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Duquette says signing Davis a priority.

33rdst

By 33rdst
in Orioles Talk

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mcgraw238 Major Leaguer

mcgraw238

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I still quibble with the idea that they "needed" to resign Cruz because everyone knew he'd be great. All I knew is that he was 34 and coming off his first real good season in many years coming off a PED bust, and that the O's would have had to sign him to an unreasonable contract. The reason they didn't need to sign him was that he is still in a position to dramatically decline while being guaranteed $15M a year through age 37.

Seriously? Nelly was coming off his 6th straight 20+ homer season and had regularly produced an OPS in excess of .800. The PED suspension has to be considered but they did have the benefit of having him in house for a season to gauge his character. The biggest knock on Nelly coming into 2014 was that he generally missed some time due to injuries each season, which Buck effectively managed using the DH. I'll agree that he is in position to decline given his age and contract length, but I don't see the need to exaggerate his last few seasons to make that point.

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mcgraw238 Major Leaguer

mcgraw238

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Whereas if we had Cruz we would have a great team? Of course, it would still be in third place because the starting pitching has been problematic. I really thing that you have no point that hasn't already been refuted.

Who said the team would great? There seems to be an inability to discuss baseball without wild exaggerations. The O's have lost 31 games by two runs or less. Regardless of the starting pitching a case can be made that Cruz may have put a dent on that number, maybe a pick up a win or two of the 10-9 variety.

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mdbdotcom Hangout Grand Counsel

mdbdotcom

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Who said the team would great? There seems to be an inability to discuss baseball without wild exaggerations. The O's have lost 31 games by two runs or less. Regardless of the starting pitching a case can be made that Cruz may have put a dent on that number, maybe a pick up a win or two of the 10-9 variety.

The guy I quoted said it. That's why I quoted him.

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mdbdotcom Hangout Grand Counsel

mdbdotcom

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He did not say the retention of Cruz was the lynchpin between good and great. He said the team was weakened by the departures and the club did a lousy job of replacing that lost production.

Which doesn't change the fact that we score more runs per game this year than last and the biggest hole in this team is the starting pitching, which no one clamored to change.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Which doesn't change the fact that we score more runs per game this year than last and the biggest hole in this team is the starting pitching, which no one clamored to change.

There was some clamor about starting Gausman off in the rotation with either Norris or Gonzalez in the pen.

You shift Norris' 11 starts to Gausman and I figure the O's get a couple more wins.

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mcgraw238 Major Leaguer

mcgraw238

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Which doesn't change the fact that we score more runs per game this year than last and the biggest hole in this team is the starting pitching, which no one clamored to change.

We've lost 31 games by 2 runs or less, so there's plenty of opportunity to pick up some wins with the added production, despite the regression of the starting pitching.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Which doesn't change the fact that we score more runs per game this year than last and the biggest hole in this team is the starting pitching, which no one clamored to change.

I think it is fair enough to say that if we had Cruz, our offense would be better and we would have won a few more games despite our disappointing starting pitching. I think the difference between Cruz and his replacements turned out to be larger than expected, both because Cruz has outperformed expectations and because his replacements underperformed. To me, that doesn't mean the decision was wrong when it was made. There is always a range of possible outcomes, and sometimes you make a bet where the odds are in your favor but you lose anyway.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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I think it is fair enough to say that if we had Cruz, our offense would be better and we would have won a few more games despite our disappointing starting pitching. I think the difference between Cruz and his replacements turned out to be larger than expected, both because Cruz has outperformed expectations and because his replacements underperformed. To me, that doesn't mean the decision was wrong when it was made. There is always a range of possible outcomes, and sometimes you make a bet where the odds are in your favor but you lose anyway.

Keep in mind Parades did put up an 807 OPS in the first half so the difference wasn't that pronounced. Obviously in the second half the gulf is much wider.

Cruz was the DH more then half the time last year, there isn't much reason to think that the O's would have kept Parades and installed Cruz as an everyday corner outfielder.

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mcgraw238 Major Leaguer

mcgraw238

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I think it is fair enough to say that if we had Cruz, our offense would be better and we would have won a few more games despite our disappointing starting pitching. I think the difference between Cruz and his replacements turned out to be larger than expected, both because Cruz has outperformed expectations and because his replacements underperformed. To me, that doesn't mean the decision was wrong when it was made. There is always a range of possible outcomes, and sometimes you make a bet where the odds are in your favor but you lose anyway.

To be clear, I'm not saying that Cruz was a must sign at all cost and I certainly didn't expect another 40 HR season from him. I think it reasonable to think Cruz puts up a 25-30 HR season for the next 2 years if retained and certainly inaccurate to suggest, as was in this thread, that he was coming off his first real good season in many years. The decision to go another direction was fine in theory, I was simply shocked on the execution of that plan.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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To be clear, I'm not saying that Cruz was a must sign at all cost and I certainly didn't expect another 40 HR season from him. I think it reasonable to think Cruz puts up a 25-30 HR season for the next 2 years if retained and certainly inaccurate to suggest, as was in this thread, that he was coming off his first real good season in many years. The decision to go another direction was fine in theory, I was simply shocked on the execution of that plan.

I agree that 25-30 HR the next two years was probably a realistic expectation going in.

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