There is no reason they can't resign a few off your list, retool, find some bargains, and keep winning.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think the Miller/Rodriguez trade comes down to how Baltimore utilizes Miller and what he looks like through September/October. If they get him innings and have correctly judged his effectiveness, I have no problem giving up Rodriguez. Even if he does not get tons of innings, but is effective, and the Orioles put together a strong showing in the playoffs, I don't have a huge issue with the trade -- I get wanting to have depth in the pen and options. If he is ineffective, doesn't really swing the needle in any direction, and the Orioles fail to make the playoffs or bow out early, it'll but unfortunate that the O's gave up a potential cost controlled MLB starter.

I'm definitely willing to see how it shakes out. Would have preferred a more impactful move if there was one to be made -- I don't know if Baltimore had that option.

I think everyone would prefer to acquire the best possible players. But there's only so much a rational GM would give up for bumping up his World Series odds from 4% to 6 or 7%.

[Redskins Rick]

I think everyone would prefer to acquire the best possible players. But there's only so much a rational GM would give up for bumping up his World Series odds from 4% to 6 or 7%.

Question.

What does the acquisition of Miller to the bullpen do for the World Series odds?