Orioles avoided arbitration with... (leave some very big differences as well)

[Can_of_corn]

I know they said - 2 people were def going to the arbitrator - IMO its gotta be Norris and Britton.

I thought it was one definite and another possible?

And I still think it's Pearce.

[waroriole]

I thought it was one definite and another possible?

And I still think it's Pearce.

Considering Britton has 3 more of these, it would make sense to start him off with a low number and go to arbitration. For Norris and Pearce, it's their last go around.

[Mayor McCheese]

Considering Britton has 3 more of these, it would make sense to start him off with a low number and go to arbitration. For Norris and Pearce, it's their last go around.

If you end up at a arbitrator hearing - Its only between the two amounts right meaning no negotiations?

[Can_of_corn]

If you end up at a arbitrator hearing - Its only between the two amounts right meaning no negotiations?

The arbiter picks one amount or the other.

[backwardsk]

If you end up at a arbitrator hearing - Its only between the two amounts right meaning no negotiations?

What War Oriole means is that Britton has three more rounds of this process. So in the following year you want him to have 2.2 be his base and not 4.2. If he merits a 50% increase in 2016, you want it to be 3.3M not 6.3M and so on for the next two years.

So it makes more sense to fight over Britton's number now than Pearce and Norris who are FAs in 2016.

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[Frobby]

Yeah, it is very strange indeed. I don't know how you can look at his stats and think he had a significantly better season this season than he did in 2013. The only difference is win-loss record and that's because he went from a 63 win team in 2013 (averaging 1/3rd of the Orioles record and 2/3rds of the Astros record) to a 96 win team in 2014. He shouldn't get much more than the typical 33 percent bump as is standard under the 40/60/80 arbitration precedent. $7.5 million is slightly more than a 40 percent bump which is completely reasonable. This will go to court and Bud Norris will lose. Seems like a major mistake by his agents.

I do think the O's win this one if arbitration proceeds. However, I want to take issue with two things. First of all, there is no "40/60/80 precedent." That's a rule of thumb that I've heard from Drungo, and it's not a bad back-of-the-envelope, but lots of guys get bumped by a lot more than 33% between their 2nd and 3rd years. Second, nobody should kid themselves that traditional stats like wins and ERA don't matter in these arbitrations. They matter a lot. Norris had career bests in wins, ERA, ERA+ and WHIP. That's why he'll get a good raise.

Having said that, let's look at Jeff Samardzija. He made $5.3 mm last year, and just had a season where he threw 219.2 IP and had an ERA+ of 126. He just settled his arbitration case for $9.8 mm. Based on that, does Norris ($5 mm last year, 105 ERA+) look reasonable asking for $10.25 mm? No. Here's a few other comps I came up with:

Guthrie 2011: went from $5.75 mm to $8.25 mm after a 108 ERA+ season

Hammel 2013: went from $4.75 mm to $6.75 mm after a 128 ERA+ season (but only 119 IP)

Hughes 2013: went from $3.2 mm to $7.15 mm after a 101 ERA+ season

Based on those, I think the $7.5 mm the Orioles offered is eminently reasonable. I don't see them going above $8 mm to settle it, because Norris' figure is so far out of line.

[weams]

Unless of course MLB talks to the arbiter beforehand.

Or the Yankees advise them.

[Number5]

So he can't say that he is staying with the team he has a legal binding contract??? He could have said something. Not saying anything means something.

He did say that.

[backwardsk]

I do think the O's win this one if arbitration proceeds. However, I want to take issue with two things. First of all, there is no "40/60/80 precedent." That's a rule of thumb that I've heard from Drungo, and it's not a bad back-of-the-envelope, but lots of guys get bumped by a lot more than 33% between their 2nd and 3rd years. Second, nobody should kid themselves that traditional stats like wins and ERA don't matter in these arbitrations. They matter a lot. Norris had career bests in wins, ERA, ERA+ and WHIP. That's why he'll get a good raise.

Having said that, let's look at Jeff Samardzija. He made $5.3 mm last year, and just had a season where he threw 219.2 IP and had an ERA+ of 126. He just settled his arbitration case for $9.8 mm. Based on that, does Norris ($5 mm last year, 105 ERA+) look reasonable asking for $10.25 mm? No. Here's a few other comps I came up with:

Guthrie 2011: went from $5.75 mm to $8.25 mm after a 108 ERA+ season

Hammel 2013: went from $4.75 mm to $6.75 mm after a 128 ERA+ season (but only 119 IP)

Hughes 2013: went from $3.2 mm to $7.15 mm after a 101 ERA+ season

Based on those, I think the $7.5 mm the Orioles offered is eminently reasonable. I don't see them going above $8 mm to settle it, because Norris' figure is so far out of line.

Excellent work, as always, on this subject.

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[Fiver]

Weren't the Os undefeated in these hearings for a long time? Are they still?

[Number5]

I know they said - 2 people were def going to the arbitrator - IMO its gotta be Norris and Britton.

I think it is most likely that the Orioles and Britton will meet in the middle someplace. MLBTR's model indicated a number of $3.2 million. The Orioles are a million below that and Britton is a million above it. Both would seem to have a good risk of losing here, so a compromise would appear to be in order.

Norris and Pearce seem to be way high on their numbers and the Orioles' numbers on each are much closer to the numbers predicted by MLBTR's model. The Orioles don't really have much reason to negotiate further with either Norris or Pearce, as it sure looks like the Orioles have a very strong case vs. each. Perhaps settling for a token increase above their submitted number makes sense for the Orioles just to avoid the hard feelings a trial could generate, but otherwise, the Orioles look good vs. both Pearce and Norris, IMO.

[LayzieDES]

Where is payroll at now?

[Can_of_corn]

I've already expressed the dangers of letting Britton clear 3 million in year one so I would strongly consider going to mediation to keep him in the 2's. Isn't there a precedent that first year rewards for Super 2's are a tier below normal first year arbitration players?

[Frobby]

Looking for comps for Pearce.....there simply aren't any. You just can't find a guy who had a breakout like that before his last year of arbitration, with such a mediocre track record before that. That said, I think Pearce's agent has overplayed his hand, and if it boils down to $2 mm vs. $5.4 mm, the O's win. You can't ignore the fact that Pearce had never done anything before last year, and that he only had 383 PA last season.

[Number5]

Looking for comps for Pearce.....there simply aren't any. You just can't find a guy who had a breakout like that before his last year of arbitration, with such a mediocre track record before that. That said, I think Pearce's agent has overplayed his hand, and if it boils down to $2 mm vs. $5.4 mm, the O's win. You can't ignore the fact that Pearce had never done anything before last year, and that he only had 383 PA last season.

:agree: I think the Orioles got a bit lucky that the agents for Pearce and Norris put in such high numbers. Makes it seem almost a sure thing that the Orioles will win both cases and pay both less than I thought they would.