Trading Manny Machado - Buster Olney Article

[Hallas]

51 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Given how top heavily this organization has been run the last 5 years, I have to think there's a better, more balanced sustainable way to do things. Winning and being organizationally responsible don't have to be mutually exclusive, do they?

I would be shopping both Machado and Britton this offseason to get a feel for possible return possibilities. If they're not traded by Spring Training - re-evaluate at the halfway point. In my humble opinion, two more winning seasons without a World Series, then losing Machado to market for whatever comp-pick it entails would be grossly irresponsible. With the right return, you can be equally competitive in the next two years.

 

I think it's an interesting dilemma.  And I don't claim to know the correct answer.  2 years ago, people were losing their s--t over our non-rebuild, saying that our window would close in 2016.  2016 came, and we made the playoffs, and were possibly a bad managerial decision from playing in the ALDS against a sorry looking Texas squad.  The assumption is that eventually we have to pay that interest payment, but maybe we keep building enough value at the edges to keep us in the playoffs?  It's hard to say.  Frankly DD, his staff, and maybe a few diehard O's fans are the only groups of people that would have predicted these years for us.  But they happened, and it kind of does beg the question "how far do we ride this out?"

There's always the (very legitimate) concern that the farm deficit hits a head and we're in the hole for another 10 years.  But I have no idea if/when that will be.  I get the sense that DD is just waiting for a crappy year to do a sell-off so he can reload at the trade deadline, but that crappy year isn't happening so he just keeps pressing for the upcoming year.

[Can_of_corn]

38 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I think it's an interesting dilemma.  And I don't claim to know the correct answer.  2 years ago, people were losing their s--t over our non-rebuild, saying that our window would close in 2016.  2016 came, and we made the playoffs, and were possibly a bad managerial decision from playing in the ALDS against a sorry looking Texas squad.  The assumption is that eventually we have to pay that interest payment, but maybe we keep building enough value at the edges to keep us in the playoffs?  It's hard to say.  Frankly DD, his staff, and maybe a few diehard O's fans are the only groups of people that would have predicted these years for us.  But they happened, and it kind of does beg the question "how far do we ride this out?"

There's always the (very legitimate) concern that the farm deficit hits a head and we're in the hole for another 10 years.  But I have no idea if/when that will be.  I get the sense that DD is just waiting for a crappy year to do a sell-off so he can reload at the trade deadline, but that crappy year isn't happening so he just keeps pressing for the upcoming year.

I don't get that sense at all.

I get the sense that he wants to win before he leaves when his contract ends and he doesn't much care what the organization looks like when he's out the door.

[scOtt]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't get that sense at all.

I get the sense that he wants to win before he leaves when his contract ends and he doesn't much care what the organization looks like when he's out the door.

What Corn said.

[weams]

16 minutes ago, scOtt said:

What Corn said.

I take the man at his word. He does the best that he can with the resources he has to win every year. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

I take the man at his word. He does the best that he can with the resources he has to win every year. 

Which doesn't contradict what I said.

[weams]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Which doesn't contradict what I said.

Not even close. 

[25 Nuggets]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't get that sense at all.

I get the sense that he wants to win before he leaves when his contract ends and he doesn't much care what the organization looks like when he's out the door.

Ding ding ding

#Rebuild2019

[Number5]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was talking about '99-'12. 

No doubt they had huge advantages in the time period you are discussing.  They used Kansas City as a farm team.

That was the running joke. A bit overblown, though.  It pretty much stemmed from the trade of Roger Maris and two lesser players to the Yankees in the off-season preceding the 1960 season (the first of two consecutive MVP seasons for Maris) for Hank Bauer, Don Larsen, Norm Siebern, and Marv Throneberry.

[markakis8]

12 hours ago, Machado13 said:

Not IMO. They get their chance for 2-3 years when they have cost controlled players and then they have to wait for their next batch of young cores and that takes a while to build back up to.

meanwhile the dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees and other big spenders just outspend the smaller teams to the point where they make the playoffs 8 of 10 years give or take.

1

You literally quoted 3 teams that have won 2 WS in the past 8 years.

12 hours ago, Machado13 said:

 

 

[ExileAngelos]

13 hours ago, Machado13 said:

Summer 2017 might be smart cutoff point. From what we have seen lately in the trade market, it's not a bad idea to trade Britton, Machado and Jones if they know they won't be able to re-sign.

Long-term, MLB is going to have a serious problem. They need to find a way for all teams to compete. This issue where the big markets dominate with a run here or there for smaller markets just isn't good for sport. It seems like manfred's solution is to expand number of playoff spots.

 

God I hope not.  Leave it alone.  You play 162 games to determine who is worthy of making it to the playoffs which is often a crap shoot.  Don't be like the NBA and the NHL.   Huge mistake.

[markakis8]

The point is, if we trade  Manny, we need to get the maximum possible package from that and who is gonna do that besides the Dodgers? Maybe the Astros? No one else has the farm system. I can't see the O's trading him to the Red Sox or Yankees.

Then, if we trade Manny....Britton is completely useless on our team. Trade him now. And we better get the optimum package for him as well. 

We then keep Yovani, Miley, and Ublado to suck up innings and by some miracle if they are good, reap the benefits, but not likely. Either we get a decent prospect or two...and/or a great draft pick.

No one will take Davis, but someone will take AJ...do we dare? I don't think so. He should end his career as an Oriole, leave it up to him.

It's not unreasonable we could have Urias, Bellinger, DeLeon plus Martes, Tucker, and Daz Cameron, plus others. And I would be okay with that. 

[atomic]

14 hours ago, waroriole said:

There just doesn't seem to be anything to talk about related to the O's this offseason. We can discuss a Machado trade, but they're just not going to do it. 

We're running basically the same team out there next year, and hope our luck improves. I can understand taking one more shot this season and trading him next offseason. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening either. I bet we're in the exact same position in 1 year, with the FO taking one more shot. 

Odds are 50/50 that Manny leaves and we get a pick to show for it. 

If keeping Manny for two years is a bad move why would other teams trade us valuable players for him?  

[Ruzious]

50 minutes ago, cimota said:

If keeping Manny for two years is a bad move why would other teams trade us valuable players for him?  

That's a valid question.  The answer is - There are bigger market teams that are willing to spend a lot more than the O's who would be willing to give Machado an extension right away.  So, only big market teams would presumably be in the mix of teams to trade Machado to.  

If the O's aren't above .500 approaching the trade deadline, they almost have to strongly consider trading him - as well as Britton and Adam Jones - by the first deadline, imo.  

[UpstateNYfan]

Is the winning the WS or leaving the organization in a position to compete in the near future a more important legacy for a GM. I suggest that McPhail left a team for DD to build upon and compete. It seems that winning the WS is the end all for some here, even at the risk of entering another Dark Age. I like the idea of obtaining a WS, but it's not like a crown I wear for a year. I enjoy any W about as much as a playoff game. I also believe trading a Manny, Britton or whomever could potentially be more beneficial to the team both in the short and long term. The question for me is the best time to trade these guys, when is the return likely to be the greatest?

[FanSince88]

Two milestones the team needs to hit for us to keep Britton and Manny 

1) In playoff contention by July 2017

2) In the playoffs in October 2017

If we make the playoffs in 2017, I've gotta think we are going to keep Britton and Manny around to make one more run in 2018.  And I wouldn't disagree with that.  

But anything short of the playoffs in 2017 and they should definitely be traded unless there's some weird perfect storm of injuries.  84 wins in 2017 is not enough to make me think they'll be successful again in 2018 when everyone's a year older.