Alex Wells

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, birdwatcher55 said:

How many 88 mph soft tossers make it? Not many I'm guessing. I don't consider him a serious prospect.

Depends what you mean by "serious prospect," I guess.    I think he has a reasonable shot at progressing to the majors and being in a major league rotation for several years.    That's good enough for me.   

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, birdwatcher55 said:

With an 88 mph heater? You're kidding, right?

Nope, not kidding.   See Kyle Hendricks, Josh Tomlin, Jason Vargas.    Lower velocity like that decreases your odds, but it doesn't make it impossible if you have other things going for you.    

[jcarm]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Nope, not kidding.   See Kyle Hendricks, Josh Tomlin, Jason Vargas.    Lower velocity like that decreases your odds, but it doesn't make it impossible if you have other things going for you.    

Maybe Mark Buehrle is a possible comp.

[Luke-OH]

5 hours ago, birdwatcher55 said:

With an 88 mph heater? You're kidding, right?

I was hesitant to get on board, since he doesn't have a typical profile.  I think he's a serious prospect though, remember, he's just 20 and he already has excellent command.  While he doesn't have a projectable body, some strength gain is reasonable to expect.  He's taken his change-up to the next level this year, and he has a solid curveball as well.  

He doesn't have "good stuff" but hitters see good stuff, here's how you can tell (other than the eye test).  He had the second lowest line drive allowed rate of any pitcher in the Sally league with 80+ IP (2nd out of 68).  He was also in the top 25% of IFFB rate, and the top 30% in opposite field batted balls.  These are all things that pitchers with plus fastballs generally excel at.  

Now let's talk about BB rate.  A BB rate of 4.5% is considered excellent.  Alex Wells was 1.8%, which was second best in all US based leagues.   

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, jcarm said:

Maybe Mark Buehrle is a possible comp.

Yes, a very good one.    Mind you, I'm not saying Wells is likely to be a successful major league pitcher, much less one as successful as Buehrle.   I'm just saying an 88 mph fastball doesn't make it impossible.    Plus command of several pitches is certainly going to be necessary to overcome that disadvantage.   From what I've read, Wells has plus command of his fastball and change, can vary the speed of both those pitches, and has a curve ball that was expected to be his best pitch but didn't look as good this year.    I figure development of that pitch, and command of it, will probably dictate how far Wells can go.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Now let's talk about BB rate.  A BB rate of 4.5% is considered excellent.  Alex Wells was 1.8%, which was second best in all US based leagues.   

Who was better?

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Who was better?

Shane Bieber.  Aaron Civale was close behind him.  Both 2016 college draftees.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Shane Bieber.  Aaron Civale was close behind him.  Both 2016 college draftees.

Both in the Cleveland organization, interesting.    Looks like neither of them made a BA top 20 list, either.   Command and control guys get no respect!

[Luke-OH]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Both in the Cleveland organization, interesting.    Looks like neither of them made a BA top 20 list, either.   Command and control guys get no respect!

I get it that if a guy has good stuff, they are more likely to develop command/control than vice versa.  However, in my opinion (which isn't worth much) it seems like the prospect analyst community has gone too far in the valuation of "stuff" over pitchability/command.

Using guys in the Orioles organization for example, I'm not high on Ofelky Peralta or Jesus Liranzo.  They have great stuff, but in both guys I see a control/command issue that isn't easily fixable.  They have deliveries that will always make in hard to pitch consistently IMO. 

I'm fairly high on Lowther and Wells because they show plus command, not only of their below average fastballs, but also of plus secondary pitches the will miss bats (Lowther's CB and Wells' CH). 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I get it that if a guy has good stuff, they are more likely to develop command/control than vice versa.  However, in my opinion (which isn't worth much) it seems like the prospect analyst community has gone too far in the valuation of "stuff" over pitchability/command.

Using guys in the Orioles organization for example, I'm not high on Ofelky Peralta or Jesus Liranzo.  They have great stuff, but in both guys I see a control/command issue that isn't easily fixable.  They have deliveries that will always make in hard to pitch consistently IMO. 

I'm fairly high on Lowther and Wells because they show plus command, not only of their below average fastballs, but also of plus secondary pitches the will miss bats (Lowther's CB and Wells' CH). 

I've always liked the command/control guys.    Just a personal preference, not a "who is more likely to succeed" thing.    It's just fun to watch a guy who can't overpower batters still dominate a game by confusing them and disrupting their timing.    And, I like watching guys who don't fool around, throw strikes, get ahead and don't let batters get on base by keeping the bat on their shoulders.   

I also really enjoy it when a pitcher who used to have a blazing fastball is able to adjust after he loses it.    Mussina sat 93-95 in his prime, but averaged 86 mph in his final season, when he won 20 and posted a 3.37 ERA.   To me, that's pitching.   

[Ohfan67]

Wells will be fun to watch as he moves forward. Another possibility is that Wells becomes an o’day type reliever without the funky delivery. 

[Luke-OH]

53 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Another possibility is that Wells becomes an o’day type reliever without the funky delivery. 

I don't think so, an O'Day type reliever without the funky delivery isn't a major league player.

 

[Tony-OH]

17 hours ago, birdwatcher55 said:

How many 88 mph soft tossers make it? Not many I'm guessing. I don't consider him a serious prospect.

You should, being left-handed he doesn't need the quite velocity to project as much as righties.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

I was hesitant to get on board, since he doesn't have a typical profile.  I think he's a serious prospect though, remember, he's just 20 and he already has excellent command.  While he doesn't have a projectable body, some strength gain is reasonable to expect.  He's taken his change-up to the next level this year, and he has a solid curveball as well.  

He doesn't have "good stuff" but hitters see good stuff, he's how you can tell (other than the eye test).  He had the second lowest line drive allowed rate of any pitcher in the Sally league with 80+ IP (2nd out of 68).  He was also in the top 25% of IFFB rate, and the top 30% in opposite field batted balls.  These are all things that pitchers with plus fastballs generally excel at.  

Now let's talk about BB rate.  A BB rate of 4.5% is considered excellent.  Alex Wells was 1.8%, which was second best in all US based leagues.   

He also had he best strike percentage in the organization for a starter so it's not like he's just getting guys out by getting them to chase.

[Ruzious]

3 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

I get it that if a guy has good stuff, they are more likely to develop command/control than vice versa.  However, in my opinion (which isn't worth much) it seems like the prospect analyst community has gone too far in the valuation of "stuff" over pitchability/command.

Using guys in the Orioles organization for example, I'm not high on Ofelky Peralta or Jesus Liranzo.  They have great stuff, but in both guys I see a control/command issue that isn't easily fixable.  They have deliveries that will always make in hard to pitch consistently IMO. 

I'm fairly high on Lowther and Wells because they show plus command, not only of their below average fastballs, but also of plus secondary pitches the will miss bats (Lowther's CB and Wells' CH). 

As long as Lowther and Wells continue to miss bats at great rates, I'm going to believe they are legit prospects.