Alex Wells

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, phillyOs119 said:

I don't think so, an O'Day type reliever without the funky delivery isn't a major league player.

 

Yet you think Wells is a starting pitching prospect? Care to elaborate?

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Ohfan67 said:

Yet you think Wells is a starting pitching prospect? Care to elaborate?

Darren O'Day without the funky delivery is a guy with an 87mph fastball, a fringe average slider, and ok command/control.

Alex Wells projects (if things go right) to be a guy with an 88mph fastball, an average curveball, a plus change-up, and plus-plus command/control.

[Tony-OH]

27 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

Do you consider him a serious prospect? I respect your opinion.

I do. Now I'd like to see him more against upper competition before anointing him too highly, but I think he's one of those guys who will be able to use pinpoint command and just enough deception to make his lack of velocity work.

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

Do you consider him a serious prospect? I respect your opinion.

I come back to my question: what to you is a "serious" prospect?   That's a very subjective word.    If you think a guy has a 1 in 3-4 shot of being a somewhat successful starting pitcher in the big leagues, is that "serious?"    Or are you looking at more certainty than that?    Was Zach Davies a "serious" prospect back in 2012 when he posted a 3.86 ERA at Delmarva at age 19?

[Ohfan67]

22 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Darren O'Day without the funky delivery is a guy with an 87mph fastball, a fringe average slider, and ok command/control.

Alex Wells projects (if things go right) to be a guy with an 88mph fastball, an average curveball, a plus change-up, and plus-plus command/control.

The fastball speed, the fastball speed. That was my point. BTW, I guess the Orioles and other teams should be teaching funky deliveries because apparently that’s all O’day has. 

[Luke-OH]

10 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

The fastball speed, the fastball speed. That was my point. BTW, I guess the Orioles and other teams should be teaching funky deliveries because apparently that’s all O’day has. 

Do you know O'Day's history?  He had a traditional delivery and was a walk-on in college who got cut almost immediately his freshman year.  He developed the the sidearm delivery in a summer beer league and the rest is history. 

It's like a knuckle-ball though, it works for some people, but it's not easy to do. BTW, teams do change pitchers' arm slots from time to time to try and add deception. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, phillyOs119 said:

Darren O'Day without the funky delivery is a guy with an 87mph fastball, a fringe average slider, and ok command/control.

I'd say that except for the last two years, O'Day's command/control was much better than OK.    It's a little hard to analyze his stuff and his delivery separately.   The delivery creates angles and planes on the pitches that are different than pitchers who have overhand deliveries.

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Frobby said:

I'd say that except for the last two years, O'Day's command/control was much better than OK.    It's a little hard to analyze his stuff and his delivery separately.   The delivery creates angles and planes on the pitches that are different than pitchers who have overhand deliveries.

My point is you can't just say O'Day but not sidearm as a comp. for someone, that's meaningless.  O'Day wasn't a good pitcher even at the amateur level until he started throwing sidearm.

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

Hunter Harvey territory.

If that's the test, I don't consider Wells to be in Hunter Harvey territory.    IMO, Wells probably has about as good a chance of becoming a decent major league starter as Harvey has of becoming a TOR starter.    Harvey has both a higher ceiling and a higher floor, I'd say.    

[Ohfan67]

4 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

Do you know O'Day's history?  He had a traditional delivery and was a walk-on in college who got cut almost immediately his freshman year.  He developed the the sidearm delivery in a summer beer league and the rest is history. 

It's like a knuckle-ball though, it works for some people, but it's not easy to do. BTW, teams do change pitchers' arm slots from time to time to try and add deception. 

I’m kind of serious about teaching the delivery. The Orioles had a little bring-back-the-knuckleball fetish a couple of years ago and invested in special coaching. Someone should convince them that bringing back submariners is the future. Serious consulting money to be made. 

[Ruzious]

Baltimore already has 3 sidearm pitchers.  

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

I’m kind of serious about teaching the delivery. The Orioles had a little bring-back-the-knuckleball fetish a couple of years ago and invested in special coaching. Someone should convince them that bringing back submariners is the future. Serious consulting money to be made. 

Wouldn't be a bad idea, maybe turn Tyler Wilson into a submariner.

They do have a sidearm guy with a pretty good delivery in the minors, he's pretty dominant when his control is good. His name is Joe Johnson if you want to follow him.

They also have the other extreme of weird deliveries with Brandon Bonilla who throws pretty much straight over the top. 

[Ruzious]

On 10/4/2017 at 8:43 AM, Frobby said:

Nope, not kidding.   See Kyle Hendricks, Josh Tomlin, Jason Vargas.    Lower velocity like that decreases your odds, but it doesn't make it impossible if you have other things going for you.    

Marco Estrada's another - though he's coming off a bad year.  And as Tony mentioned, Wells has the advantage of being a lefty. 

Speaking of which, Scotty McGregor was a slow-throwing lefty that did pretty well for himself.  

  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Marco Estrada's another - though he's coming off a bad year.  And as Tony mentioned, Wells has the advantage of being a lefty. 

Speaking of which, Scotty McGregor was a slow-throwing lefty that did pretty well for himself.  

  

How much lower was the average velocity and the K/9 rates when MeGregor pitched?

[Ruzious]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How much lower was the average velocity and the K/9 rates when MeGregor pitched?

Somewhat - to be precise.