Jones Dropped to 5th in the Lineup

[Redskins Rick]

We've discussed this in other seasons, but we wouldn't be able to field a 25 man roster if we DFA'd every player who went through a slump. Further, if we cut bait with eveyone who is slumping, no one would ever come out of slumps.

But, we fill up the roster with players from other teams, and win the WS!

[LC_O's_87]

Jones has been looking pretty good the last few games. But I think Buck is right on this one. Rickard-Machado-Davis-Trumbo-Jones seems like it's likely to be the best arrangement of that top five.

I agree, definitely in favor of the new look. Hidden Benefit -- Putting our best OBP guy directly in front of Davis will give him more opportunities with the modified shift.

[DrungoHazewood]

But, wait, it doesn't matter where in the batter bats in the batter order????

It doesn't.

[El Gordo]

It doesn't.

Not in the aggregate, but this week with Trumbo hitting and Manny in front of CD it does. When they cool off then not so much.

[WEAVERMAN]

Only hitting .196 and worse career vs. Danks.

A.J. will be okay, but until further notice, 5th or 6th should be spot.

[slakattack]

Maybe he winced when Davis got thrown out, costing him an RBI. Other than that, it was a pretty good night.

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AJ definitely winced and doubled over after coming up empty on a vicious cut in the 7th. I guess he's just playing through it...for now. I have never seen him or any other player wince and double over because of an ump's call or teammate's play on the field.

[LC_O's_87]

It doesn't.

I'm sure I've missed countless debates on this topic, but could you give me the reader's digest version of why ordering your hitters in different combinations has no effect on offensive output?

[Can_of_corn]

I'm sure I've missed countless debates on this topic' date=' but could you give me the reader's digest version of why ordering your hitters in different combinations has no effect on offensive output?[/quote']

I'm sure you could count that high but I'm not sure why you would want to.

This is very well traveled ground.

The gist of it is: Managers use sub-optimal lineups but the margins are small enough it doesn't make a significant difference.

Who is in your lineup matters a lot more than the order they hit.

[scOtt]

About the only the that matters about the batting order is the higher spots get more ABs over a full season.

[jjnono]

I'm sure you could count that high but I'm not sure why you would want to.

This is very well traveled ground.

The gist of it is: Managers use sub-optimal lineups but the margins are small enough it doesn't make a significant difference.

Who is in your lineup matters a lot more than the order they hit.

So picking names out of a hat to comprise a batting order would theoretically yield the same offensive results for the team and the batters over the course of the season? Fascinating. EDIT: I should point out that what I mean is if you took your nine best hitters and tossed their names into a hat...

Would it also hold true that it shouldn't matter where and when pitchers pitch?

What's a manager to do?

[Can_of_corn]

So picking names out of a hat to comprise a batting order would theoretically yield the same offensive results for the team and the batters over the course of the season? Fascinating. EDIT: I should point out that what I mean is if you took your nine best hitters and tossed their names into a hat...

Would it also hold true that it shouldn't matter where and when pitchers pitch?

What's a manager to do?

I didn't say that. I said the difference wouldn't be significant. Considering that most lineups are no where near as egregious as a random lineup has the potential to be worrying about it is even less important. We all agree Hardy shouldn't hit in the two hole but odds are good Buck didn't cost the O's much putting him there.

As for pitching, I'm in favor of having a high leverage reliever pitch the first. Bring the starter in the game in the second.

But once again you have to evaluate the impact such moves would have on the players and weight it against the theoretical gains.

[Sessh]

So picking names out of a hat to comprise a batting order would theoretically yield the same offensive results for the team and the batters over the course of the season? Fascinating. EDIT: I should point out that what I mean is if you took your nine best hitters and tossed their names into a hat...

Would it also hold true that it shouldn't matter where and when pitchers pitch?

What's a manager to do?

I've never really thought about this before, but it makes sense that batting order wouldn't really matter. If your #4 hitter makes the last out of an inning, suddenly he is now the ninth batter up next inning and your five

hole hitter leads off. The "order" changes every inning depending on who makes the last out, but Manny Machado is just as dangerous whether he is second up in the inning or eighth.

Pitchers on the other hand, a manager can have way more control over that. I'm not sure I agree with using your best guy in the sixth because there is a big jam to get out of. I think you have to be able to rely on every

guy in your bullpen or else what's the point in having them there? I think the pitcher argument is a little trickier than the batting order one, but this is the first time I've really thought about it.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I didn't say that. I said the difference wouldn't be significant. Considering that most lineups are no where near as egregious as a random lineup has the potential to be worrying about it is even less important. We all agree Hardy shouldn't hit in the two hole but odds are good Buck didn't cost the O's much putting him there.

As for pitching, I'm in favor of having a high leverage reliever pitch the first. Bring the starter in the game in the second.

But once again you have to evaluate the impact such moves would have on the players and weight it against the theoretical gains.

There's probably way too much in the error term of those models to worry about it on an individual game basis. Psychological effects, someone nursing a nick, etc.

[Frobby]

I think there's a difference between thinking Jones is hurt and should go on the DL, and thinking he should bat 7th.

I'm glad Jones performed well yesterday and hope Buck is right that Jones can play through his injury without having it linger and get worse. I'm nervous about it, though.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm sure I've missed countless debates on this topic' date=' but could you give me the reader's digest version of why ordering your hitters in different combinations has no effect on offensive output?[/quote']

- Who hits behind who or in front of who is of very limited impact

- Hitting one spot higher or lower is about 20 PAs over a whole season - and the difference between Manny and Ryan Flaherty over 20 PAs is tiny. Even the difference between 140 PAs (difference between leadoff and 9th over 162 games) of a great and a terrible hitter is quite small, maybe 10-15 runs.

So if you bat your worst hitter first and your best hitter 9th every single game, which no one in their right mind would do, might cost you a dozen runs over 162 games. You can conclude from that, that any two semi-rational lineups are essentially indistinguishable in terms of production.

The difference between having 2014 JJ Hardy and 2015 JJ Hardy is way bigger than the difference between a nonsensical lineup and an optimized lineup.

Now... on the other hand... who is in the lineup can have a rather large effect.