Building Around a Core

[SteveO]

I think Nick was very beloved in Baltimore, and deservedly so, but Jones is beloved as well and is a much better overall player. The PR hit from trading Jones would be much bigger. I wouldn't do it this offseason, but I'd seriously consider it next offseason if the team isn't a contender in 2016.

Perfectly said.

To me the key of this offseason is making a real run at getting Manny locked up. Offer him a real market type deal, if he turns it down, then you know your never going to lock him and he is determined to hit the open market.

If you lock up Manny then perhaps AJ has more value as the Robin to his Batman than the value you would get back in a trade. If your gonna have to move Machado in the next few years because you can't ink him longterm and you can't let an asset like him walk for a pick, then moving AJ makes more sense.

[winkies]

My preferred solution is "yes". You sign or otherwise acquire pieces to try to build a reasonably competitive team whilst building the farm team. This requires careful consideration, and avoiding signing players who'll cost you draft picks. I would sacrifice some MLB payroll to acquire more international talent, if that's what it takes. I vote against a full rebuild - I couch this in the terms of my old Corvette. I enjoy driving the car/baseball too much to tear the whole thing down and hope that I have the resources and time and patience and support to build it all back up in some number of painful years. Let's keep the thing on the road while we're still doing some restoration and mods.

Extricating myself from this strained metaphor, I'd keep Jones, Hardy, and certainly Machado, Schoop, Gausman (and try to extend several of them). Only trade Britton, Tillman if it fits this plan. No deals for guys in A ball unless they're high-ceiling, fast-track players. Let Davis, Chen, O'Day, Wieters walk unless you get team-friendly, low-risk deals, but offer QOs to all of them and take the picks.

Really? I'd prefer the tear the whole thing down and build up a new empire approach.

You sound like you're at a 5 right now. For me I only have 2 settings, off or 12.

If we're going to do it I think we should go for it all.

[Morgan423]

Really? I'd prefer the tear the whole thing down and build up a new empire approach.

You sound like you're at a 5 right now. For me I only have 2 settings, off or 12.

If we're going to do it I think we should go for it all.

Personally I'm behind any decision and direction that the team decides to go... blow it up & long rebuild, or patch the boat and go back out next year, whatever and whichever.

But we must pick a direction and go with it. No half measures and waffling. No repeat of last off season. Let's choose a destination and hit the ground running toward it.

[Roll Tide]

I don't understand this arguement. It's not the players fault. Cruz is having an even better year and Markakis is having a nice year off of surgery.

But getting back to the OP. We shouldn't be too negative. We get a lot of offensive production from positions that are defense first. We still have the same ?'s that we had in ST. LF/RF/1B/DH. Now we have lose Chen. We have talent. The team needs a rake and not a bulldozer. It's hard to predict who we could get because I think the trade market is are most realistic option. Keep Davis. See how much Parra and Oday want. Spend money on quality.

What ??? The Orioles don't have much to trade in the way of prospects. The cupboard is void of uninjured coveted prospects. That is why Duquette couldn't add a difference maker for the run. Davis, Wieters, Chen, and O'Day are gone for sure. The need two quality SPs that they won't be outbidding anybody to get. The will also likely lose

Parra so we again need two MLB quality OFs. Again the Os have shown no ability to outbid anyone in free agency even on their own guys. They need a 1B to replace Davis and don't tell me Steve Pearce. Also Hardy had a pretty deep drop off so a starting quality IF is needed for the spot Manny doesn't play.... So 2 SPs, 2 OFs, 1B, 3B/SS, and a quality DH that they didn't replace when Cruz left. That's a ton!!!

And as I said based off the track record DD will be shopping in the bargain been at reclamation projects, AAAA players etc.

Based on this a full rebuild is the only thing that really makes sense.

[wildcard]

Yes, the core is three 30 home run guys in Jones, Manny, and Schoop but it doesn't end there. There is a lot more talent here than that.

It all starts with starting pitching and the O's have some underachievers that have to return to top form. That is the off season priority.

Tillman averaged 15-7, 3.52 ERA, 206 IP in 33 starts in 2013-2014. He is 27/28 years old and that didn't just go away. The O's need to make sure he is in top form going in to next year. He is a core player.

Gonzalez averaged 11-9, 3.51 ERA, 165 IP, 27 starts in 2013-2014. He is 31/32 years old and that didn't just go away. Yes, he needs rest during the year. And you can't pitch him into the ground the way he was this year. Overuse is not his friend. But 27 starts at 3.51 is nothing to sneeze at. He is a core player.

Gausman is a young #1 draft choice with a great arm, fastball and change who needs a consistent third pitch. If the O's can go get Martinez to help Ubaldo they can get whoever they need to help Gausman. Its got to happen. He is core.

Starting pitching will cost a ton on the FA market and none that the O's can get are probably as good as Zach Britton can be. Time to see what he has as a starter. I'm betting he will be pretty good. He is a core player. He stays.

I don't know about Jimenez yet. What does he do the rest of the season? Excel, fold or something in between. There are more starters coming. Wright, Wilson, Miranda, and Gunkel. None of these are core but they are options.

The O's have a bunch of relievers. Maybe none other that Britton are core but the Blue Jays took a group like this and fashioned them into a very good young pen. The O's have to try to do the same with Brach, Givens, Roe, McFarland, Rondon, Steve Johnson, Drake, Triggs. Toliver, Bundy and whatever starters don't make the rotation. Whether the O's try to sign O'Day depends on the contract.

The O's have about 35m to spend and how they spend it will depend greatly on the market.

Mancini will be a top 50 prospect. He is likely to be on the O's team next season as a 1B or DH. He will have options and the O's will need a fall back player in case he is not ready but he has talent and may be one of the top 5 minor leaguers this year so the jump to the majors is likely.

1. Jones CF

2. Manny, 3B and back up SS

3. Schoop, 2B

4. Hardy SS is the defensive leader and probably 9th place hitter

5. Joseph shares C

6. Clevenger his backup and parttime DH

7. Mancini 1B/DH

8. Flaherty UIF

The O's need two corner outfielder. They have 35m to spend. They have several fringe OF in Lake and Alvarez that might develop into something in time but are probably not starters to begin the year.

I would not be surprised to see Pearce go FA and be resigned for 2M. Walker may be ready to make the jump to the majors. He will also have options.

So the O's need to get the underachievers to pitch and play like they did in 2013-2014. They need to spend the 35M wisely depending on how the FA and trade market play out. Much of the division winning team is still here and some replacements from the farm probably help with Mancini and the pen.

Just my take for now. Probably changes by the end of the season.

[winkies]

Personally I'm behind any decision and direction that the team decides to go... blow it up & long rebuild, or patch the boat and go back out next year, whatever and whichever.

But we must pick a direction and go with it. No half measures and waffling. No repeat of last off season. Let's choose a destination and hit the ground running toward it.

I agree. We should cut down on indecisiveness. I'd rather fail miserably or succeed wildy than field .480 teams consistently.

[24fps]

Personally I'm behind any decision and direction that the team decides to go... blow it up & long rebuild, or patch the boat and go back out next year, whatever and whichever.

But we must pick a direction and go with it. No half measures and waffling. No repeat of last off season. Let's choose a destination and hit the ground running toward it.

I don't think there's the slightest chance that anybody in a decision-making capacity at the Orioles has given a second's thought to blowing the team up. I strongly suspect if you suggested that to them they would look at you like you were from another planet.

They will look at what did work and what didn't work, try to figure out why in each case and move on the the annual problem of how to properly allocate that year's budget given a staggering level of complexity and lack of certainty. Manifestos and rigid doctrine will be over in the corner, ignored and gathering dust - too cumbersome.

I share yours, and everyone's, wish that the Duquette to Toronto circus, or something similar can be avoided this winter.

[24fps]

For me the core team going into 2016 is:

Jones

Machado

Schoop

Hardy

Joseph

Tillman

Gausman

While not core, I think Pearce and Gonzalez are good bounce-back candidates and likely to be cost-effective. Ubaldo is Ubaldo.

Britton would clearly be a core player, but I would trade him specifically to acquire high upside minor league talent. If I didn't get a premium, I would hold on to him but I would make it a priority to move him for quality if at all possible.

Trading Britton, a larger presence in the international market and a successful draft would be huge at this stage. 2016 is a real crossroads season in my opinion.

[DrungoHazewood]

Really? I'd prefer the tear the whole thing down and build up a new empire approach.

You sound like you're at a 5 right now. For me I only have 2 settings, off or 12.

If we're going to do it I think we should go for it all.

I think the binary approach is ridiculously simplistic and often totally unnecessary. People who're always looking to turn the dial to 12 end up with a lot of broken dials.

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree. We should cut down on indecisiveness. I'd rather fail miserably or succeed wildy than field .480 teams consistently.

Who's been fielding .480 teams consistently? Between 2000 and 2011 the Orioles' high point was .481. They were under .425 four times. Then all of a sudden they had the best record in arguably the best division for three years, without doing any nuclear wasteland rebuilding projects.

[weams]

I think the binary approach is ridiculously simplistic and often totally unnecessary. People who're always looking to turn the dial to 12 end up with a lot of broken dials.

Or even evaluating life with that as a standard. That is like a cocaine fiend. Ten is the top. 0 is the bottom. Use he scale. Unless you are in Spinal Tap. And not the drummer.

[tntoriole]

I do not think we compete in 2016 with the plans that say basically keep Davis, keep the same pitching staff, lose Chen, Wieters, etc. So I am increasingly in the blow it up camp. I would not resign any of our free agents, I would not sign any top or second tier free agents, I would keep only Machado, Schoop, Gausman as core untouchables and I would trade any and everybody else for prospects- even Jones if I get the right haul as I don't think Adam is going to be too happy about a rebuild anyway and Britton for key prospect hauls, anybody else for lesser prospects. I would take the dollars, try to extend Manny and sign premium international prospects, take the draft picks in compensation, and use 2016 to see if anybody currently in our upper system is going to be a keeper and whether Bundy, Harvey are going to turn out to be anything and plan towards 2017-2018.

[Tbone83]

This team needs a face lift. Not a whole new face.

This. I know there is a time and place to "blow it up" but I don't think we are there yet. I am not ready to go back to pre-2012 type seasons by getting rid of the proven talent that has been established. Remember that we were "rebuilding" for darn near 15 years, and it sucked.

[winkies]

I think the binary approach is ridiculously simplistic and often totally unnecessary. People who're always looking to turn the dial to 12 end up with a lot of broken dials.

I'm often very relaxed. When I watch TV I'm at a 0. When I'm drinking beer I'm at a 0. When I'm working out or at work I'm at a 12. I don't understand why a professional wouldn't go for it all.

Look at what the Astros are doing now with their total blowup rebuild. Or the Blue Jays going for the WS this year.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't understand why a professional wouldn't go for it all.

Yes, I get that.

There's a difference between doing everything you can within the limits you are given, and "turning it up to 12." And I think burning everything to ground and starting over is horribly overrated. Sometimes you get a bunch of nice draft picks and are successful one day, and sometimes you just lose more.