Ubaldo Jimenez Contract, an Alternate Look/Question

[BohKnowsBmore]

So much has been made of Ubaldo's contract, especially last season when he pitched poorly. As many have pointed out, his contract, despite being the largest FA pitcher contract in O's history, is not an ace contract. It was more of a low-end #2 or #3 FA pitching contract at market prices. Ubaldo is a guy who can pitch like a #1 when he is on, but looks more like a #4 or 5 when he is not. I have argued that the FO clearly knows this and expected some volatility from Jimenez, but if they could get a dominant season from him and two up-and-down years that average out around a #3 level of performance, then they could handle a poor season at the amount they were paying him. They clearly would not prefer him to pitch like he did last season and it is frustrating when it happens in year 1, but I wanted to ask the following about his deal:

If he made league-minimum last season (let's call it $500K), then $24.5M this season, how would you feel about his performance this season? Last season he was worth -0.5 rWAR and 0.4 fWAR, so we will say he was approximately replacement level in 2014. So far in 2015, his numbers are as follows:

3-3, 10GP/10GS, 57.2 IP, 55 K (8.6 K/9), 16 BB (2.5 BB/9), 3.12 ERA, 126 ERA+, 3.27 FIP, 1.162 WHIP, 1.1 rWAR, 1.2 fWAR

Projected over 32 starts, that is:

10-10, 32 GP/32 GS, 184.2 IP, 176 K, 51 BB, 3.12 ERA, 1.162 WHIP

(his average IP is dragged down currently by that 3 IP performance where he was ejected, also there is a good chance he does 33 starts or so).

Would he be worth his contract for this season if he continues at this pace?

[mdbdotcom]

Interesting, but I'll wait until the four year deal is up before evaluating it.

[Frobby]

No. Ubaldo will need to have three pretty good years, not one, to make up for past year end make his contract a decent one.

[Aristotelian]

This season at his current pace would be about 3 WAR, maybe 4 at the most. So, nowhere near $24.5M, but if he sustains this through next year he would be close.

[weams]

This season at his current pace would be about 3 WAR, maybe 4 at the most. So, nowhere near $24.5M, but if he sustains this through next year he would be close.

I thought 4 WAR was 28 Million? It's a lot but for one season it does not not hamstring you later if it is just one year. Which was the premise.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Interesting, but I'll wait until the four year deal is up before evaluating it.

The premise of the post was just looking at the past two years in a vacuum.

[Nevermore]

I'm not really sure what this poll was trying to accomplish. Ubaldo had a horrible season in 2014. He was quite aware of this, and he worked with his coaches to change his faulty mechanics. For the most part, he has succeeded, and his BB/K ratio is greatly improved. Like most starting pitchers, he will have his bad days, such as today, against Cleveland. He should do fine next start. There are signs that he has changed and improved as a SP. He displayed an excellent work ethic. Whether this makes him worth his contract, I don't know, but I believe so.

Tillman and Norris are having bad years, so far, in 2015. Does this mean that they aren't worth their contracts?

[CA-ORIOLE]

Fangraphs (FIP/fWAR) has him worth 2.8 mil last year and 10 mil this year so far. So, a near 3 WAR this year would put him on par with his contract in terms of FA dollars. rWAR is less kind. If the OP's idea is to do some sort of composite, I don't see how he makes it to par.

[Aristotelian]

I thought 4 WAR was 28 Million? It's a lot but for one season it does not not hamstring you later if it is just one year. Which was the premise.

I thought $5M per win? Still, his pace this season is closer to 3 WAR, so either way he would have to pitch even better the rest of this year to make it. I do agree with the overall argument that he has plenty of time to make up for last year, and it's a good way of looking at long term contracts, since injuries and down years happen to every player.

[weams]

I thought $5M per win? Still, his pace this season is closer to 3 WAR, so either way he would have to pitch even better the rest of this year to make it. I do agree with the overall argument that he has plenty of time to make up for last year, and it's a good way of looking at long term contracts, since injuries and down years happen to every player.

Good post.

[MagicBird]

I'm not really sure what this poll was trying to accomplish.

This. What sane person would think Ubaldo is worth $24.5 million?

[BohKnowsBmore]

This. What sane person would think Ubaldo is worth $24.5 million?

Maybe I did not explain well enough or the point of the post is simply being missed by some. I was not trying to "accomplish" anything or argue that Ubaldo should have a $24.5M AAV contract. The OP is simply considering that Ubaldo was somewhat expected to be an up and down player and asking posters what their opinion is of the contract if put in slightly different terms (focusing on this year on a standalone basis). Really just a discussion about FA pitchers.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Nevermore]

This. What sane person would think Ubaldo is worth $24.5 million?

What sane person thinks that any starting pitcher -- or for that matter, any MLB player -- is worth $24.5 M? But that's the market rate these days. Teams are willing to pay that much. Actually, $24.5M has become a bargain rate in the market. Most FA starting pitchers are getting a lot more, and some of them have had horrendous years during the term of their contracts.

[OFFNY]

o

Roy Firestone had this to say about the money that starting pitchers of today make.

o

THURSDAY, MAY 14th:

SCOTT GARCEAU: O Money for pitchers ???

ROY FIRESTONE: O You know what it has come down to ??? A million dollars per win. If a starter wins 10 games, he will get $10 Million per year. If a starter wins 15 games, he will get $15 Million per year. If a starter wins 20 games, he will get $20 Million per year, and so forth. Although there are many other statistics that factor into the effectiveness of a starting pitcher, teams and GM's really pay attention to wins a lot.

[Nevermore]

o

Roy Firestone had this to say about the money that starting pitchers of today make.

And a win is not a very accurate reflection of a pitcher's performance. The "win" statistic is highly over-rated. It's betterto look at ERA or WHIP.