Nice ESPN article on Jones and Markakis

[Redskins Rick]

And ..............? You're saying that there are teams that would expect to get Nick Markakis's career years over the next 3 years?

Nope.

But, some people keep harping about Nick's age, like he is an old guy and his skillset is going to sharply decline.

IMO,

I think what you get this year, you will get for the next 2-3 years.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Loney was signed to a 3/21 contract, coming of of a .778 OPS. His career OPS is .755 and he's generally been close to that most of his career.

Nick Markakis has a career .796 OPS but 3 of the last 4 years (including this one have been below .760). He'll be looking for a contract, coming of a .685 OPS in 2013 and presumably a .750 OPS this year. It's about what have you done lately when looking for a contract. Loney coming off a .778 OPS, Markakis coming off something around that or worse. We'll agree to disagree. I think it's pretty close. I guess this winter will tell, especially if Markakis hits the market.

You mention Markakis's 2013 OPS of .685 as it relates to a presumed 2015 negotiation, but fail to mention Loney's 2012 OPS of .630 that came with the same amount of time prior to his pre-2014 3-year deal. We can agree to disagree, but I think Markakis edging out his numbers career-wise and currently, combined with the fact that Loney plays at a more bat-focused, rather than defense-focused, position(s) makes Markakis easily more valuable from a contract standpoint.

[Redskins Rick]

And I think the market for that is 3/30 or less.

You could very well be right,

I don't even try and guess numbers, I am so old school, anything more than vet min is too much.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Bill James is on record saying most ball players have their best years from 30-32.

Pretty sure that's the opposite of what James has said. 30-32 was the conventional wisdom that he debunked.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Pretty sure that's the opposite of what James has said. 30-32 was the conventional wisdom that he debunked.

ISn't part of the problem that poor players start being weeded out prior to this age, so you have different sets of data for these ages than you do for earlier sets? That is a guy who blatantly can't cut it in the MLB won't be getting consistent play time at ages 30, 31 and 32.

[Redskins Rick]

Pretty sure that's the opposite of what James has said. 30-32 was the conventional wisdom that he debunked.

Thanks for the clarification.

[Can_of_corn]

Pretty sure that's the opposite of what James has said. 30-32 was the conventional wisdom that he debunked.

Peak Age by Skill

Hitters

Metric Peak Age

Linear Weights 29.4

OBP 30.0

SLG 28.6

AVG 28.4

Walk Rate 32.3

2B+3B Rate 28.3

Home Run Rate 29.9

Pitchers

Metric Peak Age

ERA 29.2

Strikeout Rate 23.6

Walk Rate 32.5

Home Run Rate 27.4

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9933

[OFFNY]

Not that it's nothing we don't already know. But another reminder that we are lucky to have these two.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/50828/os-rely-on-steady-duo-of-jones-markakis

I've been calling Adam Jones and Nick Markakis the "Friendly Rivalry" since 2009, Jones' 2nd season with the Orioles, when (I believe) it became pretty clear that Jones was going to be a solid player overall for the foreseen future.

Regardless of whether or not we keep Markakis after this season, it's been great to have those two players as 2/3 of the Orioles' outfield for such a significant amount of time.

[wildcard]

Oakland signed Coco Crisp for 2/22 with a 13M vesting option. Crisp for be 35-37 years old. Nick will get more years.

Hunter Pence was 30 yr/old when he signed a 5/90m contract with SF last year. Pence is better than Nick with power and is a middle of the order hitter. Nick is probably not worth 18M per year.

BJ Upton got 5/75 from Atlanta before the 2013 season. 15 per. Upton was 29 yr/old for his 2013 season. Though this is thought of as a bad contract, Upton still got the contract as a FA.

Nick may get 5 years out on the open market. Maybe at 13-14M per. That is 5/65-70.

Nick has one advantage that most players don't have. A special relationship with the owner. Though Nick may negotiate with DD, he can always pull that ace from his pocket the way Brady did.

[MrOrange82]

Loney was signed to a 3/21 contract, coming of of a .778 OPS. His career OPS is .755 and he's generally been close to that most of his career.

Nick Markakis has a career .796 OPS but 3 of the last 4 years (including this one have been below .760). He'll be looking for a contract, coming of a .685 OPS in 2013 and presumably a .750 OPS this year. It's about what have you done lately when looking for a contract. Loney coming off a .778 OPS, Markakis coming off something around that or worse. We'll agree to disagree. I think it's pretty close. I guess this winter will tell, especially if Markakis hits the market.

Markakis' OPS+ per year, 2009-2014: 108, 120, 106, 126, 88, 111

Loney's OPS+ per year, 2009-2014: 104, 98, 110, 73, 117, 101

Markakis has a pretty clear advantage in offensive production, and he plays a more demanding position. I'd expect Nick to get a 3-4 year offer for $10-12 million per year. I'd be against anything more than that, but I don't think a Loney-type contract is realistic at all.

[luismatos4prez]

Oakland signed Coco Crisp for 2/22 with a 13M vesting option. Crisp for be 35-37 years old. Nick will get more years.

Hunter Pence was 30 yr/old when he signed a 5/90m contract with SF last year. Pence is better than Nick with power and is a middle of the order hitter. Nick is probably not worth 18M per year.

BJ Upton got 5/75 from Atlanta before the 2013 season. 15 per. Upton was 29 yr/old for his 2013 season. Though this is thought of as a bad contract, Upton still got the contract as a FA.

Nick may get 5 years out on the open market. Maybe at 13-14M per. That is 5/65-70.

Nick has one advantage that most players don't have. A special relationship with the owner. Though Nick may negotiate with DD, he can always pull that ace from his pocket the way Brady did.

I got this.

[table=width: 500]

[tr]

[td]Name[/td]

[td]WAR for 3 years prior[/td]

[td]Age in 1st yr of contract[/td]

[td]Years[/td]

[td]AAV[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Curtis Granderson[/td]

[td]9.6[/td]

[td]33[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]15[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Nick Swisher[/td]

[td]9.6[/td]

[td]32[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]14[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Michael Bourn[/td]

[td]14.7[/td]

[td]30[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]12[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Carlos Beltran[/td]

[td]10.9[/td]

[td]37[/td]

[td]3[/td]

[td]15[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Shane Victorino[/td]

[td]11[/td]

[td]32[/td]

[td]3[/td]

[td]13[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Cody Ross[/td]

[td]3.9[/td]

[td]32[/td]

[td]3[/td]

[td]8.67[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Angel Pagan[/td]

[td]10.4[/td]

[td]31[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]10[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Nick Markakis[/td]

[td]~3.5[/td]

[td]31[/td]

[td][/td]

[td][/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

I'd be alright with giving Nick something like 3/30-33 because I like the guy and who else can we count on for an OBP over .320? But he isn't that good. Giving him 12M or more per year is an overpay. He's a solid outfielder. No more, no less.

[ledzepp8]

What do you think Markakis would get on the open market? Is their a comparable player out there over the last few years? What team would give him a big contract?

Would he get 5/50 on the open market? I don't see a team out there that would do that. 3/30?

I agree but teams continue to give out stupid contracts all the time.

[Frobby]

Oakland signed Coco Crisp for 2/22 with a 13M vesting option. Crisp for be 35-37 years old. Nick will get more years.

Hunter Pence was 30 yr/old when he signed a 5/90m contract with SF last year. Pence is better than Nick with power and is a middle of the order hitter. Nick is probably not worth 18M per year.

BJ Upton got 5/75 from Atlanta before the 2013 season. 15 per. Upton was 29 yr/old for his 2013 season. Though this is thought of as a bad contract, Upton still got the contract as a FA.

Nick may get 5 years out on the open market. Maybe at 13-14M per. That is 5/65-70.

Nick has one advantage that most players don't have. A special relationship with the owner. Though Nick may negotiate with DD, he can always pull that ace from his pocket the way Brady did.

Upton is a CF, and was a couple of years younger than Nick. Playing a solid CF counts for a lot. Crisp also plays a credible CF. Nick will get 3 years, maybe 4. He will get somewhere between $8-13 mm/yr, depending on the length of the deal and how the rest of this season plays out.

[wildcard]

I got this.

[table=width: 500]

[tr]

[td]Name[/td]

[td]WAR for 3 years prior[/td]

[td]Age in 1st yr of contract[/td]

[td]Years[/td]

[td]AAV[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Curtis Granderson[/td]

[td]9.6[/td]

[td]33[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]15[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Nick Swisher[/td]

[td]9.6[/td]

[td]32[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]14[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Michael Bourn[/td]

[td]14.7[/td]

[td]30[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]12[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Carlos Beltran[/td]

[td]10.9[/td]

[td]37[/td]

[td]3[/td]

[td]15[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Shane Victorino[/td]

[td]11[/td]

[td]32[/td]

[td]3[/td]

[td]13[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Cody Ross[/td]

[td]3.9[/td]

[td]32[/td]

[td]3[/td]

[td]8.67[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Angel Pagan[/td]

[td]10.4[/td]

[td]31[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]10[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Nick Markakis[/td]

[td]~3.5[/td]

[td]31[/td]

[td][/td]

[td][/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

I'd be alright with giving Nick something like 3/30-33 because I like the guy and who else can we count on for an OBP over .320? But he isn't that good. Giving him 12M or more per year is an overpay. He's a solid outfielder. No more, no less.

WAR hates Nick's defense.

Shane Victorino looks like the closest comp. Though Nick was not as good offensively.

[wildcard]

Upton is a CF, and was a couple of years younger than Nick. Playing a solid CF counts for a lot. Crisp also plays a credible CF. Nick will get 3 years, maybe 4. He will get somewhere between $8-13 mm/yr, depending on the length of the deal and how the rest of this season plays out.

If Crisp got 11m per., I don't see Nick getting less.