Regretting Not Signing Andrew Miller?

[mdbdotcom]

The guy has been completely dominant since changing jerseys.

Portland (2014): 0.96 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9.62 K/9, 4.88 K/BB

Pawtucket (2015): 1.93 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 7.71 K/9, 16.00 K/BB

That kind of performance will raise your stock. It's not just a "Red Sox prospects get more hype than Orioles' prospects" thing. Still, BA (#65, #59), BP (#61, # 65) and MLB.com (#68, #89) did not really change their opinions much between the start of 2014 and the start of 2015.

Can't help but wonder why he stalled in the O's organization. Maybe he had gotten lazy and the trade was a wake-up call. Or... something else.

[Frobby]

Can't help but wonder why he stalled in the O's organization. Maybe he had gotten lazy and the trade was a wake-up call. Or... something else.

I think he credited one of the Sox coaches with helping him on some mechanical thing. You never know about these things. Look how Mike Wright suddenly turned his season around at about the same time as Ed Rod did.

[ledzepp8]

Darren O'Day is highly underrated. Still, when Miller is on his game, he's just about untouchable. Right now, I'd probably want Miller over O'Day. But I'd bet O'Day is in for a pretty nice payday if he has another very good season for us. Not $9 mm/yr, but $7 mm or so for 3+ years, I'd guess.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to belittle Miller, but according to Baseball Reference, the guy has never been worth more than 0.9 WAR in a season. If he's "the best in the game at what he does", as some people are claiming, shouldn't he have had some better seasons that Darren O'Day? Even 2013 Tommy Hunter was better than any season by Andrew Miller according rWAR.

[DrungoHazewood]

Can't help but wonder why he stalled in the O's organization. Maybe he had gotten lazy and the trade was a wake-up call. Or... something else.

This may be a cop-out, but I believe in the non-causality of a lot of things. In other words, stuff happens for reasons not readily apparent to anyone, or no real reason at all. Just because people search for clear cause-and-effect doesn't mean that's reality.

[mdbdotcom]

Simple things that made a big difference. Changed his position on the rubber, told him to use his changeup to LHB's and pitch inside more. His strikes to walk ratio improved immediately. This is more on our developmental people than Duquette, IMO. At the time of the trade he was showing no progress.

It was the development staff I was wondering about.

[DrungoHazewood]

Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to belittle Miller, but according to Baseball Reference, the guy has never been worth more than 0.9 WAR in a season. If he's "the best in the game at what he does", as some people are claiming, shouldn't he have had some better seasons that Darren O'Day? Even 2013 Tommy Hunter was better than any season by Andrew Miller according rWAR.

A lot of reliever WAR has to do with leverage and roles as much as performance. Miller is very good. O'Day is very good. But relievers can't be all that valuable pitching mainly one-inning chunks every 2-3 days. The most you can get out of a reliever today, even with ridiculously optimized leverage and crazy results, is maybe 3-4 wins. Which is the same as a somewhat above average regular.

[Frobby]

Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to belittle Miller, but according to Baseball Reference, the guy has never been worth more than 0.9 WAR in a season. If he's "the best in the game at what he does", as some people are claiming, shouldn't he have had some better seasons that Darren O'Day? Even 2013 Tommy Hunter was better than any season by Andrew Miller according rWAR.

Of course, fWAR says Miller was worth 2.2 wins last year, compared to O'Day's high of 1.4 and Hunter's of 0.7. fWAR puts a higher premium on K rate. I'm agnostic as to whether rWAR or fWAR is better, but you can at least see the argument for Miller.

As to the statement that he is "the best at what he does," I think that's hyperbole. By fWAR, he was the 7th best reliever last year, and it's not as if Miller has a long track record. He's an elite reliever right now, assuming his arm holds up.

[Redskins Rick]

Of course, fWAR says Miller was worth 2.2 wins last year, compared to O'Day's high of 1.4 and Hunter's of 0.7. fWAR puts a higher premium on K rate. I'm agnostic as to whether rWAR or fWAR is better, but you can at least see the argument for Miller.

As to the statement that he is "the best at what he does," I think that's hyperbole. By fWAR, he was the 7th best reliever last year, and it's not as if Miller has a long track record. He's an elite reliever right now, assuming his arm holds up.

Not that he is a closer how does that affect his rWAR or fWAR?

[Frobby]

Not that he is a closer how does that affect his rWAR or fWAR?

It doesn't. Neither of those stats factors in leverage.

[Redskins Rick]

It doesn't. Neither of those stats factors in leverage.

okay, thanks.

[DrungoHazewood]

Not that he is a closer how does that affect his rWAR or fWAR?

Role only effects WAR insomuch as it drives leverage. Some closers end up with very high leverage when their teams have a lot of close games in the 9th, but just as often other relievers end up in more important situations earlier in the game.

[DrungoHazewood]

It doesn't. Neither of those stats factors in leverage.

Don't they? I was pretty sure one or both of them at least does some kind of leverage adjustment. Not full-on WPA incorporation, but leverage does play into it in some fashion.

[Redskins Rick]

I had thought Rivera in his hay day was worth a 4 or 5 WAR, going by my memory, which I know, isn't always the best

Which is why I ask that question.

[DrungoHazewood]

I had thought Rivera in his hay day was worth a 4 or 5 WAR, going by my memory, which I know, isn't always the best

Which is why I ask that question.

Rivera is hands-down the best modern short reliever. And once he became a closer his top fWAR was 2.9. He did have a 4-win season as a setup man.

[Redskins Rick]

Rivera is hands-down the best modern short reliever. And once he became a closer his top fWAR was 2.9. He did have a 4-win season as a setup man.

Okay, thanks for the post.