Do we really understand our team's strengths and weaknesses?

[crissfan172]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Thanks for doing that, and I'm not too surprised by the outcome for 2016.    Without going to the trouble of doing this for all the teams, I'd be interested to know what the Orioles standard deviation was for each of 2012-15.   We've basically been a low OBP, high HR team during that entire time.  

2012: .5018

2013: .5799

2014: .3266

2015: .9077

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

Thanks for the work on this, but why calendar month?  Wouldn't the results be different if we went from, say, the 12th of one month thru the 11th of the next?  Calendar month is really just as arbitrary, isn't it?

Just guessing at what would make any team better over one 30-day period than another, my inclination would be that factors such as strength of schedule, pitching match-ups, home/away schedule, and injuries (both for that team and their opponents) have a lot more to do with it than anything we can put a finger on statistically. 

 

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The answer is obvious - it's easy to find monthly splits.   To do a more sophisticated analysis would take 100 hours of work and/or require a pretty powerful computer program.    

I think Number5 is right that arbitrarily picking which 30-day period to look at is going to yield different results. I'm not sure how to normalize the data in a way that would make it more accurate. Perhaps multiplying the R/G per month by a SOS factor would do it. Of course, that would require greater coding skills than I possess, and it would be easier if the data was stored in a different way. 

 

To answer your other question, I didn't do a weekly or 10-day analysis because the sample size was going to be too small to be useful. 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

As far as this particular discussion, I'm not so sure that a team with many power hitters is any more prone to "streakiness" than a team built to score in other ways.  In fact, it seems to me that having numerous power guys actually would act to overcome the "streakiness" of each individual.  On a day Trumbo goes 0-4 perhaps Davis and Schoop each hit 2-run homers and the team wins 4-3.  A team built on getting on base and scratching out runs requires more players to not have bad days that a power-laden team, or so it seems to me.  Who knows? 

I agree, we do not appear to be particularly streaky. Aside from one extremely hot month and another decent month, our offense was consistent--that is, consistently in the bad-to-mediocre range. Our runs month-to-month correlated rather strongly with OBP, less than with HR. 

[Frobby]

On 12/17/2016 at 8:28 AM, Frobby said:

Thanks for doing that, and I'm not too surprised by the outcome for 2016.    Without going to the trouble of doing this for all the teams, I'd be interested to know what the Orioles standard deviation was for each of 2012-15.   We've basically been a low OBP, high HR team during that entire time.  

So, I did this:

2012: .563

2013: .529

2014: .334

2015: .824

2016: 1.088

In 2016, the median volatility was around .61.    So, that would suggest (subject to Number5's critique) that the O's offense was slightly more consistent than most teams' in 2012-13, was extremely consistent in 2014, was substantially less consistent than most teams in 2015, and was the most inconsistent team in the majors in 2016.   In that span, the O's have been ranked 11, 10, 11, 12 and 9 in OBP; and 12, 5, 11, 13 and 11 in strikeouts.   To me, at least by this test, there's no solid evidence that a low OBP, high strikeout, HR oriented team is likely to have a more streaky offense than some other type of team.    

 

[sportsfan8703]

Another week goes by and another week that EE is still on the market.  We could fix our biggest position player weaknesses with two signings.  EE and a guy like Pagan.  OBP and OF defense.  I wouldn't have a problem going 2 years with Pagan because that's basically our window anyway.  I'm also starting to like him more over Rasmus because he'd be a better fit offensively and I'm just guessing would be better in the clubhouse.  

Do this and see where we're at come July and maybe this is the year we buy that "Ace" at the deadline.  

[Frobby]

Fact 1:  The Orioles hit 33 more home runs in 2016 than in 2015.

Fact 2:  The Orioles' OBP was 10 points higher in 2016 than in 2015.

Fact 3: The Orioles walked 50 more times in 2016 than in 2015.

Fact 4:  The Orioles scored only 31 more runs in 2016 than in 2015.

You'd think with a higher OBP, 33 extra homers would result in more than 31 extra runs.    But it didn't translate.   The main reasons were (1) 47 fewer PA with runners in scoring position, and (2) lower OPS with RISP (.754 in 2016, .796 in 2015).   Also, while the team actually struck out fewer times in 2016 (1324 to 1331), more of those strikeouts came in RISP situations (294 to 281).

It's interesting to me that's the O's had 47 fewer RISP opportunities in 2016 than in 2015, because they had 15 more doubles and 5 more 2B/3B in 2016 than 2015.

[weams]

Just now, Frobby said:

Fact 1:  The Orioles hit 33 more home runs in 2016 than in 2015.

Fact 2:  The Orioles' OBP was 10 points higher in 2016 than in 2015.

Fact 3: The Orioles walked 50 more times in 2016 than in 2015.

Fact 4:  The Orioles scored only 31 more runs in 2016 than in 2015.

You'd think with a higher OBP, 33 extra homers would result in more than 31 extra runs.    But it didn't translate.   The main reasons were (1) 47 fewer PA with runners in scoring position, and (2) lower OPS with RISP (.754 in 2016, .796 in 2015).   Also, while the team actually struck out fewer times in 2016 (1324 to 1331), more of those strikeouts came in RISP situations (294 to 281).

It's interesting to me that's the O's had 47 fewer RISP opportunities in 2016 than in 2015, because they 

"When I'm hitting and there's nobody on base, I still feel like there's a man in scoring position."

[bobmc]