The Time to Make a Decision on Chris Davis is Now

[Mendoza Line]

Davis' numbers since the All-Star break, while the Orioles were falling apart:

.307 BA

.413 OBP (fourth in the AL among full-time players)

.688 SLG (third in the AL among full-timers)

23 HRs (first in the AL)

55 runs (first in the AL)

55 BRIs (second in the AL)

81 Ks (first in the AL)

I'm amazed that Chris, while hitting all those homers, has batted over .300 and maintained an OBP of over .400 for the past two months.

You sure can't replace that production, not even with Chris Davis.

If he was hitting close to this first half, he'd be an MVP candidate.

[Frobby]

You are right Frobby. Its not just his HR's though. He is a huge RBI man with a better than average glove in at least two and in an emergency 3 positions.He runs well too, and draws walks with more regularity than just about anyone in this lineup. You take 40-45 HR's and 110 RBI's out of this lineup, even for his appalling strikeout ratio and you've got a massive hole in this offense, especially for the fact that we lost a 40 HR 100 RBI player coming into THIS season.You take 2 players like that out of the lineup and all the Kazmir's and Leakes of the world won't make a difference. We need to sign Davis because there are few if any players like Davis in the league right now. I'd hate to see this offense without him in the years ahead. By the way, I don't think we will sign him.

I don't think we necessarily have to have a player "like Davis." But we are going to need another very good bat if Davis leaves. I agree we can't just lose his offensive production and try to fill in with bargain basement guys.

The real issue with Davis is, how many future seasons will he have that are remotely as good as 2015? You look at his career, and it's all over the lot. There is some evidence that players of his type (low contact rate, high power, high walks) don't tend to hold their performance well in their 30's. Adam Dunn is the poster child for that. Now, I think Davis will hold his overall value somewhat better than Dunn, because as you say, he is a versatile and useful defender. But I think there's a pretty decent risk that his offensive production in his 30's will look like Dunn's (.765 OPS), even if he's pretty good for the next 2-3 years.

[Frobby]

If they can't keep Davis they will be a last place team no matter who they try to replace him with! Now before some smart Alec tries to throw out some big time hitter like Haroer or Trout I mean by any player realistically available!

To start with, at the top end there is Heyward, Upton, Cespedes and Gordon. I think if we lost Davis and signed any of those four we'd be about as good, or better, from and offensive/defensive standpoint. Or, you could go get Dexter Fowler and then plow some additional money into pitching. I have to say, I don't see a ton of free agent guys at the 1B or OF positions who can be counted on to be above average players. There are a lot of "maybes" out there.

First Basemen

Chris Davis

Edwin Encarnacion *

Garrett Jones

Adam Lind *

Justin Morneau *

Mike Napoli

David Ortiz *

Steve Pearce

Mark Reynolds

Outfielders

Jeff Baker

Jose Bautista *

Yoenis Cespedes

Alejandro De Aza

David DeJesus *

Marlon Byrd *

Rajai Davis

Chris Denorfia

Dexter Fowler

Alex Gordon *

Corey Hart

Jason Heyward

Torii Hunter

Austin Jackson

Matt Joyce

Nate McLouth *

David Murphy

Gerardo Parra

Carlos Quentin *

Ryan Raburn

Alex Rios *

Cody Ross *

Grady Sizemore

Denard Span

Drew Stubbs

Ryan Sweeney

Justin Upton

Will Venable

Shane Victorino

Chris Young

Delmon Young

* option

[mdbdotcom]

If they can't keep Davis they will be a last place team no matter who they try to replace him with! Now before some smart Alec tries to throw out some big time hitter like Haroer or Trout I mean by any player realistically available!

What if they sign him for a lot of money and he has a season like last year? Can we afford to pay $20 million for that?

[DrungoHazewood]

You sure can't replace that production, not even with Chris Davis.

Chris Davis 2015 is really kind of irreplaceable.

Chris Davis 2014, completely replaceable.

2013, irreplaceable. 2012, decent, but replaceable.

The real issue with Davis is, how many future seasons will he have that are remotely as good as 2015? You look at his career, and it's all over the lot. There is some evidence that players of his type (low contact rate, high power, high walks) don't tend to hold their performance well in their 30's. Adam Dunn is the poster child for that. Now, I think Davis will hold his overall value somewhat better than Dunn, because as you say, he is a versatile and useful defender. But I think there's a pretty decent risk that his offensive production in his 30's will look like Dunn's (.765 OPS), even if he's pretty good for the next 2-3 years.

I want everyone to remember these quotes whether or not Davis resigns. The drumbeat when he's producing is "You can't just go out and find another Chris Davis. He just carries the team!" But that's backwards-looking. In 2014 we had Chris Davis and he didn't remotely produce like either the 2013 or 2015 Chris Davis. And despite the fans yearning and dreaming, he's not likely to be more consistent and more productive going forward than he was in what's normally a player's peak years. This is not unlike last year, when the most probable outcome of resigning Markakis and Cruz was a several win decline from 2014 Markakis and Cruz, and accelerated decline in the following years. You don't get the luxury of signing only the peak versions of the guys you want.

[fastball]

Chris, can hit HRs play first base right field and pitch,Why not?

[Ruzious]

I want everyone to remember these quotes whether or not Davis resigns. The drumbeat when he's producing is "You can't just go out and find another Chris Davis. He just carries the team!" But that's backwards-looking. In 2014 we had Chris Davis and he didn't remotely produce like either the 2013 or 2015 Chris Davis. And despite the fans yearning and dreaming, he's not likely to be more consistent and more productive going forward than he was in what's normally a player's peak years. This is not unlike last year, when the most probable outcome of resigning Markakis and Cruz was a several win decline from 2014 Markakis and Cruz, and accelerated decline in the following years. You don't get the luxury of signing only the peak versions of the guys you want.

Markakis and Cruz should not be lumped together. Most people here were right on both - that we should have kept Cruz and should not have kept Markakis. Cruz was a great talent who was healthy. Markakis was a good talent who was clearly declining at least defensively and scheduled for a neck operation.

With Davis, you can't just say no without giving an alternative. If we had kept Cruz - which most people here were right on, it would be much easier to say no to Davis. Without him, Jones is the only legit middle of the lineup hitter we'd have - and Jones is not a great hitter. I'm not saying we have to keep Davis - as I think he'll be much more expensive than Cruz was - but we need an alternative if we let him get away. We can't just say no, and leave it at that.

[zweem]

Markakis and Cruz should not be lumped together. Most people here were right on both - that we should have kept Cruz and should not have kept Markakis. Cruz was a great talent who was healthy. Markakis was a good talent who was clearly declining at least defensively and scheduled for a neck operation.

With Davis, you can't just say no without giving an alternative. If we had kept Cruz - which most people here were right on, it would be much easier to say no to Davis. Without him, Jones is the only legit middle of the lineup hitter we'd have - and Jones is not a great hitter. I'm not saying we have to keep Davis - as I think he'll be much more expensive than Cruz was - but we need an alternative if we let him get away. We can't just say no, and leave it at that.

between Davis, Heyward, Upton, Cespedes and Gordon--who has the most game-winning or game-tying hits???

With today's offensive decline, this is a vital stat that should not be overlooked.

[spiritof66]

Trying to project Chris Davis' offense over the next year, or 5 or 7 years, is real difficult. For me, the difficulty of comparing him to other sluggers is that Chris appears to have changed and improved his approach over the last couple of months. That doesn't mean he won't continue to be streaky (or that he won't continue to strike out a lot), but it may mean he'll hold steady, at a very high level, or even improve, for a few seasons before he starts to decline.

[El Gordo]

Davis at 5/90M would be great. Davis at 7/160M not so much. Sign Fowler and one of Para/Jackson/Venable/Span, and get some pitching.

[Redskins Rick]

Davis at 5/90M would be great. Davis at 7/60M not so much. Sign Fowler and one of Para/Jackson/Venable/Span, and get some pitching.

if they sign Para/Jackson/Venable/Span, then some posters will keep complaining, like they have been.

[mdbdotcom]

Davis at 5/90M would be great. Davis at 7/160M not so much. Sign Fowler and one of Para/Jackson/Venable/Span, and get some pitching.

Is that supposed to be 7/160? Congratulations on having your contract renewed.

[El Gordo]

if they sign Para/Jackson/Venable/Span, then some posters will keep complaining, like they have been.

Posters will complain if they sign Davis. Some posters will complain no matter what.

[DrungoHazewood]

between Davis, Heyward, Upton, Cespedes and Gordon--who has the most game-winning or game-tying hits???

With today's offensive decline, this is a vital stat that should not be overlooked.

Why would that be more important in this offensive context? Isn't that essentially GWRBI, which was so useless that MLB quietly retired it more than two decades ago after a brief trial?

[Redskins Rick]

Why would that be more important in this offensive context? Isn't that essentially GWRBI, which was so useless that MLB quietly retired it more than two decades ago after a brief trial?

Just because MLB retired it, makes its something not viable.

Of course, just my own pinion.

Some players can hit well in no pressure situations and not well in leverage situations.

Knowing that a guy does come through when the team needs them, has to be a benefit to somebody?