vs. TWINS, 4/04 (Opening Day)

[scOtt]

The showers, like the Sheriff, are near.

[video=youtube;EYlDbv7MqE8]

[Sessh]

That's not what he says. He said you take the out there because you feel good about a 2-2 tie in the 7th with our bullpen. It's debeateable. There is no "not very smart" answers here so stop with that crap. There are differing thoughts on the matter and Buck was supporting his player.

Giving up a sure out because you'd rather have a strikeout or a ground ball is not very smart unless Park scoring would have given the Twins the lead or won the game in extras. Otherwise, it's not smart to give up outs

to roll the dice on getting a different kind of out with two runners in scoring position. It is debatable and that's my opinion; it's not very smart. There's no crap to stop. Please don't tell me to stop having opinions just

because they differ from yours. That is allowed here, isn't it? Buck said Joey made the right call. Why do you assume he only said it to "support his player" and not because it was, in fact, the right call?

[Number5]

Ain't the beer cold!

Go to war, Miss Agnes!

[SteveA]

Giving up a sure out because you'd rather have a strikeout or a ground ball is not very smart unless Park scoring would have given the Twins the lead or won the game in extras. Otherwise, it's not smart to give up outs

to roll the dice on getting a different kind of out with two runners in scoring position. It is debatable and that's my opinion; it's not very smart. There's no crap to stop. Please don't tell me to stop having opinions just

because they differ from yours. That is allowed here, isn't it? Buck said Joey made the right call. Why do you assume he only said it to "support his player" and not because it was, in fact, the right call?

I haven't read the whole thread but did anyone look up the win probability table? Seems like that would be a logical way of deciding the right decision.

Drop the ball:

Top of the 7th, one out, 2nd and 3rd, home team up by 1: home team win probability 52.7%.

Catch the ball, run scores:

Top of the 7th, 2 outs, man on 2nd, tie game: home team win probability 52.4%.

Catch the ball, runner doesn't tag and score:

Top of the 7th, 2 outs, 2nd and 3rd, home team up by 1: home team win probability 67.6%.

So IF you assume there is a 100% chance the runner tags and scores if you make the catch, there is a VERY VERY slight advantage in dropping the ball. But if there is just a small chance the runner doesn't tag or trips and goes back to the base... That would skew the #s enough to say you should make the catch.

It's that close!

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