Orioles Discussing Four-Year Deal With Nick Markakis (Signs w/ATL)

[Can_of_corn]

Ok I get it now but I don't know why you want another team to sign Markakis and for him to go on to have a great career with them.

I was just stating the stratagem I would use.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Well isn't that a huge pile of speculation?

I hope Nick has enough sense to treat it as a business.

Yeah, it's a bunch of crap. Nick was going to test the market. Moreso when the QO wasn't hanging on him.

Just a matter of where it falls between RZ's 3/24 estimate or the NY Times 4/54. I've got the greatest respect for RZ but I think it's closer to the NY Times number. Not that he deserves it, I'm just expecting a lot of money in the market place and his timing is great.

Thankfully that should exclude us from being stupid. Saved from ourselves as you said.

[Frobby]

Well isn't that a huge pile of speculation?

I hope Nick has enough sense to treat it as a business.

The distinction between personal and business is highly artificial.

[O's are Legends]

Ok I get it now but I don't know why you want another team to sign Markakis and for him to go on to have a great career with them.

If he becomes great for another team it may be a surprise, he's not going to get any faster and his ops the last 2 seasons. .685 and .729

[Can_of_corn]

Yeah, it's a bunch of crap. Nick was going to test the market. Moreso when the QO wasn't hanging on him.

Just a matter of where it falls between RZ's 3/24 estimate or the NY Times 4/54. I've got the greatest respect for RZ but I think it's closer to the NY Times number. Not that he deserves it, I'm just expecting a lot of money in the market place and his timing is great.

Thankfully that should exclude us from being stupid. Saved from ourselves as you said.

I think it is possible that if the Orioles had hit him with the right number he would not have tested the market. I just don't think that number was close to what the Orioles' initial number was.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think it is possible that if the Orioles had hit him with the right number he would not have tested the market. I just don't think that number was close to what the Orioles' initial number was.

Yes, agreed. I suspect the "right number" was not right for us. We shall see. I'm very curious to see where he falls.

[CA-ORIOLE]

The distinction between personal and business is highly artificial.

I never spent any time in the "corporate" world, but imo baseball is infinitely more cold and calculating than a normal business environment when it comes to compensation.

[Frobby]

I think it is possible that if the Orioles had hit him with the right number he would not have tested the market. I just don't think that number was close to what the Orioles' initial number was.

Could be. It's all speculation though. We have no idea what offers have been exchanged, or what other teams are whispering in Nick's agent's ear.

I remember a few years ago when Paul Konerko flirted with us for weeks, then signed with the White Sox for about $1 mm/yr less than we offered. Sometimes these things can drag on for a while.

[24fps]

Yeah, it's a bunch of crap. Nick was going to test the market. Moreso when the QO wasn't hanging on him.

Just a matter of where it falls between RZ's 3/24 estimate or the NY Times 4/54. I've got the greatest respect for RZ but I think it's closer to the NY Times number. Not that he deserves it, I'm just expecting a lot of money in the market place and his timing is great.

Thankfully that should exclude us from being stupid. Saved from ourselves as you said.

I do too. I think 3/33 with a vesting option would be a bargain for the Orioles under the circumstances. I would be half his previous contract with a bone thrown in at the end in lieu of a raise. That would be the absolute most I would be comfortable with, but it would be completely understandable if he considered it an insult, and a degrading one at that, within the context of his previous contract.

My guess is that if Nick is back with the O's, it's because he was overpaid.

[Frobby]

There's no way Markakis would have turned down the contract that Hardy got and it's probable that the Orioles offered less than the Hardy contract. I have a hard time believing that Markakis and his agent would call a 3/30 or 4/40 contract "lowballing" but I guess anything is possible.

I would not think so, either. Something under $10 mm/yr, maybe.

[AlbionHero]

Golden Gloves are awarde based on a combination of saber metric fielding stats and votes by major league managers and coaches. I think Nick is rated much higher by real life experts over what people on this board rate him based on one questionable stat ranking.

Depends on what "Real Life Experts" we're going by. The Fielding Bible awards are also done by experts who dedicate their lives to covering the game and making new stats, and Markakis would never sniff one of those awards.

These are their winners:

The 2014 Fielding Bible Award winners are:

Multi-Position ? Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals

First Base ? Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers

Second Base ? Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox

Third Base ? Josh Donaldson, Oakland Athletics

Shortstop ? Andrelton Simmons, Atlanta Braves

Left Field ? Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals

Center Field ? Juan Lagares, New York Mets

Right Field ? Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves

Catcher ? Jonathan Lucroy, Milwaukee Brewers

Pitcher ? Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros

I can't really trust baseball manager choices when they constantly pick guys with reputations as good fielders who aren't really that good. Anyone with two eyes could tell you Lorenzo Cain was a better CF than Jones or that Kiermaier was a better RF than Markakis even without any kind of advanced stats, but they don't really have the reputation or been around long enough for the managers to care about them.

[AlbionHero]

Heres a blog post by Joe Posnanski, one of the people on the Fielding Bible voting committee:

http://joeposnanski.com/joeblogs/fielding-bible-and-gold-gloves/

Right field

AL Gold Glove: Nick Markakis, Baltimore

NL Gold Glove: Jason Heyward, Atlanta

Fielding Bible: Jason Heyward

OK, I’ll grant that I might be missing it on Jones. But I’m not giving you Markakis. I’m just not giving it to you. The fact that Nick Markakis has now won two Gold Gloves is a complete mystery to me, the biggest mystery of this year.

Markakis’ defensive numbers are blah. He hasn’t had a positive Defensive WAR or a positive Dewan Plus/Minus since 2008. And to me he LOOKS utterly mediocre with none of the grace of Adam Jones. Mark Simon did vote Markakis third and Bill James voted him sixth, so there must be something they’re seeing. I don’t see it. I didn’t see him as a Top 10 guy at all — and then I saw him in the playoffs and he seemed a real liability, which I will admit is probably just confirmation bias.

Anyway, even if you think Markakis is a good outfielder, I don’t see how you can give him a Gold Glove in a league with Josh Reddick and Daniel Nava and Kevin Kiermeyer, I just don’t get this one at all.

[El Gordo]

If I were a GM I would see Markakis as a best case 3 year 6 W player. I wouldn't want to give him a 4th year. 4/54 is absurd. if I were the O's GM, I would make a first offer of 4/32M and then be willing to go as high as 4/36 with some incentives or a vesting/club option to take it higher. Nick wants years from the O's.

[DrungoHazewood]

Heres a blog post by Joe Posnanski, one of the people on the Fielding Bible voting committee:

http://joeposnanski.com/joeblogs/fielding-bible-and-gold-gloves/

Having looked at the numbers a little bit, I think Nick winning was the GG equivalent of a 2012 Republican primary. There were like 14 candidates, no favorite at all, wide disagreement about who was even acceptable, and no real star among them. So I don't know if they ever announce the voting+metrics stuff, but I'd assume that Nick won with the equivalent of, like, 22% of the vote. Just looking at UZR, Aoki, Markakis, Reddick and Bautista were all within a run and a half of each other, and the only AL RFers who were significantly better on rate were Kiermaier and Nava who each played about 1/3rd of the season in RF. When you have a system with many indistinguishable candidates and no requirement for a majority to win you'll sometimes get unusual results.

[POR]

Heres a blog post by Joe Posnanski, one of the people on the Fielding Bible voting committee:

http://joeposnanski.com/joeblogs/fielding-bible-and-gold-gloves/

Reddick (99), Nava (57) and Kiermeyer (57) each started less than 100 games in RF. I think Markakis won the GG primarily because of the lack of ful time RFers in the AL this year.

Also, what did Markakis do in playoffs that would make him seem like a defensive liability. I don't recall him getting a lot of action in the field during the playoffs.