2015 vs 2014

[Phantom]

This time last year, the O's were in third place, 4.5 games out of first.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/standings.cgi?year=2014&month=5&day=29&submit=Submit+Date

We are currently in fifth place, 5.0 games back.

In fact, our run differential is better this year (-8) than it was at this point last year (-13).

Are people really sure we are a worse team than last season?

[eddie83]

I just look at this offense and lack hope to be honest. I don't think we are this bad but unless Manny, Jones and Davis all step up where are the runs going to come from? Our collection of platoon/role/flawed players at RF, LF and DH does not give me much hope. Even prior to his injuries I didn't expect JJ Hardy to hit like he did a couple of years ago.

I think our best hope is to hang in there until Schoop gets back. We need Tillman to step up and a couple hitters to get hot. We just need to hang around at this point. I would be happy if somehow we could get to .500 by the time Schoop returns. I don't see another team running away with it.

[osfanfrom70]

This time last year, the O's were in third place, 4.5 games out of first.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/standings.cgi?year=2014&month=5&day=29&submit=Submit+Date

We are currently in fifth place, 5.0 games back.

In fact, our run differential is better this year (-8) than it was at this point last year (-13).

Are people really sure we are a worse team than last season?

I can show you many more seasons where we were in last place on June 4th and never ended up winning the division.

[Phantom]

Seems like the pitching has been better and the hitting has been worse. Timing is everything. When we pitch we don't hit. When we hit (which isn't often) we don't pitch. Interesting stats. Unfortunately, the ultimate stat is wins and losses.

That's the ultimate stat at the end of the year. RD is much more indicative of talent and future performance, which is what we are interested in, no?

[DrungoHazewood]

I can show you many more seasons where we were in last place on June 4th and never ended up winning the division.

Okay. But how many of those years featured some injuries and underperformances that will probably self-correct to some degree? And how many of those years saw the O's in last place but only 5.0 games out of first? Last place don't mean what it used to. In the fairly recent past last place meant six teams were ahead of you.

[DrungoHazewood]

The run differential is still negative. That predicts we'll be under .500 for the rest of the season.

It says that a team with a negative run differential will probably have a losing record, and if that continues they'll likely have a losing record. But current run differential isn't necessarily what they'll have going forward.

[Frobby]

We are not as good a team as last year, thanks to the loss of Cruz and Markakis. We won the AL East by a huge margin last year, so my hope was and is that although the team wasn't quite as good, we could still win the division again.

I spent a lot of time over the winter warning that although there was a lot of rhetoric about replacing any lost offensive production by getting Wieters and Manny back, the truth was that we'd have injuries this year, too. But frankly, the injuries this year have been significantly worse than last year, with Wieters missing all the games and Schoop, Hardy and Flaherty all missing more than half of the games. I think if we can get healthier we will see a much better offense. I also think that the number of underperformers is outweighing the overperformers by a lot right now, and that will come more into balance as the season continues.

[LookitsPuck]

Nick Markakis has a 0.8 oWAR and a -0.5 dWAR.

Delmon Young has a 0.8 oWAR and a 0.4 dWAR.

Just saying.

Now, that said...2B is a black hole. The other OF position is a black hole. DH has been very good for part of the year w/ Paredes. 1B has been awful except for 2 short stretches. SS has been injured/black hole. Outside of CF, 3B, C and part of RF...the rest of the offense has been pathetic.

[Frobby]

Frobby, please! Don't act like Markakis was a big loss.

Not on the level of Cruz, but significant, in my opinion. Our corner OF spots are hitting a composite .679 OPS, and the defense in RF has been very spotty IMO. The team would have been noticeably better off if Markakis was still here. I want to be clear -- I am not arguing he should have been re-signed at 4/$44 mm. But I think his contributions to the team have been missed. Hopefully, Pearce, Snider and Lough can pick it up as the season progresses.

[TiredofLosing20]

We are not as good a team as last year, thanks to the loss of Cruz and Markakis. We won the AL East by a huge margin last year, so my hope was and is that although the team wasn't quite as good, we could still win the division again.

I spent a lot of time over the winter warning that although there was a lot of rhetoric about replacing any lost offensive production by getting Wieters and Manny back, the truth was that we'd have injuries this year, too. But frankly, the injuries this year have been significantly worse than last year, with Wieters missing all the games and Schoop, Hardy and Flaherty all missing more than half of the games. I think if we can get healthier we will see a much better offense. I also think that the number of underperformers is outweighing the overperformers by a lot right now, and that will come more into balance as the season continues.

And that is the travesty of this season. So close last year only to get further away this year knowing that 2016 was coming. I am beating a dead horse. Good post Frobby..

[TiredofLosing20]

Nick Markakis has a 0.8 oWAR and a -0.5 dWAR.

Delmon Young has a 0.8 oWAR and a 0.4 dWAR.

Just saying.

Now, that said...2B is a black hole. The other OF position is a black hole. DH has been very good for part of the year w/ Paredes. 1B has been awful except for 2 short stretches. SS has been injured/black hole. Outside of CF, 3B, C and part of RF...the rest of the offense has been pathetic.

These dWAR stats make me doubt defensive metrics even more.

Or maybe it highlights my misunderstanding of them.

[Phantom]

These dWAR stats make me doubt defensive metrics even more.

Or maybe it highlights my misunderstanding of them.

Defensive stats are still pretty darn imperfect, especially over sample sizes smaller than two years. I'll take them over the (god awful) eye test any day.

[Frobby]

And that is the travesty of this season. So close last year only to get further away this year knowing that 2016 was coming. I am beating a dead horse. Good post Frobby..

Well, I don't think it was a travesty, just a consequence of having a whole lot of players getting much more expensive all at the same time. If there's a travesty regarding the Orioles, in my opinion it's the lack of impact talent coming out of our farm system to replace guys when they become too expensive to keep.

[TiredofLosing20]

Defensive stats are still pretty darn imperfect, especially over sample sizes smaller than two years. I'll take them over the (god awful) eye test any day.

I believe in stats more so than the eye test in general, however.. just because it is a stat doesn't make it a good one. My limited understanding of defensive metrics is that they are based on subjective observation. Or maybe I am wrong.

[DrungoHazewood]

I believe in stats more so than the eye test in general, however.. just because it is a stat doesn't make it a good one. My limited understanding of defensive metrics is that they are based on subjective observation. Or maybe I am wrong.

Subjective observation bounded by very specific rules on how to categorize different ball types. It's not subjective in the sense of "yea, that was pretty hard, it doesn't count", but more in the sense of "that was a line drive to outfield zone 3a, and an average fielder gets to 67% of line drives in that zone."