Orioles avoided arbitration with... (leave some very big differences as well)

[Frobby]

So, here is how I see it:

Britton: He's at $4.2 mm, O's are at $2.2 mm, MLBTradeRumors had projected $3.2 mm. I think the O's have the winning side of this case and he should be signed for $3 mm or less.

Norris: He's at $10.25 mm, O's are at $7.5 mm, MLBTradeRumors had projected $8.7 mm. I think the O's win this one easily and if they can't settle at $8 mm or less they should take to to arbitration.

Pearce: He's at $5.4 mm, O's are at $2.0 mm, MLBTradeRumors had projected $2.2 mm. I think the O's have the better side again and it should settle for $3 mm or less or they should take it to arbitration.

Gonzalez: He's at $3.95 mm, O's are at $2.5 mm, MLBTRadeRumors had projected $3.7 mm. I see this one as a split the baby case, with the O's possibly having to go more than halfway.

Flaherty: He's at $1.5 mm, O's are at $900 k, MLBTradeRumors had projected $1.0 mm. The O's have the better of this case, but I think they'll just spilt the difference rather than fight it out.

De Aza: He's at $5.65 mm, O's are at $5 mm, MLBTradeRumors had projected $5.95 mm. The O's have already done well here, I think they'll go a bit more than halfway to settle this.

In total, the remaining players are at $30.95 mm, the O's are at $20.1 mm, MLBTradeRumors is at $24.75 mm. That's a pretty big gap and you can see why the Orioles may have been a bit reluctant to spend every last dollar of their payroll without knowing the outcome of these cases. My opinion is that the O's have the better of most of these cases and can settle or arbitrate them for $24.15 mm or less.

[Number5]

So, here is how I see it:

Britton: He's at $4.2 mm, O's are at $3.2 mm, MLBTradeRumors had projected $3.2 mm. I think the O's have the winning side of this case and he should be signed for $3 mm or less.

Norris: He's at $10.25 mm, O's are at $7.5 mm, MLBTradeRumors had projected $8.7 mm. I think the O's win this one easily and if they can't settle at $8 mm or less they should take to to arbitration.

Pearce: He's at $5.4 mm, O's are at $2.0 mm, MLBTradeRumors had projected $2.2 mm. I think the O's have the better side again and it should settle for $3 mm or less or they should take it to arbitration.

Gonzalez: He's at $3.95 mm, O's are at $2.5 mm, MLBTRadeRumors had projected $3.7 mm. I see this one as a split the baby case, with the O's possibly having to go more than halfway.

Flaherty: He's at $1.5 mm, O's are at $900 k, MLBTradeRumors had projected $1.0 mm. The O's have the better of this case, but I think they'll just spilt the difference rather than fight it out.

De Aza: He's at $5.65 mm, O's are at $5 mm, MLBTradeRumors had projected $5.95 mm. The O's have already done well here, I think they'll go a bit more than halfway to settle this.

In total, the remaining players are at $30.95 mm, the O's are at $21.1 mm, MLBTradeRumors is at $24.75 mm. That's a pretty big gap and you can see why the Orioles may have been a bit reluctant to spend every last dollar of their payroll without knowing the outcome of these cases. My opinion is that the O's have the better of most of these cases and can settle or arbitrate them for $24.15 mm or less.

I thought I read that the Orioles were at $2.2 on Britton. Are you sure that they are at $3.2? If I'm right about the $2.2, I think both sides face the possibility of losing on this, so I see them coming pretty close to MLBTR's $3.2 as an in-the-middle compromise.

I agree with you on all the others, and I think the Orioles are in very good position vs. both Pearce and Norris, which are the biggest dollar difference cases.

[Frobby]

I thought I read that the Orioles were at $2.2 on Britton. Are you sure that they are at $3.2? If I'm right about the $2.2, I think both sides face the possibility of losing on this, so I see them coming pretty close to MLBTR's $3.2 as an in-the-middle compromise.

I agree with you on all the others, and I think the Orioles are in very good position vs. both Pearce and Norris, which are the biggest dollar difference cases.

It was a typo. It's $2.2 mm. I will fix it.

[fearthenoodle]

Here's my own personal breakdown. Completely just my opinion.

Alejandro De Aza

MLBTR: $5.9MM

Agent: $5.65MM

Team: $5MM

First, it's nice that regardless of the outcome here, he is going to make less than projected. A small gap, and an almost certain settlement case.

Bud Norris

MLBTR: $8.7MM

Agent: $10.25MM

Player: $7.5MM

The midpoint for Bud is almost exactly where MLBTR had the contract pegged, so despite the wide gap, I think they find common ground, probably right around $9MM. This would be a risky case for the Orioles to take to court, even with their legal team.

Zach Britton

MLBTR: $3.2MM

Agent: $4.2MM

Team: $2.2MM

Again, the midpoint is exactly where MLBTR has their projection. The Orioles also tend to settle with Boras clients (see Davis/Wieters), so I think this one is resolved also. Definitely not the "file and trial" that Duquette mentioned.

I'd be surprised if any of those 3 went to court. The other 3 are more up in the air.

Miguel Gonzalez

MLBTR: $3.7MM

Agent: $3.95MM

Team: $2.5MM

Midpoint is $3.225MM. I think this one could go to court, but ultimately I think this one is settled too. The projections come out close to Gonzo's number, and he'd have a fairly strong case in court, since the arbitrator does not look at the saber stats that don't favor Gonzo and only considers things like WINZ and ERA.

Ryan Flaherty

MLBTR: $1MM

Agent: $1.5MM

Team: $900K

You may think Flaherty is likely to settle since the gap is not very wide, but I don't think Flaherty has any chance to win if this goes to the arbitrator. I think there is a fairly good chance that this is the "file and trial" case. His numbers have been bad all 3 years, but were actually worse in 2014 than 2013 across the board. The last time the O's went to court, it was over a similarly small number. Brad Bergesen filed at $1.2MM and the team at $800K, an even smaller gap than Flaherty.

Steve Pearce

MLBTR: $2.2MM

Player: $5.4MM

Team: $2.0MM

I'm not sure what to make of this one, but I think Pearce's agent may have overshot here and despite his numbers, I'm not sure he can win over an arbitrator. The midpoint is $3.7MM, which is still almost 70% more than even the projected salary so I'm not sure if they will find a middle ground. The one caveat is I could see the team trying to negotiate a multi-year deal with Pearce.

[Frobby]

Here's a snip from an article a couple of years ago about H. Russell Smouse.

From early December through January, Smouse puts on his (figurative) Orioles cap and concentrates on building and researching arbitration cases. Smouse said these cases are built on finding comparable players with the same position and talent and proposing a salary based on what these players get paid.

“A lot of intense preparation goes into it with the data we use and comparing lots of players,” Smouse said.

Most cases that go to an arbitration hearing involve pitchers, he said. If the player and team cannot agree on a salary, each side proposes a figure during a four-hour hearing before a panel, which adopts one of the proposals within 24 hours, Smouse said. Those cases are heard in February in either Florida or Arizona every year.

“We try to file a number you think will establish a midpoint between the two numbers and can prevail,” Smouse said.

http://thedailyrecord.com/2012/04/04/for-the-love-of-the-birds-and-the-law/#ixzz3PSoqy4Hh

Smouse, by the way, is now 81 years old.

[Bahama O's Fan]

So when do these cases go to be heard?

[Frobby]

So when do these cases go to be heard?

Feb. 1-19 are the dates all cases get heard. I don't know specific dates for the O's.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Feb. 1-19 are the dates all cases get heard. I don't know specific dates for the O's.

Okay, so still a long time for stare downs before they decide if they want to battle PA's legal team.

[atomic]

Here's my own personal breakdown. Completely just my opinion.

Alejandro De Aza

MLBTR: $5.9MM

Agent: $5.65MM

Team: $5MM

First, it's nice that regardless of the outcome here, he is going to make less than projected. A small gap, and an almost certain settlement case.

Bud Norris

MLBTR: $8.7MM

Agent: $10.25MM

Player: $7.5MM

The midpoint for Bud is almost exactly where MLBTR had the contract pegged, so despite the wide gap, I think they find common ground, probably right around $9MM. This would be a risky case for the Orioles to take to court, even with their legal team.

Zach Britton

MLBTR: $3.2MM

Agent: $4.2MM

Team: $2.2MM

Again, the midpoint is exactly where MLBTR has their projection. The Orioles also tend to settle with Boras clients (see Davis/Wieters), so I think this one is resolved also. Definitely not the "file and trial" that Duquette mentioned.

I'd be surprised if any of those 3 went to court. The other 3 are more up in the air.

Miguel Gonzalez

MLBTR: $3.7MM

Agent: $3.95MM

Team: $2.5MM

Midpoint is $3.225MM. I think this one could go to court, but ultimately I think this one is settled too. The projections come out close to Gonzo's number, and he'd have a fairly strong case in court, since the arbitrator does not look at the saber stats that don't favor Gonzo and only considers things like WINZ and ERA.

Ryan Flaherty

MLBTR: $1MM

Agent: $1.5MM

Team: $900K

You may think Flaherty is likely to settle since the gap is not very wide, but I don't think Flaherty has any chance to win if this goes to the arbitrator. I think there is a fairly good chance that this is the "file and trial" case. His numbers have been bad all 3 years, but were actually worse in 2014 than 2013 across the board. The last time the O's went to court, it was over a similarly small number. Brad Bergesen filed at $1.2MM and the team at $800K, an even smaller gap than Flaherty.

Steve Pearce

MLBTR: $2.2MM

Player: $5.4MM

Team: $2.0MM

I'm not sure what to make of this one, but I think Pearce's agent may have overshot here and despite his numbers, I'm not sure he can win over an arbitrator. The midpoint is $3.7MM, which is still almost 70% more than even the projected salary so I'm not sure if they will find a middle ground. The one caveat is I could see the team trying to negotiate a multi-year deal with Pearce.

I don't think the team wiil do a multi-year deal with Pearce. A multi year deal would look like 2 years 5 million dollars. He wants more than that for one year. I think the 2 million from the team is more than reasonable. Prove you belong in the bigs before asking for that kind of money.

[Can_of_corn]

I know Tony posted it but I figured I would add it here for completeness.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Bud Norris settles at $8.8 mil. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/orioles?src=hash">#orioles</a> down to 4 arb players. <a href="https://twitter.com/danconnollysun">@danconnollysun</a> 1st</p>— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) <a href="

">January 26, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[MurphDogg]

I know Tony posted it but I figured I would add it here for completeness.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Bud Norris settles at $8.8 mil. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/orioles?src=hash">#orioles</a> down to 4 arb players. <a href="https://twitter.com/danconnollysun">@danconnollysun</a> 1st</p>— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) <a href="

">January 26, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Might as well add the Flaherty deal if you feel that this thread should be the official arbitration chronicle...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Ryan flaherty settles with o's for $1.075M. Plus 25K for 400 plate appearances.</p>— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) <a href="

">January 26, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Can_of_corn]

Might as well add the Flaherty deal if you feel that this thread should be the official arbitration chronicle...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Ryan flaherty settles with o's for $1.075M. Plus 25K for 400 plate appearances.</p>— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) <a href="

">January 26, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Quite right.

[weams]

Quite right.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/zfaTvT99sDA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

"It all depends on money

And who is in your family tree"

[fearthenoodle]

I don't think the team wiil do a multi-year deal with Pearce. A multi year deal would look like 2 years 5 million dollars. He wants more than that for one year. I think the 2 million from the team is more than reasonable. Prove you belong in the bigs before asking for that kind of money.

I'd offer Pearce much more than $5MM over 2 years.

[weams]

I'd offer Pearce much more than $5MM over 2 years.

How much more?