Who's in the Orioles' top 10 prospects for 2015?

[eb45]

Reyes has justified a top ten spot on the field this year and to say he hasn't is foolish and wrong. You're acting like he's Josh Hart.

[wildcard]

Reyes has justified a top ten spot on the field this year and to say he hasn't is foolish and wrong. You're acting like he's Josh Hart.

No Hart probably doesn't make the top 20. Reyes is just out of my top 10.

I am happy that you are excited about Reyes. You have expressed why and I can see the way you look at it he is someone to be excited about. You are big into how high he might go. As an O's fan I can appreciate your excitement.

But for me, I have seen highly rated guys not achieve as they climb in the minor league organization. Potential is not always met for many reasons. I look forward to him putting up better numbers as he progresses.

And I know you are not alone. He was a SAL League All-Star. That is meaningful. However, to me there is a long way to go and if he is going to make it as a power hitter I need to see more from him to break into the Top 10. Hopefully he does that and a lot more.

[wildcard]

I should know better. Like talking to a brick wall. The same could be said of Ryan Mountcastle who you have #5 on your list.

per Baseball America

No problem with Mountcastle in your top ten but the reasoning for keeping Reyes out (he hasn't done anything yet) applies even moreso to Mountacastle. Reyes belongs in a top ten in that top ten is to be taken seriously. Yours is not. Your whole reasoning on Rowell and Reyes shows that you have no understanding about how prospects and their ranking works. Let's give you a stat sheet on O's minor league farmhands and you can rank them accordingly.

You know what Buck says about shortstops. Get as many of them as you can because they are normally the best athletes and can move can anywhere. Not so true with 3B with lack of range. Maybe he is good 1B maybe not. Time will tell.

[wildcard]

Here is a tidbit.

Calvin Pickering hit 25 homers and had a 949 OPS for the Shorebirds at age 20. You just never know how things will turn out.

[Ruzious]

Here is a tidbit.

Calvin Pickering hit 25 homers and had a 949 OPS for the Shorebirds at age 20. You just never know how things will turn out.

That's why I think we should have a 300 lb limit on all of our prospects!

[CaptainRedbeard]

I should know better. Like talking to a brick wall. The same could be said of Ryan Mountcastle who you have #5 on your list.

No problem with Mountcastle in your top ten but the reasoning for keeping Reyes out (he hasn't done anything yet) applies even moreso to Mountacastle. Reyes belongs in a top ten in that top ten is to be taken seriously. Yours is not. Your whole reasoning on Rowell and Reyes shows that you have no understanding about how prospects and their ranking works. Let's give you a stat sheet on O's minor league farmhands and you can rank them accordingly.

I completely agree...and if wildcard is concerned about Reyes' lack of power, let's do a little numerical comparison, shall we?

Reyes: 18.5 y.o., A-ball, .162 ISO

Mountcastle: 18.5 y.o, Rookie ball, .098 ISO

Reyes only hit 5 homers this year, but I guess doubles and triples don't count for power? Those don't mean anything for projecting power as he gets older? If you're worried about for Reyes, you have to worry about it for Mountcastle...I don't see any reason why Mountcastle should be rated higher as a prospect

[eb45]

Here is a tidbit.

Calvin Pickering hit 25 homers and had a 949 OPS for the Shorebirds at age 20. You just never know how things will turn out.

And it was cloudy one time but didn't rain, therefore there's no point in giving a forecast.

[eb45]

Got bored at work today and ranked all 55 guys in the Orioles system I consider prospects (not counting DSL guys). Here's the top ten:

	NAME	        UPSIDE	PROB.	FLOOR1	Dylan Bundy	70	35	502	Hunter Harvey	65	45	553	Jomar Reyes	65	40	404	Chance Sisco	60	40	455	DJ Stewart	60	40	406	Mike Wright	55	50	457	David Hess	55	45	458	Trey Mancini	55	40	409	R. Mountcastle	55	35	4010	Gray Fenter	55	30	40

My methodology is inexact, but generally speaking, it uses the 20-80 scale, with about an 80th-percentile projection for "upside" and a 40th-percentile for "floor," while "probability" is the likelihood of hitting that 80th-percentile projection. If anyone wants to see the full 55, I guess I can post that, but I can't imagine why anyone would.

[JayThomas]

Reyes is the only position player who played full-season ball last year in the Orioles' system with All-Star upside. In the DWL draft, the players who went after him include:

- the "untouchable" Jorge Mateo (Yankees)

- $725,000 signing Richard Urena (Jays)

- BA/BP top 100 prospect Amed Rosario (Mets)

- BP no. 84 Francisco Mejia (Indians)

Reyes was also the youngest player to play in the SAL, let alone get 300+ PAs there. I've seen scouts give him 70 raw power and in his swing it's easy to see why. If you're not extremely excited about seeing this dude in an Orioles uniform, I don't even know what to tell you.

e: Also, for those *cough* who think he has "no power," he ranked sixth in the SAL in ISO among players 20 or younger. And again, he's also the youngest of them.

Must spread rep. Thanks eb, awesome info.

[JayThomas]

Here is a tidbit.

Calvin Pickering hit 25 homers and had a 949 OPS for the Shorebirds at age 20. You just never know how things will turn out.

Wait, isn't this exactly opposite to your logic throughout this thread???? You've been arguing persistently that the only thing that will persuade you to put Reyes into your top 10 are numbers ... that numbers will indicate top 10 to you. Now you show us Pickering's numbers and point out that he failed??? Doesn't this post suggest that there is something beyond numbers (eg, age, projectionability, etc.) that are at least as important as achieved numerical results in terms of ranking as a 'prospect'???

[Rick_Schu]

We have a guy in instructional league named Christian Turnipseed. Christian Turnipseed.

[wildcard]

Wait, isn't this exactly opposite to your logic throughout this thread???? You've been arguing persistently that the only thing that will persuade you to put Reyes into your top 10 are numbers ... that numbers will indicate top 10 to you. Now you show us Pickering's numbers and point out that he failed??? Doesn't this post suggest that there is something beyond numbers (eg, age, projectionability, etc.) that are at least as important as achieved numerical results in terms of ranking as a 'prospect'???

There are many reasons that a player may fail as he climbs through the minors. Pickering had power but that was about all he had. What he showed was a player with power can hit a lot of homers (25) while playing for the Shorebirds.

Reyes is a projected 1B baseman that has yet to show his power. When he does he will move up my list.

1. Mancini - 359/395/586/981 at AA

2. Harvey- 7-5, 3.18 ERA, 106K in 87.2 IP at A

3. Bundy - 9-3, 2.08 ERA, 119K in 103.2 IP at A-AA

4. Sisco - Batting title at Delmarva in 2014 as a catcher.

5. Mountcastle - .312 avg, .349 OBP at SS at Rookie League

6. Givens - 1.73 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 15/17 S, 79Ks in 57 IP at AA

7. Hess - 9-4, 3.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, at A+

8. Gunkel - 10-5, 2.79 ERA, 1.09 WHIP at AA

9. Wilson - 9-8, 3.40 ERA, 1.18 WHIP at AAA over 2 years

10. Triggs - 1.03 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 17/17 S, 70Ks in 61 IP at AA

11. Reyes - 5 HR, 278/334/440/774 at A

When and if Reyes improves his homer totals he will move up my list IMO. He has plenty of time to reach that goal.

[eb45]

Mountcastle is a projected first baseman/corner OF as well and he hasn't exactly shown his power either. And even if Reyes wasn't projected to have huge power, he'd still have done more than enough to warrant top-five status! I don't understand what's so difficult for you to grasp about this. And as for Triggs, do you want an exhaustive list of 26-year-old AA closers who never amounted to anything? There's a lot more (like, an order of magnitude) more of them then there are 18-year-olds who OPSed .774 at full-season ball and never did anything.

Even if you want to completely disregard the opinions of every scout who has seen Reyes, which apparently you do, you've got to recognize that by far the best predictor of future ML success is having success at a young age relative to one's league. Every single statistical study has borne this out. And Reyes' stats in Delmarva were not all that dissimilar to what your #1 prospect (also a first baseman) put up there while being four years older.

You're taking the reasons he's not a top 25 prospect in all of baseball and using them to justify keeping him entirely out of the top ten. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

[bobmc]

Mountcastle is a projected first baseman/corner OF as well and he hasn't exactly shown his power either. And even if Reyes wasn't projected to have huge power, he'd still have done more than enough to warrant top-five status! I don't understand what's so difficult for you to grasp about this. And as for Triggs, do you want an exhaustive list of 26-year-old AA closers who never amounted to anything? There's a lot more (like, an order of magnitude) more of them then there are 18-year-olds who OPSed .774 at full-season ball and never did anything.

Even if you want to completely disregard the opinions of every scout who has seen Reyes, which apparently you do, you've got to recognize that by far the best predictor of future ML success is having success at a young age relative to one's league. Every single statistical study has borne this out. And Reyes' stats in Delmarva were not all that dissimilar to what your #1 prospect (also a first baseman) put up there while being four years older.

You're taking the reasons he's not a top 25 prospect in all of baseball and using them to justify keeping him entirely out of the top ten. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

LOL

Ok now the remainder of the "solid 55"? Jonah Heim?

[wildcard]

Mountcastle is a projected first baseman/corner OF as well and he hasn't exactly shown his power either. And even if Reyes wasn't projected to have huge power, he'd still have done more than enough to warrant top-five status! I don't understand what's so difficult for you to grasp about this. And as for Triggs, do you want an exhaustive list of 26-year-old AA closers who never amounted to anything? There's a lot more (like, an order of magnitude) more of them then there are 18-year-olds who OPSed .774 at full-season ball and never did anything.

Even if you want to completely disregard the opinions of every scout who has seen Reyes, which apparently you do, you've got to recognize that by far the best predictor of future ML success is having success at a young age relative to one's league. Every single statistical study has borne this out. And Reyes' stats in Delmarva were not all that dissimilar to what your #1 prospect (also a first baseman) put up there while being four years older.

You're taking the reasons he's not a top 25 prospect in all of baseball and using them to justify keeping him entirely out of the top ten. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

No, no, no. There is no reason in the world that you should not feel your assessment is right for you. There is no reason our opinions have to be the same. Hopefully Reyes hits more homers next year and I can agree with you. Till then I want to see more power from a 1b baseman.

As for Mountcastle, for now his avg and OBP look good. If that changes in the future so will his ranking. Up or down.