Duquette says signing Davis a priority.

[DrungoHazewood]

$60 MM doesn't get you 9 fWAR for next year, it gets you players that averaged that amount in recent years (approximately). You still need to pick the players that perform, or outperform, their recent levels.

This is one of the big pitfalls with using the WAR/$ calculations -- they are retrospective figures and really can't be used for projecting unless you also build into the calculations hit/miss rates and regression risk. Front offices running these types of exercises might say it will cost around $75 MM in investments to get $60 MM in production once you take all the extra garbage into account.

On average you're signing free agents for their post-peak years based on performance levels established during their peaks. It's kind of like a casino, you may win a few bets but in the long run you're going to lose. At least if you expect little or no aging and regression on longer-term deals. This is why I was so adamantly against a Cruz signing. Betting on a 32-year-old free agent is dicey. 35 is crazy.

[DrungoHazewood]

Or you sign Nelson Cruz for $8 million and get excess value. The uncertainty goes both ways.

You're much more likely to get good value out of shorter and lower-money deals. A 1/8 contract has zero risk.

[MagicBird]

You're much more likely to get good value out of shorter and lower-money deals. A 1/8 contract has zero risk.

And that deal with Cruz doesnt come along more than once in a lifetime. Using that to hope for more of that in the future is pointless for the most part.

[Frobby]

Curtis Granderson was a New York miracle again too. It's amazing what these old guys can do again.

There will always be exceptions to the aging curve in any given year, and some players will beat it more than once. The difficulty is guessing which ones. There are 16 players age 34-35 who have 200+ PA this year. There are 9 who are 36-37, none of whom are OPSing over .737. That includes a number of guys who were excellent at 34-35, like Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez. Half of the 34-35 group are under .700 this year, including 3 under .600. That's why you don't see many four-year deals for players who will be 34-37 during the life of the contract. But that doesn't mean that some player can't beat the odds, it just means you are taking a very risky bet.

[DrungoHazewood]

And that deal with Cruz doesnt come along more than once in a lifetime. Using that to hope for more of that in the future is pointless for the most part.

I think that's a bit of an exaggeration. It's not that unusual to get 3-4 wins out of a reclamation project. Not a free agent, but the O's got 14 wins out of Chris Davis, who was part of a deal for a few months of Koji. They got as much production (over a longer period) out of Nate McLouth as they did out of Cruz. They have received 562 innings of a 3.60 ERA out of minor league free agent Miguel Gonzalez. 3.7 wins for $8M isn't a once-in-a-lifetime thing.

[MagicBird]

I think that's a bit of an exaggeration. It's not that unusual to get 3-4 wins out of a reclamation project. Not a free agent, but the O's got 14 wins out of Chris Davis, who was part of a deal for a few months of Koji. They got as much production (over a longer period) out of Nate McLouth as they did out of Cruz. They have received 562 innings of a 3.60 ERA out of minor league free agent Miguel Gonzalez. 3.7 wins for $8M isn't a once-in-a-lifetime thing.

You can have all the stats and numbers, but when you get the production and the impact that Cruz had on this team for one season at his $8 million, its not a common thing, or even a likely thing.

[DrungoHazewood]

You can have all the stats and numbers, but when you get the production and the impact that Cruz had on this team for one season at his $8 million, its not a common thing, or even a likely thing.

I'm not going to argue too much, but it's just not a once-in-a-lifetime thing to have a player sign a one-year cheap deal to rebuild his value. Adrian Beltre in 2010 with the Sox. Coming off a relatively poor walk year he signed a 1/10 deal and was much better than Cruz was last year.

[Can_of_corn]

You can have all the stats and numbers, but when you get the production and the impact that Cruz had on this team for one season at his $8 million, its not a common thing, or even a likely thing.

Of course you are purposefully using a nebulous term like impact knowing that, since it is unquantifiable, you can assess any value you wish to it.

[Stotle]

Or you sign Nelson Cruz for $8 million and get excess value. The uncertainty goes both ways.

Well, no. Cruz was not signed for $8 MM because he was expected to be a 1 - 1.5 win guy. His salary was artificially depressed because of other variables. The point is that "expected wins" production isn't the driving force in FA prices, which is why judging them using computations revolving around $/fWAR really isn't useful.

I think, generally, you pool profile types and target the best values in each of those pools, the aggregate of which will fit in your budget. Maybe that means focusing on depressed salaries to fill certain holes and being willing to spend a little more on players you like as longer term investments.

[bobmc]

I'm not going to argue too much, but it's just not a once-in-a-lifetime thing to have a player sign a one-year cheap deal to rebuild his value. Adrian Beltre in 2010 with the Sox. Coming off a relatively poor walk year he signed a 1/10 deal and was much better than Cruz was last year.

And not even Cal Jr would argue much either.... but good point in all seriousness.

[MDtransplant757]

I think of the money we singed Cruz for, we should have gotten 2 years out of him.

[MDtransplant757]

That and for davis, i say 8/95 million.

[Can_of_corn]

That and for davis, i say 8/95 million.

If he signs for that and the O's don't resign him I will be very annoyed.

[MDtransplant757]

If he signs for that and the O's don't resign him I will be very annoyed.

You and me both. Worst case scenario is he wears pinstripes next year.

[AlbionHero]

That and for davis, i say 8/95 million.

If thats all Davis can get, he should continue firing Boras. on an 8 year deal he should be looking at 140 mil at least.