Trading Manny Machado - Buster Olney Article

[wildbillhiccup]

2 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

I think DD could manage both trades just fine, if the time came. Though a lot of O's fans will forever be hung up on the Arrieta/Feldman thing, the guy has executed some excellent moves in his career, too. More so, I'd say, than ones that went the other way.

The biggest problem with trading a Manny Machado is that I honestly don't know if there's a "fair" package out there. Machado is that good and that young, an impossibly rare combination. What would be fair value for this guy in a trade? It's so hard to even begin to compute. And, given that it'd probably be prospect-laden, it'd be a gamble.

The most recent example of a Machado-esque player being traded in his mid-20s was Miguel Cabrera being dealt just before his age-25 (2007/2008 offseason) season by the Marlins, who knew they'd never be able to afford him. In return they got Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Eulogio De La Cruz, Dallas Trahern and Burke Badenhop.

A disaster for the Marlins. Maybin just really had his first particularly useful year in 2016... for the Tigers. Andrew Miller didn't become the lights out reliever he is today until 2013... for the Red Sox. Badenhop is a middle of the road relief pitcher. De La Cruz threw 32 MLB innings before falling out of baseball. Trahern never made it.

Point being, it's a massive gamble.

Is it a bigger a gamble then getting nothing in return? Because that's how this is going to play out if we don't trade him. Machado is not resigning. It's a pipe dream. He's going to the highest bidder. 

[TradeAngelos]

39 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Is it a bigger a gamble then getting nothing in return? Because that's how this is going to play out if we don't trade him. Machado is not resigning. It's a pipe dream. He's going to the highest bidder. 

You couldn't possibly have anything less to back this statement up. 

[Justinlstn]

I understand people don't want to go back to losing after 14 years of it but I rather start building a better long term team now and start building the nucleus with Buck's expertise then wait until next off season. I remember we waited too long to trade Tejada and do not want to risk Machado/Britton having the same or more value next off season. Call me being negative but anything can happen. They both have tremendous value now.

[FlipTheBird]

54 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Is it a bigger a gamble then getting nothing in return? Because that's how this is going to play out if we don't trade him. Machado is not resigning. It's a pipe dream. He's going to the highest bidder. 

If that's the case, which no one knows right now, then yes, you'd have to trade him at some point. But we don't know that he's completely out on the idea of signing long term with the O's before becoming a FA.

The safest bet is to sign Manny Machado to a longterm deal and not look back. Because I'd say the odds of getting better longterm value in a trade package is probably close to 100/1. Machado is that good. But, if come next offseason resigning him seems dire... May as well play for that 1/100 hit.

[FlipTheBird]

1 hour ago, Bradysburns said:

Thanks for the history on the Cabrera trade - scary bad for the Marlins. I think a trade for Manny should include at least one MLB-ready prospect, and two more A-level prospects. Not even sure who has that in their cupboard. But like people are saying, if we have no shot at resigning him (to a contract that wouldn't ruin our franchise)... we should trade him. Whether we do it at the trade deadline, or whenever the leverage is best for us... I don't have an opinion.

I would love to see us keep the train going here with some fresh, high-level prospects.

If you also traded Britton for a massive haul... we could reboot the organization for the next 10 years with two trades.

As you point out, though, all trades come with risk. So hopefully Dan would have his mojo working.

It's certainly possible to hit on a prospect trade. Occasionally you do strike gold and get an Adam Jones and Chris Tillman both in the same deal. Like you said, though, I honestly don't know if there's a team out there that has the farm system to make a fair offer for Machado.

Just for fun, I went back and dug up an old 2007 report on the Tigers' top prospects. So around the time they cut the deal with Florida.

No. 1 - Cameron Maybin

No. 2 - Andrew Miller

No. 3 - Eulogio De La Cruz

No. 10 - Dallas Trahern

Honorable Mentions - Burke Badenhop

So Detroit honestly did give Florida four of its best, including its top three overall (based on the resource I used, anyway) and then a fringe prospect in Badenhop. And the Marlins got essentially nothing out of the lot of them.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, FlipTheBird said:

It's certainly possible to hit on a prospect trade. Occasionally you do strike gold and get an Adam Jones and Chris Tillman both in the same deal. Like you said, though, I honestly don't know if there's a team out there that has the farm system to make a fair offer for Machado.

Just for fun, I went back and dug up an old 2007 report on the Tigers' top prospects. So around the time they cut the deal with Florida.

No. 1 - Cameron Maybin

No. 2 - Andrew Miller

No. 3 - Eulogio De La Cruz

No. 10 - Dallas Trahern

Honorable Mentions - Burke Badenhop

So Detroit honestly did give Florida four of its best, including its top three overall (based on the resource I used, anyway) and then a fringe prospect in Badenhop. And the Marlins got essentially nothing out of the lot of them.

And so much for those that thought the Orioles had the only failed prospects in the MIL.

Even blue chip prospects are not assured of a big league career in the majors.

 

[FlipTheBird]

4 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

It's certainly possible to hit on a prospect trade. Occasionally you do strike gold and get an Adam Jones and Chris Tillman both in the same deal. Like you said, though, I honestly don't know if there's a team out there that has the farm system to make a fair offer for Machado.

Just for fun, I went back and dug up an old 2007 report on the Tigers' top prospects. So around the time they cut the deal with Florida.

No. 1 - Cameron Maybin

No. 2 - Andrew Miller

No. 3 - Eulogio De La Cruz

No. 10 - Dallas Trahern

Honorable Mentions - Burke Badenhop

So Detroit honestly did give Florida four of its best, including its top three overall (based on the resource I used, anyway) and then a fringe prospect in Badenhop. And the Marlins got essentially nothing out of the lot of them.

Update:

According to an archived Baseball America post, Maybin was No. 6 overall among all MLB prospects going into 2007, and Miller was 10. So two of the Top 10 in the whole game.

[FlipTheBird]

1 minute ago, Redskins Rick said:

And so much for those that thought the Orioles had the only failed prospects in the MIL.

Even blue chip prospects are not assured of a big league career in the majors.

 

Precisely. And it's all the more convoluted nowadays, when players get bumped to the tippy top of prospect lists when they're 19-year-old and in Low-A.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, TradeAngelos said:

You assume that if the Orioles put a fair market offer on the table that starts with a 3, he won't sign with us. That is completely baseless message board driven speculation that has no bearing reality. In my opinion. 

I'm not assuming that.   But I think the O's need to find out sooner rather than later.   

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, TradeAngelos said:

You couldn't possibly have anything less to back this statement up. 

You completely missed the point. The Orioles will do their due diligence. If they don't think they can sign him (which I firmly believe) then they absolutely have to trade him or they get nothing in return. That should not be an option. 

If they can't lock him up this season or at the latest during the offseason then he absolutely needs to be traded. And if the prospects don't pan out then so what. At least they got something in return for him. 

The only way to be competitive in a market/system like this where you have a a few teams with deep pockets and the rest with limited funds is to either throw money at the situation or make bold moves...like trading your star player before you lose him to free agency. 

[wildbillhiccup]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'm not assuming that.   But I think the O's need to find out sooner rather than later.   

I agree with Frobby. it's clear they've already had some preliminary discussions. And I'm pretty confident the Os already have a pretty good idea of what their chances of signing Machado really are. You absolutely can't let him walk into free agency unsigned. It's not worth the risk. 

[El Gordo]

The only chance they trade Manny is if they are out of it at the deadline in 2018. Otherwise forget it.

[Bradysburns]

3 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

Update:

According to an archived Baseball America post, Maybin was No. 6 overall among all MLB prospects going into 2007, and Miller was 10. So two of the Top 10 in the whole game.

This is a great find. It narrows it down to teams that have two top-10 prospects and a third who's an organizational top 10. Not sure if anyone even has a farm team that good! Might have to wing a multi-team deal here.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Bradysburns said:

This is a great find. It narrows it down to teams that have two top-10 prospects and a third who's an organizational top 10. Not sure if anyone even has a farm team that good! Might have to wing a multi-team deal here.

White Sox.

Yankees?

[Yardball85]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

White Sox.

Yankees?

Definitely. Though of course the Sox are rebuilding and wouldn't trade the guys they just got.

With the Yankees  - think they would do something like Manny for Torres, Frazier/Judge, and Sheffield? Maye get back Headley (ugh) or Didi so the Yanks can plug Manny in right away? 

Would you make that trade if you were the O's? I think I might.