Leaving out Kevin Gausman from the PO rotation not smart

[Prayin4Reign]

Leaving Vlad in the clean-up spot had very little consequence on the Orioles that year. They were just a bad team, with terrible pitching which hadn't matured yet. Although in September they started to show some life.

All Buck did was show a guy respect who was at the end of his career and had hit 29 home runs and produced 115 RBI the year before. That's the type of thing that gains favor with players and free agents to be. There's no reason to try to show someone up and move them down to 6th or 7th in order to eek out an extra win in a season with little to gain. Buck is smarter than you, me and anybody else here.

Nonsense.

Potentially costing the teams wins shows favor with free agents to be? Batting Vlad 6th is showing him up? Ridiculous.

You are doing the rest of the team a disservice by kowtowing to vets and putting them where they no longer should be.

I also notice you didn't mention the playing time Roberts shouldn't have had in 2012, a season in which a few more wins could have resulted in a divisional title.

We don't agree on the matter.

In every way imaginable the Orioles just weren't a good team that year. Their pitching was terrible. Batting Vlad lower in the batting order wasn't going to make a hill of beans. That was the least of their problems. The major offense was pitching.

If you're someone that lives and dies with every game I can possibly understand. If so I sympathize. But Buck had his reasons. Maybe Buck didn't think Jones was ready to hit clean-up, maybe he didn't want to give him that mantle just yet. Maybe he wanted to push him that much more before giving something to him. He was still only 25. Maybe he said I'm not going to put that pressure on Wieters because Matt has his hands full with this pitching staff. The same could apply to JJ, I don't want JJ to start thinking offense more than defense. He's going to be our defensive foundation.

Buck likes everyone to play a role. Maybe that's how he saw Vlad's role being that year. He had produced the year before. And no, I don't believe my assertion towards free agents was ridiculous. The point of the matter is we don't know what goes on behind the scenes. Could that had been a selling point to Vlad, it doesn't seem too outside the realm of possibility.

As far as Roberts in 2012 I don't have the time or interest to look into that. I think others have touched on that.

If you want to find fault with someone, anyone, you'll be able to. If you're trying to find fault w/Buck have at it, but why?

[Can_of_corn]

If you want to find fault with someone, anyone, you'll be able to. If you're trying to find fault w/Buck have at it, but why?

I want the team to win.

Now he could certainly go out there and bomb (anyone of the six could) but I think Gausman gives the team a better chance at winning.

[glenn__davis]

I want the team to win.

Now he could certainly go out there and bomb (anyone of the six could) but I think Gausman gives the team a better chance at winning.

And if Buck thinks the same thing, he will start Gausman. The examples you gave earlier of Guerrero and Roberts, as RZNJ and Praying4Reign have pointed out, are not particularly relevant here for various reasons.

Now, if you want to make the argument that Buck places too much emphasis on veteranosity, I can understand that argument a little bit better. But that is a different argument than saying he doesn't want to disrespect the veterans.

Buck wants to win. He's going to do whatever it takes to win. If that means hurting Bud Norris' feelings, I'm certain he is OK with it. If he believes Gausman should start, Gausman will start.

[Johnny Cobba]

The decision about what to do with Bud and Gausman is not so narrow a question as "who is the better pitcher?" To define the decision point more accurately, I think, involves a broader thought process --- i.e., "Bud and Gausman are both assets at our disposal; how can we deploy to give us the best chance of winning 3 games against the Tigers?"

One of them appears likely to head to the bullpen. That Gausman is quite possibly the better option for this role can't possibly be a very controversial position. He pitched out of the bullpen for us last season, so he's much more accustomed to that role and that different routine. And, incidentally, he was exceptional in that role, even last year as an extremely green rookie. On a more specific level, he can get away with primarily (exclusively?) throwing his two great pitches in that role instead of having to try to force some breaking balls.

As for the better fit for the starting spot, obviously the numbers say it's a close call. Their ERAs and xFIPs are almost identical, with Gausman posting the better FIP largely on the back of a likely unsustainably low HR/FB rate.

Which means it comes down to more than just the bare numbers. As it should. We're not talking about who's the "better" pitcher or who should make more money or which guy to pick up in a fantasy league. We're talking about a situation in which one of these guys will be making his first ever MLB postseason start. On the road. In what will necessarily be either a possible clinch game or a possible elimination game. Quite possibly facing off against Justin Verlander, one of the best postseason pitchers of this generation. Metrics are great for a lot of things --- but the "intangibles" that go into determining performance in a situation like that are absolutely off the freakin' charts. Talent, even "true talent," is only a small ingredient in that recipe.

And that's why we have Buck. He is by absolutely every account one of the keenest observers of the mind/psyche of baseball players in the world. He's spent every day of the past 6 months with these guys, and longer than that with most of them. He knows their personalities, their mindsets, their attitudes. He's the most attentive, detail-oriented manager I've ever seen in action, and he's been using all this time to get a read on these guys. The types of situations they thrive in, the types of situations he needs to protect them from, and the optimal ways to maximize the team's performance as a whole.

As fans, there's nothing wrong with breaking down all the stats and all the metrics to reach our most informed opinion on the issue. That, along with what we observe during the games, is the extent of the information we have to take into consideration. Those of us who are diehards have much more informed opinions than casual Birds fans and even the national talking head analysts. But Buck has an entirely different level of access and information that we simply don't have. And beyond that, he's also damn good at what he does. Personally, I think that for us as fans to suggest that we can make a better decision than he can --- despite being almost entirely uninformed about the utterly crucial "intangible" side of deciding how best to deploy these guys --- is sheer hubris. It's really fun and interesting to banter about and discuss as fans...but ultimately, I think all the signs say "In Buck We Trust" for a reason.

Great post. More of this around these parts. Please.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[brianod]

Gausman is a big part of our future. Is Norris? I haven't seen anyone mention that but since the decision is so close, that should be considered.

[glenn__davis]

Gausman is a big part of our future. Is Norris? I haven't seen anyone mention that but since the decision is so close, that should be considered.

I don't think that should be considered at all. The only thing that should be considered is who gives us the best chance to win the game on that day.

[Redskins Rick]

I don't think that should be considered at all. The only thing that should be considered is who gives us the best chance to win the game on that day.

Keep in mind, Schoop is one of the main players and part of the reason the team is where it's at.

You go with what got you there.

[glenn__davis]

Keep in mind, Schoop is one of the main players and part of the reason the team is where it's at.

You go with what got you there.

I wasn't talking about Schoop.

[Aristotelian]

Also should add - if we're down 2-1 going into Game 4 then I think you start Tillman on short rest.

No. Absolutely not. Starting on short rest is an act of desperation that almost never pays off. Just look at the cumulative stats of guys pitching on short rest. They are pretty ugly and I don't see Tillman as the Kershaw-type guy who can buck the trend. I also don't see him as so significantly better than our #2 options that you would risk it.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1812391-does-throwing-top-pitchers-on-short-rest-pay-off-in-the-postseason

Postseason Starts on Short Rest, 2000-2013

Starts IP ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 H/9 HR/9 Avg. GSc Team Record

54 287.0 4.80 1.42 8.2 3.5 9.2 1.1 48.7 20-34

[Prayin4Reign]

I want the team to win.

Now he could certainly go out there and bomb (anyone of the six could) but I think Gausman gives the team a better chance at winning.

We both want the same thing there!

Gausman will still help out. We might find out having him in the bullpen for the playoffs will make us even stronger.

[Prayin4Reign]

The decision about what to do with Bud and Gausman is not so narrow a question as "who is the better pitcher?" To define the decision point more accurately, I think, involves a broader thought process --- i.e., "Bud and Gausman are both assets at our disposal; how can we deploy to give us the best chance of winning 3 games against the Tigers?"

One of them appears likely to head to the bullpen. That Gausman is quite possibly the better option for this role can't possibly be a very controversial position. He pitched out of the bullpen for us last season, so he's much more accustomed to that role and that different routine. And, incidentally, he was exceptional in that role, even last year as an extremely green rookie. On a more specific level, he can get away with primarily (exclusively?) throwing his two great pitches in that role instead of having to try to force some breaking balls.

As for the better fit for the starting spot, obviously the numbers say it's a close call. Their ERAs and xFIPs are almost identical, with Gausman posting the better FIP largely on the back of a likely unsustainably low HR/FB rate.

Which means it comes down to more than just the bare numbers. As it should. We're not talking about who's the "better" pitcher or who should make more money or which guy to pick up in a fantasy league. We're talking about a situation in which one of these guys will be making his first ever MLB postseason start. On the road. In what will necessarily be either a possible clinch game or a possible elimination game. Quite possibly facing off against Justin Verlander, one of the best postseason pitchers of this generation. Metrics are great for a lot of things --- but the "intangibles" that go into determining performance in a situation like that are absolutely off the freakin' charts. Talent, even "true talent," is only a small ingredient in that recipe.

And that's why we have Buck. He is by absolutely every account one of the keenest observers of the mind/psyche of baseball players in the world. He's spent every day of the past 6 months with these guys, and longer than that with most of them. He knows their personalities, their mindsets, their attitudes. He's the most attentive, detail-oriented manager I've ever seen in action, and he's been using all this time to get a read on these guys. The types of situations they thrive in, the types of situations he needs to protect them from, and the optimal ways to maximize the team's performance as a whole.

As fans, there's nothing wrong with breaking down all the stats and all the metrics to reach our most informed opinion on the issue. That, along with what we observe during the games, is the extent of the information we have to take into consideration. Those of us who are diehards have much more informed opinions than casual Birds fans and even the national talking head analysts. But Buck has an entirely different level of access and information that we simply don't have. And beyond that, he's also damn good at what he does. Personally, I think that for us as fans to suggest that we can make a better decision than he can --- despite being almost entirely uninformed about the utterly crucial "intangible" side of deciding how best to deploy these guys --- is sheer hubris. It's really fun and interesting to banter about and discuss as fans...but ultimately, I think all the signs say "In Buck We Trust" for a reason.

One of the best posts I've read in some time.

Your last line sums things up perfectly. Can't be said better.

[brianod]

I don't think that should be considered at all. The only thing that should be considered is who gives us the best chance to win the game on that day.

I'm not saying it should be the main consideration, only a part of the decision. I'm sure Buck will keep it in mind.

[glenn__davis]

I'm not saying it should be the main consideration, only a part of the decision. I'm sure Buck will keep it in mind.

The only consideration to be made regarding their futures is Gausman's innings count. Maybe that will play a part in the decision making. But other than that the future, at least for the next few weeks, is irrelevant. Who gives you the best chance to win the game today? That's all that matters.

[Redskins Rick]

The only consideration to be made regarding their futures is Gausman's innings count. Maybe that will play a part in the decision making. But other than that the future, at least for the next few weeks, is irrelevant. Who gives you the best chance to win the game today? That's all that matters.

I believe Buck managed Gausman's innings, so it would not be factor in the post season.

[PaulFolk]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.

I thought the previous numbers on Tilly and short rest are very good.

There are no previous numbers. Tillman has never pitched on 3 days' rest in his career.