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The Time to Make a Decision on Chris Davis is Now

brianod

By brianod
in Orioles Talk

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OFFNY Hangout Grand Counsel

OFFNY

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Chris has averaged a home run every 15.18 times at bat during his career. How does that match up against some of the great home run hitters of all time? Mantle one in every 15.11, Williams one in every 14.79, Gehrig one in every 16.22, Mays one in every 16.48 and Aaron one in every 16.37.

Bonds and Ruth rank at the top at 12.92 and 11.76. This season, Chris has one home run every 12.19 times at bat!

For once, Angelos needs to put his money where his mouth is and sign Davis. Oriole fans deserve a competitive team for their continual support and I don't think this team can be competitive without Davis!

Dave Kingman averaged a homer every 15.11 PAs. Juan Gonzalez once every 15.05. Ryan Howard once every 15.05. Darryl Strawberry once every 16.1. Cecil Fielder once every 16.2. Richie Sexson once every 16.1. Hank Sauer once every 16.6. Rob Deer once every 16.9. How many of those guys wouldn't have been disasters with 5/125 or 7/175 contracts at 30?

Home runs are not the be all and end all. I'm real happy with Chris' season because, in addition to the homers, he's got a decent BA and a very good OBP this year. He's had a great year.

Also, he is a good defensive 1st baseman.

So he hits home runs, has a decent batting average, has a very good on-base percentage, and he's good on defense.

He also leads the team in walks (70) and taking called 3rd strikes (53), so he is clearly trying to get on base any way that he possibly can.

So he may not necessarily be irreplaceable, but in this particular season (2015), he does have a lot of upside going on for him.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Also, he is a good defensive 1st baseman.

So he hits home runs, has a decent batting average, has a very good on-base percentage, and he's good on defense.

He also leads the team in walks (70) and taking called 3rd strikes (53), so he is clearly trying to get on base any way that he possibly can.

So he may not necessarily be irreplaceable, but in this particular season (2015), he does have a lot of upside going on for him.

He is certainly having a very fine season. Unfortunately, he's only had two non-consecutive seasons that count as unqualified successes and he's going to be 30 next year. I would love to have 2015 Chris Davis for the next 7 years at $20M a pop. I'd like it a bit less if the Orioles were paying $20M a year for his 2014 season.

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OFFNY Hangout Grand Counsel

OFFNY

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He is certainly having a very fine season. Unfortunately, he's only had two non-consecutive seasons that count as unqualified successes and he's going to be 30 next year. I would love to have 2015 Chris Davis for the next 7 years at $20M a pop. I'd like it a bit less if the Orioles were paying $20M a year for his 2014 season.

Very good point(s), I agree completely.

Right this minute, Davis is looking about as irreplaceable as one can look.

But if you step back and look at it more objectively, Davis' 2014 season that was sandwiched in between his 2013 and 2015 seasons can be very alarming.

And there are a few wise posters (such as yourself) that have been able to point that out. :cool:

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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Davis is hitting 263, 337, 513 with 5 hrs and 17 rbis. This in an ops of .849 and he projects out to hit 35 home runs and 120 rbis.

If the Orioles want to resign him, now is the time to do it. If he meets these projections, I don't think we'll be able to afford him. For all I know, the decision has been made and that decision is to let him go. But, if not, I don't think the Orioles have the luxury of waiting until the end of the season because I do expect him to do this for an entire season.

Ok. I heard the Orioles decided when you asked for them to to. Problem is, his agent wants to see what others have to say about things? You ok with that?

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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I was responding to someone else who seemed to gloss over the loss of Davis by their commenting something to the effect of "at least we will get a draft pick."

I am glad you and I both value draft picks as the only way to possibly strengthen our mediocre farm system so that the teams we watch over the next 15 season will be good too. Just like the teams we have watched since April of 2012.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Markakis and Cruz should not be lumped together. Most people here were right on both - that we should have kept Cruz and should not have kept Markakis. Cruz was a great talent who was healthy. Markakis was a good talent who was clearly declining at least defensively and scheduled for a neck operation.

With Davis, you can't just say no without giving an alternative. If we had kept Cruz - which most people here were right on, it would be much easier to say no to Davis. Without him, Jones is the only legit middle of the lineup hitter we'd have - and Jones is not a great hitter. I'm not saying we have to keep Davis - as I think he'll be much more expensive than Cruz was - but we need an alternative if we let him get away. We can't just say no, and leave it at that.

You are wrong that "most people here" wanted to keep Cruz. Only 24% thought we should have matched the Mariners' offer. http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/145416-Would-you-have-matched-SEA-offer-to-keep-Cruz-an-Oriole?highlight=cruz

As to Davis, it all depends on what you have to pay him. Of course we'd like him back at some price. But what price? At 6/$100 mm, I'd probably be in. At 7/$175 mm, I'd certainly be out. Somewhere in between is my stopping point, but I haven't sharpened my pencil yet.

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Nevermore All-Star

Nevermore

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You are wrong that "most people here" wanted to keep Cruz. Only 24% thought we should have matched the Mariners' offer. http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/145416-Would-you-have-matched-SEA-offer-to-keep-Cruz-an-Oriole?highlight=cruz

As to Davis, it all depends on what you have to pay him. Of course we'd like him back at some price. But what price? At 6/$100 mm, I'd probably be in. At 7/$175 mm, I'd certainly be out. Somewhere in between is my stopping point, but I haven't sharpened my pencil yet.

Wasn't there a 2nd, more recent poll about retaining Cruz? As I recall, in that poll, most people thought that they should have kept him.
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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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Wasn't there a 2nd, more recent poll about retaining Cruz? As I recall, in that poll, most people thought that they should have kept him.

I wish we never traded Davey Johnson. I never wanted to. I wish we had kept Steve Finley and Curt Schilling. I wish we had traded Matt Riley. And Adam Loewen.

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