Jump to content

Rate Our Chances As Of Now

brianod

By brianod
in Orioles Talk

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 30
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Scrat1 Hangout Grand Counsel

Scrat1

Posted
Posted

Even if we're not the favorites to win the division, and we very well may not be, I think the difference between the teams is negligible enough to make predictions near worthless. Davis may suck again, Snider remains a AAAA player, and Tillman goes down with an injury and we win 73 games; or Machado bounces back from injury and is an MVP candidate, 2014 Pearce returns and Gausman turns into a TOR starter and we win 97 games. I think either scenario is equally likely. I like our chances and I'm not gonna sweat the particulars.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
Even if we're not the favorites to win the division, and we very well may not be, I think the difference between the teams is negligible enough to make predictions near worthless. Davis may suck again, Snider remains a AAAA player, and Tillman goes down with an injury and we win 73 games; or Machado bounces back from injury and is an MVP candidate, 2014 Pearce returns and Gausman turns into a TOR starter and we win 97 games. I think either scenario is equally likely. I like our chances and I'm not gonna sweat the particulars.

I think you're right about this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SteveO Veteran All-Star

SteveO

Posted
Posted

In my view, having a healthy MW and Machado is the whole key. If those two guys can come back and stay relatively healthy then I see this team in the mix to win the division and potentially make a playoff run if CD and say Schoop can up their game a little as well.

If a lot of things go bad and I mean like every question we have is answered negatively then I could see us hovering within 4-5 games of .500. If everything goes amazing, MW is raking, Machado goes nuts, CD is markedly improved then this team could hit 100 wins.

The far more likely scenario is that some of those questions break our way and others do not. Right now as constructed I see this team as 86-93 game winners. I think the higher end 90-93 games is likely enough to win this division. The lower end has you still in the mix but perhaps fighting for a WC.

At the end of the day this a team with a 120 million dollar payroll that is competitive and with a few breaks you can see a pathway to a championship. Not sure how much more you can expect than that as a fan.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SteveO Veteran All-Star

SteveO

Posted
Posted
One thing to consider is that we have a ton of young players in their prospective walk year. If they are playing to impress in free agency we may get some truly spectacular performances. There is' date=' after all, major money on the line for many.:cool:[/quote']

Seem to motivate Cruz, Markakis not as much but who knows maybe that was the best he has left.

I think we will a number of guys who will be hungry to prove their value which should work to our benefit. Of course the downside is that they are all free agents :(

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TiredofLosing20 Major Leaguer

TiredofLosing20

Posted
Posted
Even if we're not the favorites to win the division, and we very well may not be, I think the difference between the teams is negligible enough to make predictions near worthless. Davis may suck again, Snider remains a AAAA player, and Tillman goes down with an injury and we win 73 games; or Machado bounces back from injury and is an MVP candidate, 2014 Pearce returns and Gausman turns into a TOR starter and we win 97 games. I think either scenario is equally likely. I like our chances and I'm not gonna sweat the particulars.

Wait,

Did you just predict us to win between 73 and 97 games? Are you a weatherman?

Just kidding.. I concur. As per normal I have no idea what this team is. I would put them about 85 wins.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
Posted
Seem to motivate Cruz, Markakis not as much but who knows maybe that was the best he has left.

I think we will a number of guys who will be hungry to prove their value which should work to our benefit. Of course the downside is that they are all free agents :(

There isn't any evidence guy preform better in walk years. If anything I suspect the main difference would be the effort level put in during the offseason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Oriole1940 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Oriole1940

Posted
Posted
There isn't any evidence guy preform better in walk years. If anything I suspect the main difference would be the effort level put in during the offseason.

Divsion 33% WC 25% ALCS 20% WS 10% In a short series the Manager makes a lot of difference. See Detroit last year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

Posted
Posted
It's probably something boring like this for chances to win the AL East:

O's: 21%

Blue Jays: 21%

Yankees: 21%

Red Sox: 20%

Rays: 15%

Pitching and injuries (especially SP injuries) usually decide it.

Adds up to 98%. So there is apparently a 2% chance NO ONE wins the division.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Posts

    • deward
      Szymborski: The Orioles Are Running Out of Lineup Spots

      By deward · Posted

      I can't imagine they have any expectation of Mateo going back to being a regular. If he's going on his annual hot streak, then it's smart to ride him until he gasses out, then shift him back to his reserve role. Holliday is taking that full-time spot soon enough. 
    • Aristotelian
      Szymborski: The Orioles Are Running Out of Lineup Spots

      By Aristotelian · Posted

      Urias has a career 103 OPS+. Had two hits and a walk today plus another squared up ball for an out. I feel like Urias is a bit of a forgotten man, but he is a very solid defender and an average bat. That's probably not good enough for us but that is because we are spoiled with plus guys at basically every position. I agree on Westburg though, if Mayo doesn't end up with 3B, Westburg is adequate there and so far his bat can play for a corner IF.  Hitting on Westburg and Gunnar the way we have really pushes our system over the top. These are guys we weren't necessarily counting on but they are turning into bona fide stars. Only question is how to find room for them all. Westburg 3B makes Mayo the heir apparent at 1B. Somehow he needs to push Mountcastle but he's not a FA until 2027. Maybe he takes Santander's spot and Kjerstad keeps waiting. 
    • 24fps
      Reds Series

      By 24fps · Posted

      Interesting.  You know Gunnar and De La Cruz are the same age, yet Gunnar's put up 9.4 career WAR to poor Elly's 2.7.  If anyone was overrated during the last series it was Nick Lodolo.
    • Three Run Homer
      Kremer is due for Regression

      By Three Run Homer · Posted

      I wondered about that too.  Maybe he'll take his turn on the IL when Grayson is ready to return.  
    • Frobby
      Enrique Bradfield Jr. 2024

      By Frobby · Posted

      It’s silly to be judging Bradfield at this stage.  I don’t know if he’ll be good or not, but I know you need to give him a couple of months at least before you have any clue.
    • RZNJ
      Kremer is due for Regression

      By RZNJ · Posted

      Anyone else notice Kremer shaking his hand or fingers the last couple games and looking like he’s in pain?  I’m surprised Ben and Kevin didn’t pick up on it today.  It looked obvious to me.
    • OsFanInOhio
      Mike Baumann 2024

      By OsFanInOhio · Posted

      Povich is a starter. It makes no sense to bring him up and put him in Baumann’s role. Especially not in a short term situation when he’s pitching so well starting in Norfolk.    also - it kind of feels like Baumann is just a placeholder. When wells and/or Grayson come back, there isn’t another logical move other than maybe option akin, who has pitched dramatically better than Baumann. But I can’t imagine Baumann surviving both wells and Grayson coming back without another injury.    I don’t think Elias is doing anything crazy other than holding onto assets with value until it’s necessary to let them go. Is Tate probably better in the long term? Yeah. But he’s also coming off a year long injury and they don’t want to overuse him. Let them use his option for the flexibility, manage his innings, let Baumann either prove he can rediscover early 2023 form or get dfa’d in the coming weeks while eating whatever innings we need him to. Not like he’s costing us games at the moment.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...