Nice ESPN article on Jones and Markakis

[Reboulet'sStache]

I'd say this season is about what I'd expect from Markakis. Pay him to do about that for the next three years, discounted just a tad. Assume 4.5 - 6 WAR over the next three seasons.

Yeah, so like I said, you'd have to assume he doesn't decline at all over the next 3 years. Which you are.

[Lucky Jim]

Yeah' date=' so like I said, you'd have to assume he doesn't decline at all over the next 3 years. Which you are.[/quote']

Not sure of that, honestly. Markakis is at 1.9 fWAR through 129 games. Which puts him at about 2.3 or so for the year. Given that Frobby has included a range all the way down to 4.5, it sure seems like he's discounting a bit.

One thing you need to note: Markakis's WAR is always going to be lower than the Orioles' estimation of his value because they think he's a better defender than the metrics make out.

Add all that up, and I think Frobby is spot-on. Snark aside.

[Lucky Jim]

Markakis:

2010: 2.4 fWAR / 160 games

2011: 1.7 fWAR / 160 games

2012: 1.6 fWAR / 100 games

2013: 0.0 fWAR / 160 games

2014: 1.9 fWAR / 129 games

That's 7.6 fWAR over 549 games, if you set aside 2013 (just for this calculation). That puts him at roughly ~ 1.9/2.0 fWAR per 160.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Markakis:

2010: 2.4 fWAR / 160 games

2011: 1.7 fWAR / 160 games

2012: 1.6 fWAR / 100 games

2013: 0.0 fWAR / 160 games

2014: 1.9 fWAR / 129 games

That's 7.6 fWAR over 549 games, if you set aside 2013 (just for this calculation). That puts him at roughly ~ 1.9/2.0 fWAR per 160.

So he's basically an average to below average player at this point of his career. When deciding on a K, you have to assume a decline, unless you're the Yankees. So by year 3, realistically, you are looking at a platoon player.

[crawjo]

I would pick up Markakis's option but only because it's not my money and I'm sentimental. I know he's not productive enough to justify making $17.5 million next year. But it would suck watching him play for any other team.

[Lucky Jim]

So he's basically an average to below average player at this point of his career. When deciding on a K' date=' you have to assume a decline, unless you're the Yankees. So by year 3, realistically, you are looking at a platoon player.[/quote']

Realistically? Possibly. There's lots of stuff that factors in as well, including the fact that $6m a win may be a bit low, his consistency (avoiding uncertainty is often undervalued), the Orioles' valuation of his defense, inflation that creates value on the tail-end of the contract, and his value as a life-long Orioles.

Plus, different players age at different rates. Perhaps Markakis is someone who became 36 y.o at 28, and his current skill-set (good contact, occasional power, decent zone recognition and patience) will be relatively consistent. Perhaps not. The point is, it makes little sense to bemoan paying him something ~ $10m a year. He's 30 years old. He's not 35. (Which doesn't mean no decline, of course.) But aging trends haven't made much sense with Nick ever, so...

[WEAVERMAN]

No way you allocate 17.5M of your payroll to Nick Markakis next year.

Decline the option and negotiate a new deal 4 year deal.

[Frobby]

Yeah' date=' so like I said, you'd have to assume he doesn't decline at all over the next 3 years. Which you are.[/quote']

No, I'm not, at the low end. 1.6 WAR this season projects to 2.0 for a full year. So I'm assuming 3 years like this is his ceiling, 75% of that is his likely floor. And I don't care if that's not conservative enough for you, because I feel WAR underrates Nick's overall value.

[luismatos4prez]

WAR hates Nick's defense.

Shane Victorino looks like the closest comp. Though Nick was not as good offensively.

Don't get sucked into that. If you rate Nick as a +5 defender all 3 years (which is extraordinarily generous), then he's still only worth about 6.5 WAR over that timeframe. Significantly less than Victorino. He's not worth Victorino money.

[Reboulet'sStache]

No, I'm not, at the low end. 1.6 WAR this season projects to 2.0 for a full year. So I'm assuming 3 years like this is his ceiling, 75% of that is his likely floor. And I don't care if that's not conservative enough for you, because I feel WAR underrates Nick's overall value.

Does WAR get anyone right?

[Chavez Ravine]

My guesse is that the market for Nick will be lukewarm, and we sign him at a very team friendly deal. If the market, or his agent, gets squirrelly then he walks.

If we splurge it will be on Hardy. The thought of finding a shortstop gives GMs ulcers.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Does WAR get anyone right?

Not "undervalued" Orioles it would seem.

[wildcard]

I'll believe it when I see it. I say no way, but time will tell. I doubt anyone guarantees more than 3 and I think the O's quite probably give him a 3 year contract for about 10M per year. I don't see teams lining up to get him on a contract like that. Of course, if he were a FA, he'd have no trouble hooking on with a team. Most teams are going to look for a cheap option and take a chance on a minimum type salary guy giving them similar production. Markakis is a better bet to be a .750 OPS guy but most teams don't want to bet 10M on that.

Without a better word coming to mind, Markakis is not a sexy player. No speed, little power. Teams think they can sign a Steve Pearce or Nate Schierholz (last year) to give them average production in a corner OF spot. Markakis has more value to the Orioles than other teams simply because "he's our guy".

This thread has offered more information on comp. I'm more in the 3/36M range now. More than Crisp but less than Victorino.

[Frobby]

Don't get sucked into that. If you rate Nick as a +5 defender all 3 years (which is extraordinarily generous), then he's still only worth about 6.5 WAR over that timeframe. Significantly less than Victorino. He's not worth Victorino money.

Without getting into a long discussion of Markakis and Victorino, I'll simply say that there are market forces at work that favor Markakis: there are very few solid everyday outfielders on the market this year, there are tons of teams in dire need of a corner OF, and there is a lot more TV money swilling around now than when Victorino was on the market. So, if Markakis won't give us a discount and we're not willing to meet the market, we'd better have a Plan B.

Some info on the market: http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/142003-Here-s-why-the-market-for-Nick-Markakis-will-be-strong-this-winter?highlight=Markakis

[DrungoHazewood]

Does WAR get anyone right?

Not "undervalued" Orioles it would seem.

When you've decided someone is super-awesome, then you go look up his actual numbers you're apt to be disappointed sometimes. WAR does not include a "I've watched him for the last seven years and know he rocks no matter what the propeller heads say" factor. But there's nothing stopping anyone from making their own flavor of WAR and including that, and using the internet to try to convince the world you're right and they're wrong.