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Beyond the Box Score: Is Patience a Virtue?


weams

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Is it?

I think that isn't something that should just be assumed.

Generally speaking, only a small percentage of the variation in OBP can be explained by P/PA.

To confirm for myself, I looked at all qualified batters between 2002-2009. Sure enough, the correlation between the two metrics was .426 with an r2 of .18. Now, that's roughly 20%, but much lower than I assumed.

Fastball Bullpens

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Chicken or the egg? Do better hitters see more pitches because patience makes one a better hitter, or do pitchers pitch more carefully to good hitters making their patience mandatory?

I would argue that good hitting is about getting a good pitch to hit, whether that's the first pitch or the 10 pitch of an at bat. In any at bat, under most circumstances, a batter should swing at the first "hitters pitch" he sees.

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IIRC, Fangraphs did a study on this and basically found no advantage to taking more pitches. Especially with bullpens being so much better these days, assuming that "accumulating pitches" is its own reward seems like specious reasoning.

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IIRC, Fangraphs did a study on this and basically found no advantage to taking more pitches. Especially with bullpens being so much better these days, assuming that "accumulating pitches" is its own reward seems like specious reasoning.

This might be true overall, but its not always the case. See the 2014 Detroit Tigers.

Getting the pitch count up for those starters helped get into the weak bullpen. So in that case, pitch accumulation is valuable.

I agree agains the Orioles or Royals the difference is negligible.

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This might be true overall, but its not always the case. See the 2014 Detroit Tigers.

Getting the pitch count up for those starters helped get into the weak bullpen. So in that case, pitch accumulation is valuable.

I agree agains the Orioles or Royals the difference is negligible.

If you are managing in the playoffs and using pitch counts and not effectiveness as your guide on when to remove pitchers you are going to have a bad time.

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IIRC, Fangraphs did a study on this and basically found no advantage to taking more pitches. Especially with bullpens being so much better these days, assuming that "accumulating pitches" is its own reward seems like specious reasoning.

I was aware of this. Thanks. I do think it is interesting to share this knowledge.

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This might be true overall, but its not always the case. See the 2014 Detroit Tigers.

Getting the pitch count up for those starters helped get into the weak bullpen. So in that case, pitch accumulation is valuable.

I agree agains the Orioles or Royals the difference is negligible.

It's mostly the case. Very few pitchers last the whole time. And when they do, it is sometimes easier to hit them. Mostly.

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