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Orioles avoided arbitration with... (leave some very big differences as well)


Greg

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I'm pretty sure the only stats that are allowed are official stats. So no WAR, FIP, UZR etc... Actually both sides are fairly limited as to what they can present from what I understand

Not true at all so far as I know. Where are you getting that from?

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I'm going to try to post some analyses of all these over the weekend. In Britton's case, I did some analysis last summer:

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/142149-Zack-Britton-turning-in-to-quite-the-closer?p=3527792#post3527792

I think if the O's take him to arbitration, they win. This case should settle at about $3 mm.

I trust your knowledge of these things.

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Many years ago, the players used to kick the owners' butts in these arbitrations. They don't go that often now because there is a lot of precedent that gives guidance as to what players can expect to earn, and nobody wants to go to war with their employee/employer over a 10% or so difference of opinion.

Or end up in Colorado. Because you wish to "experience" the process.

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What is so bad about going to arbitration? I understand it's probably a hassle to go in and explain why you should pay him X amount of money but why don't they go to arbitration with more players? Do they think they are getting the better end of the deal so often that they just sign a contract?

Because it can create animosity between parties. Basically the team has to "trash" the player and point out their negatives. Most teams and players prefer to avoid that.

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If you think about it, we've got a BUNCH of guys who are playing for their first free agent contract. I predict a very productive offensive season for the Orioles. Davis, Wieters, Pearce, and De Aza will all be shooting for that multi-year deal.

Yes, players tend to mysteriously stay healthy and perform much better in their walk years. See Cruz last year. Do you really think he will hit 40 HR this year?

I think that the Orioles will be a good offensive team. But it will come down again to the starting pitching, or lack thereof.

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There is really no limit on what either party can offer. So why wouldn't you offer a lot less or more than you really want to pay' date=' if most of the time you meet in the middle?[/quote']

It is a gamble. If a player asks for too much, it is quite easy for the team to shoot it down and give the much lower salary. And vice versa. If you don't settle in the middle, one side will easily screw themselves.

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There is really no limit on what either party can offer. So why wouldn't you offer a lot less or more than you really want to pay' date=' if most of the time you meet in the middle?[/quote']

Because if you "Go to trial" the Arbitrator picks one or the other offer. The one that is closest to the value he assigns.

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Yes, players tend to mysteriously stay healthy and perform much better in their walk years. See Cruz last year. Do you really think he will hit 40 HR this year?

I think that the Orioles will be a good offensive team. But it will come down again to the starting pitching, or lack thereof.

Do they? I don't think you can definitively prove that. He also had a walk year in 2013. Markakis and Rasmus were in walk years last year how did they do? Jim Johnson had a walk year last year right?

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Do they? I don't think you can definitively prove that. He also had a walk year in 2013. Markakis and Rasmus were in walk years last year how did they do? Jim Johnson had a walk year last year right?

I said "tend to." That means statistical correlation only. But you are right, I do not have the numbers, nor do I care to get them. This is just based on seeing as a fan too many players get big contracts and then all of a sudden come back to earth.

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Do they? I don't think you can definitively prove that. He also had a walk year in 2013. Markakis and Rasmus were in walk years last year how did they do? Jim Johnson had a walk year last year right?

There have been studied showing players on average do no better or worse in their walk years.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Huge gap with Norris. Bud filed for $10.25M; Os filed at $7.5M. He made $5.3 last year</p>? Dan Connolly (@danconnollysun) <a href="
">January 16, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

WOW

Bud Norris 2013 - 2.0 rWAR

Bud Norris 2014 - 1.9 rWAR

"So I'm thinking, I had practically the same season the last two years in a row. Consistency is huge, right? Time to have them double my salary!" - Bud Norris, apparantly

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Bud Norris 2013 - 2.0 rWAR

Bud Norris 2014 - 1.9 rWAR

"So I'm thinking, I had practically the same season the last two years in a row. Consistency is huge, right? Time to have them double my salary!" - Bud Norris, apparantly

Yeah, it is very strange indeed. I don't know how you can look at his stats and think he had a significantly better season this season than he did in 2013. The only difference is win-loss record and that's because he went from a 63 win team in 2013 (averaging 1/3rd of the Orioles record and 2/3rds of the Astros record) to a 96 win team in 2014. He shouldn't get much more than the typical 33 percent bump as is standard under the 40/60/80 arbitration precedent. $7.5 million is slightly more than a 40 percent bump which is completely reasonable. This will go to court and Bud Norris will lose. Seems like a major mistake by his agents.

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