Trading Manny Machado - Buster Olney Article

[joeyc]

21 hours ago, Machado13 said:

Not IMO. They get their chance for 2-3 years when they have cost controlled players and then they have to wait for their next batch of young cores and that takes a while to build back up to.

meanwhile the dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees and other big spenders just outspend the smaller teams to the point where they make the playoffs 8 of 10 years give or take.

the Yankees "down year" is them losing to the Astros in a wild card game. The Astros "great year" is beating the Yankees in a wild card game and waiting for next chance. Yes, they spent more this offseason but generally the small to mid markets get a small run here or there while the big markets like ones I mentioned spend their way to the playoffs.

the cardinals are the only "mid market" to sustain success over long term but they also have high payroll most years too.

mlb has a problem. I know the union is so strong that they won't go to a salary cap but I see issues in the future. The luxury tax and revenue sharing stuff is not the long-term answer IMO.

This is 100% accurate. That is why the small market teams only get spar-attic chances at the playoffs but the big market teams are in it every year, practically

[Bradysburns]

I'm intrigued by the possibiility of trading Britton and Manny. But I'm not terribly intrigued by the idea of DD making the trade. He seems better at marginal acquisitions - minor deals, etc. However, he is the man who traded for Pedro Martinez, and who got Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for... Heathcliff Slocumb. So maybe he could do something magical.

But what kind of package(s) could we see in return? We're talking about trading arguably the best closer and best third baseman n baseball... with multiple years of service left on their current contracts. We should get an absolute bounty, which could make us a stronger team in 2018 than if we kept these two players.

[pastorfan]

21 hours ago, esmd said:

If we're not in contention this July (and by in contention I mean 8-10 games over .500 and either holding down a playoff spot or being just outside of one), then I think they have to consider trading Jones, Manny, and Britton.  If they don't win a WS this year (which seems highly unlikely), I think they have to absolutely move them during the offseason before next season.  Can't go into their walk years, IMO, it will diminish their value.

I agree, but the only way this happens is if the owner surmises the situation and realizes that having so many star player's contracts up the same year as the manager and GM's contracts is not a good idea and he makes a decision to either extend them to oversee a rebuild or go in another direction. Nothing in my years of watching Angelos tells me that he is wise enough to handle the situation.

[Number5]

1 hour ago, pastorfan said:

I agree, but the only way this happens is if the owner surmises the situation and realizes that having so many star player's contracts up the same year as the manager and GM's contracts is not a good idea and he makes a decision to either extend them to oversee a rebuild or go in another direction. Nothing in my years of watching Angelos tells me that he is wise enough to handle the situation.

It would be unwise to think Peter Angelos isn't a sharp guy, IMO.  Perhaps the Angelos family is contemplating a possible sale of the team after the 2018 season, and having few contract obligations on the books at that time would increase the net.  Did you consider that possibility?

[Rene88]

9 hours ago, Number5 said:

It would be unwise to think Peter Angelos isn't a sharp guy, IMO.  Perhaps the Angelos family is contemplating a possible sale of the team after the 2018 season, and having few contract obligations on the books at that time would increase the net.  Did you consider that possibility?

Ummm...that's certainly interesting. Know something? Sounds like you might:)

[FlipTheBird]

22 hours ago, Bradysburns said:

I'm intrigued by the possibiility of trading Britton and Manny. But I'm not terribly intrigued by the idea of DD making the trade. He seems better at marginal acquisitions - minor deals, etc. However, he is the man who traded for Pedro Martinez, and who got Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for... Heathcliff Slocumb. So maybe he could do something magical.

But what kind of package(s) could we see in return? We're talking about trading arguably the best closer and best third baseman n baseball... with multiple years of service left on their current contracts. We should get an absolute bounty, which could make us a stronger team in 2018 than if we kept these two players.

I think DD could manage both trades just fine, if the time came. Though a lot of O's fans will forever be hung up on the Arrieta/Feldman thing, the guy has executed some excellent moves in his career, too. More so, I'd say, than ones that went the other way.

The biggest problem with trading a Manny Machado is that I honestly don't know if there's a "fair" package out there. Machado is that good and that young, an impossibly rare combination. What would be fair value for this guy in a trade? It's so hard to even begin to compute. And, given that it'd probably be prospect-laden, it'd be a gamble.

The most recent example of a Machado-esque player being traded in his mid-20s was Miguel Cabrera being dealt just before his age-25 (2007/2008 offseason) season by the Marlins, who knew they'd never be able to afford him. In return they got Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Eulogio De La Cruz, Dallas Trahern and Burke Badenhop.

A disaster for the Marlins. Maybin just really had his first particularly useful year in 2016... for the Tigers. Andrew Miller didn't become the lights out reliever he is today until 2013... for the Red Sox. Badenhop is a middle of the road relief pitcher. De La Cruz threw 32 MLB innings before falling out of baseball. Trahern never made it.

Point being, it's a massive gamble.

[Redskins Rick]

21 hours ago, Number5 said:

It would be unwise to think Peter Angelos isn't a sharp guy, IMO.  Perhaps the Angelos family is contemplating a possible sale of the team after the 2018 season, and having few contract obligations on the books at that time would increase the net.  Did you consider that possibility?

Everything I read is, the Sons are being groomed for ownership after Dad is no longer around.

I do agree, say what you want about PAG, he is a very smart guy.

[FanSince88]

9 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

I think DD could manage both trades just fine, if the time came. Though a lot of O's fans will forever be hung up on the Arrieta/Feldman thing, the guy has executed some excellent moves in his career, too. More so, I'd say, than ones that went the other way.

The biggest problem with trading a Manny Machado is that I honestly don't know if there's a "fair" package out there. Machado is that good and that young, an impossibly rare combination. What would be fair value for this guy in a trade? It's so hard to even begin to compute. And, given that it'd probably be prospect-laden, it'd be a gamble.

The most recent example of a Machado-esque player being traded in his mid-20s was Miguel Cabrera being dealt just before his age-25 (2007/2008 offseason) season by the Marlins, who knew they'd never be able to afford him. In return they got Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Eulogio De La Cruz, Dallas Trahern and Burke Badenhop.

A disaster for the Marlins. Maybin just really had his first particularly useful year in 2016... for the Tigers. Andrew Miller didn't become the lights out reliever he is today until 2013... for the Red Sox. Badenhop is a middle of the road relief pitcher. De La Cruz threw 32 MLB innings before falling out of baseball. Trahern never made it.

Point being, it's a massive gamble.

It isn't about fairness, though.  It's about whether you can get more value in a trade than you would in a comp pick.  And I think the answer is a definitive yes.  If this team can't contend in 2017, then they'll be doubtful to contend in 2018, and you might as well try to maximize the return from Manny and Britton next winter before they become free agents. 

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

It isn't about fairness, though.  It's about whether you can get more value in a trade than you would in a comp pick.  And I think the answer is a definitive yes.  If this team can't contend in 2017, then they'll be doubtful to contend in 2018, and you might as well try to maximize the return from Manny and Britton next winter before they become free agents. 

Of course you get more value in a trade than you get in a comp pick.    I don't think that's the issue at all.   The issue is whether you think you are in the running for the playoffs in 2017-18.   If you think the answer is yes, then you have a tough decision about trading a great player now who may help you to make a couple of playoff runs for some pieces that may help in the future.    If you think the answer is no, then the decision isn't difficult -- you make the trade without blinking.

[Bradysburns]

1 hour ago, FlipTheBird said:

I think DD could manage both trades just fine, if the time came. Though a lot of O's fans will forever be hung up on the Arrieta/Feldman thing, the guy has executed some excellent moves in his career, too. More so, I'd say, than ones that went the other way.

The biggest problem with trading a Manny Machado is that I honestly don't know if there's a "fair" package out there. Machado is that good and that young, an impossibly rare combination. What would be fair value for this guy in a trade? It's so hard to even begin to compute. And, given that it'd probably be prospect-laden, it'd be a gamble.

The most recent example of a Machado-esque player being traded in his mid-20s was Miguel Cabrera being dealt just before his age-25 (2007/2008 offseason) season by the Marlins, who knew they'd never be able to afford him. In return they got Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Eulogio De La Cruz, Dallas Trahern and Burke Badenhop.

A disaster for the Marlins. Maybin just really had his first particularly useful year in 2016... for the Tigers. Andrew Miller didn't become the lights out reliever he is today until 2013... for the Red Sox. Badenhop is a middle of the road relief pitcher. De La Cruz threw 32 MLB innings before falling out of baseball. Trahern never made it.

Point being, it's a massive gamble.

Thanks for the history on the Cabrera trade - scary bad for the Marlins. I think a trade for Manny should include at least one MLB-ready prospect, and two more A-level prospects. Not even sure who has that in their cupboard. But like people are saying, if we have no shot at resigning him (to a contract that wouldn't ruin our franchise)... we should trade him. Whether we do it at the trade deadline, or whenever the leverage is best for us... I don't have an opinion.

I would love to see us keep the train going here with some fresh, high-level prospects.

If you also traded Britton for a massive haul... we could reboot the organization for the next 10 years with two trades.

As you point out, though, all trades come with risk. So hopefully Dan would have his mojo working.

[TradeAngelos]

2 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

I think DD could manage both trades just fine, if the time came. Though a lot of O's fans will forever be hung up on the Arrieta/Feldman thing, the guy has executed some excellent moves in his career, too. More so, I'd say, than ones that went the other way.

The biggest problem with trading a Manny Machado is that I honestly don't know if there's a "fair" package out there. Machado is that good and that young, an impossibly rare combination. What would be fair value for this guy in a trade? It's so hard to even begin to compute. And, given that it'd probably be prospect-laden, it'd be a gamble.

The most recent example of a Machado-esque player being traded in his mid-20s was Miguel Cabrera being dealt just before his age-25 (2007/2008 offseason) season by the Marlins, who knew they'd never be able to afford him. In return they got Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Eulogio De La Cruz, Dallas Trahern and Burke Badenhop.

A disaster for the Marlins. Maybin just really had his first particularly useful year in 2016... for the Tigers. Andrew Miller didn't become the lights out reliever he is today until 2013... for the Red Sox. Badenhop is a middle of the road relief pitcher. De La Cruz threw 32 MLB innings before falling out of baseball. Trahern never made it.

Point being, it's a massive gamble.

There is no "fair package" for a 24 year old, 6-8 (maybe 10 if he really puts it all together) almost sure fire HOF'er. 

A massive gamble might be the understatement of the year, as trying to get back "fair value" over course of time would be akin to winning the powerball twice in a year. You are going to lose, and lose big 99.9% of the time.

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

Everything I read is, the Sons are being groomed for ownership after Dad is no longer around.

I do agree, say what you want about PAG, he is a very smart guy.

I hope that man wants to win a WS in his lifetime.  He's spending now and really spent in the late 90's.  Edwin Encarncion would hit 50 in OPACY, boost attendance, weaken TOR, and scare the hell outta BOS's 4 LHP's.  

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

I hope that man wants to win a WS in his lifetime.  He's spending now and really spend in the late 90's.  Edwin Encarncion would hit 50 in OPACY, boost attendance, weaken TOR, and scare the hell outta BOS's 4 LHP's.  

Of course he wants to win a WS, he isn't owning the team to make money, if they was, the payroll wouldn't be where it is now.

Not sure, if there is payroll room left to fit EE contract into the equation.

 

 

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

There is no "fair package" for a 24 year old, 6-8 (maybe 10 if he really puts it all together) almost sure fire HOF'er. 

A massive gamble might be the understatement of the year, as trying to get back "fair value" over course of time would be akin to winning the powerball twice in a year. You are going to lose, and lose big 99.9% of the time.

You seem to be assuming Manny would sign with us long term if he isn't traded.    If you don't assume that, then it becomes much more plausible that you could engineer a trade that would generate more value in the long term than Manny can generate in two seasons.  

[TradeAngelos]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You seem to be assuming Manny would sign with us long term if he isn't traded.    If you don't assume that, then it becomes much more plausible that you could engineer a trade that would generate more value in the long term than Manny can generate in two seasons.  

You assume that if the Orioles put a fair market offer on the table that starts with a 3, he won't sign with us. That is completely baseless message board driven speculation that has no bearing reality. In my opinion.