Chen vs Right-handed heavy Tigers lineup

[weams]

The funny thing is, I don't think we actually disagree. I think the decision to start Chen was stupid. I don't think Buck is stupid, in general or even frequently, because he started Chen. But that was a pretty dumb move (that worked out only because the O's of 2014 have a knack for spitting on the odds).

Turns out that he was right though. He still has Gonzalez, Ubaldo, and Norris plus Tillman for game five and Gausman after tomorrow. He is in a better position with the team on several levels for starting Chen. Even though I wanted him removed after three yesterday.

[Crazysilver03]

and here is Buck, once again too slow to make the pitching change as he hangs Gausman out to dry against the heart of the best hitting #3,#4,#5 hitters in the majors.

Good thing we have that great bullpen

Color me absolutely shocked that you abandoned this thread after the losing stopped. Too many unintelligble comments to "analyze" them all. The fact you are worried about Porcello is amusing considering he has been below average since mid-August.

[Aristotelian]

I am fine with Buck starting Chen. I can see why he was just not ready to trust KG in a playoff start. It looked like it was working. Chen was feeling the adrenaline and got gassed early. It happens. My problem was more with Buck leaving him in too long, but the inning got away from him quickly and Gausman needed time to warm, so I can see Buck's side of that too.

[weams]

I am fine with Buck starting Chen. I can see why he was just not ready to trust KG in a playoff start. It looked like it was working. Chen was feeling the adrenaline and got gassed early. It happens. My problem was more with Buck leaving him in too long, but the inning got away from him quickly and Gausman needed time to warm, so I can see Buck's side of that too.

I would have loved to have a bridge reliever, but we are playing one short. Like I said. Buck trusts his guys and it worked out in spades.

[MrOrange82]

Turns out that he was right though. He still has Gonzalez, Ubaldo, and Norris plus Tillman for game five and Gausman after tomorrow. He is in a better position with the team on several levels for starting Chen. Even though I wanted him removed after three yesterday.

I'm sorry, weams, but no. Credit Buck with guiding/mentoring a team that has the stomach to come back in a game like that, but he deserves no credit whatsoever for starting a pitcher who got knocked around (and out of the game) after three innings. Starts as bad as Chen's are never part of "the plan," no matter the end result.

[weams]

I'm sorry, weams, but no. Credit Buck with guiding/mentoring a team that has the stomach to come back in a game like that, but he deserves no credit whatsoever for starting a pitcher who got knocked around (and out of the game) after three innings. Starts as bad as Chen's are never part of "the plan," no matter the end result.

Never said it was part of a plan. Said it worked out just fine thank you. Feel free to criticize Buck's folly all you want. There are plenty of folk that have over the years. In a post season game a three inning no run start is just dandy.

[Aristotelian]

I'm sorry, weams, but no. Credit Buck with guiding/mentoring a team that has the stomach to come back in a game like that, but he deserves no credit whatsoever for starting a pitcher who got knocked around (and out of the game) after three innings. Starts as bad as Chen's are never part of "the plan," no matter the end result.

Buck is playing to win the World Series. Chen is part of that plan. That means starting him against DET. I know we have to beat DET first, but you don't go moving your second best pitcher to the bullpen just because matchups are unfavorable. It would be one thing if you had a reason to think Gausman could guarantee a win in that spot, but there is no reason to think that.

[TonySoprano]

Color me absolutely shocked that you abandoned this thread after the losing stopped. Too many unintelligble comments to "analyze" them all. The fact you are worried about Porcello is amusing considering he has been below average since mid-August.

Chen had an ERA from August - September of 2.90. How did that work out for us? In April/May we had only 2 ER vs Porcello in 12.2 IP (ERA 1.42). We'll see which Porcello faces us tomorrow, but I take nothing for granted.

[MrOrange82]

Never said it was part of a plan. Said it worked out just fine thank you. Feel free to criticize Buck's folly all you want. There are plenty of folk that have over the years. In a post season game a three inning no run start is just dandy.

And 3 2/3 innings with 5 ER is not. As others have already pointed out, Gausman had to get ready to enter the game in a hurry, which made those three innings much less dandy. Thankfully, Gausman came through in a big way.

I'm surprised that no one's argued that Norris and Gonzalez haven't fared all that well against the Tigers so far, whereas the Tigers hadn't seen Chen much at all. Maybe that was discussed elsewhere. I still would've rather seen a righty in game two, but I'm not complaining about the outcome.

[weams]

Buck is playing to win the World Series. Chen is part of that plan. That means starting him against DET. I know we have to beat DET first, but you don't go moving your second best pitcher to the bullpen just because matchups are unfavorable. It would be one thing if you had a reason to think Gausman could guarantee a win in that spot, but there is no reason to think that.

The only thing you could possibly second guess Buck on was not having an arm up to bring in quickly to stop the bleeding. It just happened so quickly. There is not statistical model to win a short series. Trout does not have a hit.

[Crazysilver03]

Chen had an ERA from August - September of 2.90. How did that work out for us? In April/May we had only 2 ER vs Porcello in 12.2 IP (ERA 1.42). We'll see which Porcello faces us tomorrow, but I take nothing for granted.

Not really a fair comparison though. Most people saw that Chen vs Detroit was a terrible match up. Porcello vs O's doesn't seem good nor bad really. Channeling your inner OldFan a bit? I don't take anything for granted but just ribbing someone who takes pleasure in the terribleness of this playoff team.

[Three Run Homer]

I can understand why Buck felt like he needed to give Chen a start--he led the team in wins and was second in IP, and his overall numbers this season were quite good. Still, I wonder, would Buck have started Chen had his regular season record been 10-9 (like Gonzo) or 7-7 (like Gausman) instead of 16-6, all other things equal?

To me it's not obvious that Chen should start in the ALCS. As an earlier post pointed out, he doesn't have a good history against the Royals or Angels, and both teams hit lefties better than righties.