Bedard's History Does Not Make Him Untouchable

[Ruzious]

Sure we can. We should get some nice draft picks for him if he does leave. I know the turnaround time would be a lot longer, but worse things have happened before. As long as we still have Jordan calling the shots, it might be worth it to try and resign him and if he doesn't, take the 2 or so draft picks that are coming our way...

At best, you get a late 1st and a sammich pick. That's just not enough for an ace - especially when the O's should (hopefully) be competing in the next few years. As sector17 said, Bedard is very likely to bolt after next season. He does not appear to be happy here. I would be aggressively looking to see what I could get for him now. The Braves are a team that has starting pitchers dropping like flies and have a bunch of young talent that could be traded. Get a couple of top pitching prospects and one of their excess SS prospects - and make it so.

[Mackus]

As sector17 said, Bedard is very likely to bolt after next season.

Bedard is not a FA until after the 2009 season.

[davearm]

Just to come to Frobby's defense here, most often you see the pro-Bedard folks spitting out peripherals like k/9 and command rate, and pointing out anomalies in BABIP and HR/FB rate and such.

Those metrics most certainly have more predictive value than reflective value.

[Moose Milligan]

Bedard should be shopped for no other reason than he may bring a huge return and we are supposedly "deep" in pitching. However, the initial premise of this thread re: complete games is completely ridiculous and I've lost all respect for the group of people on here who continue to harp on this stupid guts/complete games crap. It is such a ridiculous, surface level, simplistic argument. The people buying into it should be ashamed.

Can't argue with that at all.

[Goop]

I think we need to keep Bedard.

The pitching has sucked for years, and now we have a decent rotation, even after some devastating injuries. Why give him up? (I know someone will say for a bat, but there are other people we can move to get a bat without disrupting the rotation.)

As the t-shirt says, "Erik Bedard makes me like Canada a little bit more."

[Sports Guy]

1970....Does xFIP weigh one stat over another or are they equal?

What makes that better than DIPS?

[Frobby]

So, if Bedard continues to give up 6 bleeders/bloopers once of out every three starts, he will be less valuable to you? His start on Sunday was a perfect illustration of why you have to look at more than just stats to assess a pitcher. Bedard was completely and totally screwed on Sunday due to lucky hits and umpire ball/strike incompetency.

Bedard has pitched extremely well this year. Extremely well. He has easily been the toughest pitcher on our staff to hit despite the statistics. It seems that for every blooper and grounder in the perfect spot that Bedard has given up, Trachsel and Guthrie have had a line drive or very hard grounder hit right at someone. The fact that someone as grounded as you doesn't even believe that really worries me.

Bedard should be shopped for no other reason than he may bring a huge return and we are supposedly "deep" in pitching. However, the initial premise of this thread re: complete games is completely ridiculous and I've lost all respect for the group of people on here who continue to harp on this stupid guts/complete games crap. It is such a ridiculous, surface level, simplistic argument. The people buying into it should be ashamed.

Why does every argument have to be either/or? Any pitcher can have an unlucky day and I would be the first to admit that. Show me a player who has a significant discrepancy between his actual ERA and his DIPS or his xFIP and I will probably agree that luck explains some of it, and sometimes most of it.

But I simply do not believe that HR's, K's and BB's tell everything about a pitcher, and that whatever happens on batted balls is random luck. I believe that when Steve Trachsel throws a complete game and allows one run without striking out a batter, that was more than simply the luckiest day of his adult life. I have seen way too many baseball games in my life where hitters were off balance and couldn't make solid contact off a pitcher even though they were able to put the bat on the baseball most of the time. And nobody is going to bully me out of that belief.

By the way, did I say that Bedard has not pitched well this year? He was being compared to the two pitchers with the lowest ERA's in the majors and a third pitcher whose ERA is more than a half-run better than Bedard's this year and was last year too. All I was saying is that he hasn't pitched as well as those three.

[Baltimoron]

But I simply do not believe that HR's, K's and BB's tell everything about a pitcher, and that whatever happens on batted balls is random luck. I believe that when Steve Trachsel throws a complete game and allows one run without striking out a batter, that was more than simply the luckiest day of his adult life. I have seen way too many baseball games in my life where hitters were off balance and couldn't make solid contact off a pitcher even though they were able to put the bat on the baseball most of the time. And nobody is going to bully me out of that belief.

Nobody should be trying too.

The argument is more along the lines of, striking guys out is an extreme example of the ability to prevent the batter from making good contact. No one disputes that a pitcher can have great stuff and not K a lot of batters in a particular game.

But if time and time again he is fooling batters and they aren't making good contact (i.e. partial contact), wouldn't we also expect him to be missing some bats completely as well, since that (a swinging K) is the epitome of not making good contact?

If he is preventing "good contact", but he's not striking people out, then he isn't missing those bats by much, is he? Hence he doesn't have that great of a margin for error?

Its the repeated success in the face of a very small margin for error that is "lucky." "Luck" also refers to positive things that comes from factors out of his control, such as hitters missing hittable pitches, balls being hit to where the defense is positioned, the defense making the plays they should and some exceptional plays as well.

Along these lines, any guy can have bad stuff, few ks and still have good results in a game. Ever see a mediocre pitcher get made to look much better when he faces the Os? Bad pitches are often left unpunished.

So called DIPS theory is a macro, not micro theory.

[GoOrioles123]

I cannot believe some people. Who cares about complete games. I dont and am not sure anybody else is concerned about it. Him having 5 career complete games instead of 0 at this point in his career wouldn't make him any better of a pitcher.

You are basically saying the difference between Bedard being untouchable is that if he went an extra inning in 2 or 3 starts in his career he would vault into a special category. How foolish does that sound? Bedard doesn't have to prove anything to anybody or be Macho Man. He needs to pitch the way he has been.

We are in a fortunate situation of having a deep pitching staff for a long time. This is what teams look for. You want to panic and move our best pitcher just because he has great value and we suck offensively? We aren't going to become a top flight offense anyway, so lets keep the pitching advantage. I would rather take my chances with very good pitching than average in pitching and offense.

[Frobby]

I don't believe HR's, K's, and BB's tell everything. Hence why my post said that we need to watch the pitcher to get some of the story. I haven't watched all these other pitcher's throw all year so I can't say how hard it is to make solid contact on them, but I have watched all of our pitcher's starts this year and Bedard has been by far the hardest for the other teams to hit hard. The fact that Guthrie and Trachsel have outperformed him is a results based fact but it isn't the truth.

I've watched Sabathia pitch several times this year and I think Bedard is much harder to hit. Same with Kazmir. Santana is slightly harder to hit. I have only seen three AL pitchers this year that I would consider harder to hit solidly than Bedard - Santana, Verlander, and Beckett. The Oakland boys are good pitchers, but there are numbers are better than they should be. Burnett can be harder to hit at times, but his lack of control leads to more grooved fastballs and an overall easier time of it. Halladay has slipped a bit this year IMO. The Angel starters are all good, but can be hit with proper patience and approach.

I don't think you wrote that he hasn't pitched well, but your tone seemed to be that he hadn't been "doing it" real well as you put it (preventing runs) so he shouldn't get credit for these peripheral stats. I'm just saying that by watching his starts I can see that his peripheral stats are much closer to telling the true story than his actual ERA and W/L record.

Let me ask this question and we'll see if we're on the same or different pages:

Do you believe that Bedard has been the most difficult pitcher to hit on the staff this year? If not, then who do you think has been the most difficult to hit? Why do you think that? By hit, I don't mean making contact. I mean which pitcher appears to have the hitters struggling the most to make solid contact.

First of all, I can't claim to have watched all of the Orioles' starts this year. I usually see at least a few innings of the game, but often I miss the first 3 innings or so while I'm getting home from work and having dinner with my family. And on weekends I often have family oblligations that keep me from watching, especially on Sunday afternoons when I'm usually watching Frobby Jr. pitch little league. But I certainly see enough to get good impressions of what is going on. And I've been to five games in person, including Guthrie's starts on May 19 vs. the Nats (7 IP, 4 H, 1 R) and June 9 vs. the Rockies (8 IP, 6 H, 2 R) and his relief appearance on April 10 against the Tigers (3 IP, 3 H, 1 R). Sadly, I haven't seen Bedard pitch in person this year.

I would say it is a close call as to whether Guthrie or Bedard has been harder to hit solidly (when contact is made). As an initial observation, I feel Bedard did not pitch that well in April. Maybe not as poorly as his April ERA indicated, but he wasn't at his best, either. He was very sharp throughout May, probably better than Guthrie. He seemed a little tired in his June 4 start, and I didn't see his last outing so I really can't comment.

I do agree with you that Guthrie more than Bedard has benefitted from some good defense. He had that one game where Mora made at least 3 excellent plays, and in the game I went to this weekend Patterson made a great catch at the wall. But I also think that his style of pitching, as opposed to Bedard's, lends itself to an alert defense. His P/PA and P/IP are both significantly lower than Bedard's, he's a faster worker, and he is less likely to strike guys out so the defense tends to be on their toes. With Bedard, I think the defense sometimes gets lulled to sleep with the deeper counts and his tendency to strike out nearly one-third of all the batters he faces.

Trachsel is easier to hit solidly than Bedard. However, he has made very few mistakes over the center of the plate, whereas Bedard has made the occasional mistake. The difference is, Trachsel knows he can't afford those mistakes and would rather walk a guy than risk giving a batter a pitch he can pound. Bedard knows that because of his stuff he can afford some mistakes and is better off doing that than trying to be too fine and getting behind. Different approaches because they have different stuff.

When it is all said and done, I fully expect Bedard to have the lowest ERA, BAA and OPSA of the starting staff. Guthrie may end up having a lower WHIP though because his walk rate is so low.

I hope I answered your question, and will be interested to see where you agree and disagree.

[section18]

Since most of Erik's Fan Club has responded I decided to compare Erik to 4 current pitchers. Some of you didn't think it was fair to compare him to 2 pitchers some have implied were really old. Palmer is doing color on TV and McGregor is pitching coach at Bowie so both of them get a good opportunity to watch the young pitchers develop and make suggestions along the way and neither one is a dinosaur. Which of the following pitchers do you think are better than Bedard?

Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, Brad Penny or Derek Lowe....maybe none of them?

Early career stats for these pitchers in comparison to Bedard

Bedard -97 starts -0 complete games 0 shutouts - record 31-33

Lilly - 1st 103 starts - 4 complete games +2 shutouts -record 34-34

Meche - 1st 111 starts - 3 complete games +2 shutouts - record 44-36

Penny - 1st 109 starts - 2 complete games + 2 shutouts - record 40-34

Lowe - 1st 87 starts - 2 complete games + 1 shutout -record 58-47

I am surprised at how many on OH rally around Bedard. None of you get upset when he tells the manager he is tired in the 5th or 6th inning. None of you care about complete games. What? I don't care if it's 1966, 1983, 1999 or 2007. Pitching is pitching. Some of you obviously aren't old enough to remember Palmer or McGregor throwing complete games and shutouts so you don't appreciate their conditioning, game preparation and determination. If Palmer or McGregor read the articles on OH and this one in particular I hope they don't think we don't admire or respect their accomplishments. I am sure they are dismayed that a pitcher with Bedard's stuff doesn't finish a few games once in a awhile and maybe throw a shutout. I am not saying he needs to throw 4 or 5 complete games every season but it would help our bullpen if he could go 8 or 9 once in awhile. Why is he allowed to leave after the game without speaking to the media?

Bedard's record is not as good as any of these pitchers. Why do you think that is? Their teams score more runs? The pitchers pitch on days when the wind is blowing in? Maybe they prepare better and maybe they are in better condition? I think Palmer made the comment that a lot of players today do not put enough time into pre-game preparation. He was referring to pitchers and hitters.

Please don't stop supporting him since we may have to trade him when he slips after one of his coming losses and tells everyone he is not extending when his contract is up. It's coming so you might as well be prepared and starting exploring any trade offers that come in on him.

Ace? ......are you kidding? He's 4-4 Guthrie is 3-1 and could easily be 7-1 with a 2.70 ERA to Bedard's 3.72 ERA. Erik is a nice pitcher that keeps things interesting usually for about 5-6 innings and then says he's tired. I predict Guthrie will throw a complete game before Bedard. If the manager would have left him in a little bit longer he would probably have 2 complete games by now. Bedard is not an untouchable.

[section18]

Another surprise.....Daniel Cabrera has 95 career starts and has 4 complete games and 2 shutouts. I think most of us think Erik is a better pitcher than Daniel. After tonight's lethargic effort by Daniel most of us will remain in Erik's corner. I think he is a terrific pitcher that tries to outsmart the hitters too much and he ends up throwing way too many pitches in the first 5 or 6 innings.

[Lt Melmo]

/smacks forehead

COMPLETE GAMES ARE NOT A MEASURE OF A PITCHER'S TALENT

COMPLETE GAMES ARE NOT A MEASURE OF A PITCHER'S TALENT

COMPLETE GAMES ARE NOT A MEASURE OF A PITCHER'S TALENT

(AND NEITHER ARE WINS)

[Mackus]

Since most of Erik's Fan Club has responded I decided to compare Erik to 4 current pitchers. Some of you didn't think it was fair to compare him to 2 pitchers some have implied were really old. Palmer is doing color on TV and McGregor is pitching coach at Bowie so both of them get a good opportunity to watch the young pitchers develop and make suggestions along the way and neither one is a dinosaur. Which of the following pitchers do you think are better than Bedard?

Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, Brad Penny or Derek Lowe....maybe none of them?

Early career stats for these pitchers in comparison to Bedard

Bedard -97 starts -0 complete games 0 shutouts - record 31-33

Lilly - 1st 103 starts - 4 complete games +2 shutouts -record 34-34

Meche - 1st 111 starts - 3 complete games +2 shutouts - record 44-36

Penny - 1st 109 starts - 2 complete games + 2 shutouts - record 40-34

Lowe - 1st 87 starts - 2 complete games + 1 shutout -record 58-47

I am surprised at how many on OH rally around Bedard. None of you get upset when he tells the manager he is tired in the 5th or 6th inning. None of you care about complete games. What? I don't care if it's 1966, 1983, 1999 or 2007. Pitching is pitching. Some of you obviously aren't old enough to remember Palmer or McGregor throwing complete games and shutouts so you don't appreciate their conditioning, game preparation and determination. If Palmer or McGregor read the articles on OH and this one in particular I hope they don't think we don't admire or respect their accomplishments. I am sure they are dismayed that a pitcher with Bedard's stuff doesn't finish a few games once in a awhile and maybe throw a shutout. I am not saying he needs to throw 4 or 5 complete games every season but it would help our bullpen if he could go 8 or 9 once in awhile. Why is he allowed to leave after the game without speaking to the media?

Bedard's record is not as good as any of these pitchers. Why do you think that is? Their teams score more runs? The pitchers pitch on days when the wind is blowing in? Maybe they prepare better and maybe they are in better condition? I think Palmer made the comment that a lot of players today do not put enough time into pre-game preparation. He was referring to pitchers and hitters.

Please don't stop supporting him since we may have to trade him when he slips after one of his coming losses and tells everyone he is not extending when his contract is up. It's coming so you might as well be prepared and starting exploring any trade offers that come in on him.

Ace? ......are you kidding? He's 4-4 Guthrie is 3-1 and could easily be 7-1 with a 2.70 ERA to Bedard's 3.72 ERA. Erik is a nice pitcher that keeps things interesting usually for about 5-6 innings and then says he's tired. I predict Guthrie will throw a complete game before Bedard. If the manager would have left him in a little bit longer he would probably have 2 complete games by now. Bedard is not an untouchable.

I really doubt the baseball acumen of anybody who thinks Guthrie, Lowe, Meche, Penny and Lilly are better pitchers than Bedard.

[Frobby]

I like FIP over DIPS simply because it is (1) easier to calculate, and (2) easier to find.

To find DIPS:

1. Go to espn.com

2. Click on MLB stats

3. Click on player pitching

4. Click on sabermetric

That will take you here (though I sorted and filtered): http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?seasonType=2&type=pitch5&sort=DIPSERA&split=0&season=2007&pos=all&hand=a&league=mlb&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&minip=60

Currently, Guthrie is 13th and Bedard is 14th in MLB in DIPS.