An inconvenient truth

[ArtVanDelay]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 

If the O's do not trade Hader for Bud Norris they may not have gone to the playoff in 2014 when Bud went 15-8.

 

Wat.

We won the division by 12 games.  I think we would have been fine without Norris' 1.4 WAR season.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Wat.

We won the division by 12 games.  I think we would have been fine without Norris' 1.4 WAR season.

Sorry, Not buying it.  Bud started 28 games, pitched 165 innings and won 15 games.  Who pitches those games if he doesn't and what stress does it put of the other starters, the pen and the rest of the team.   Bud was a needed part of winning that year.   

And Dan gave up two minor leaguers to get Bud.   

[ArtVanDelay]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sorry, Not buying it.  Bud started 28 games, pitched 165 innings and won 15 games.  Who pitches those games if he doesn't and what stress does it put of the other starters, the pen and the rest of the team.   Bud was a needed part of winning that year.   

And Dan gave up two minor leaguers to get Bud.   

Give Sidney Ponson 20 starts and we still probably win the division.

One of those minor leaguers was Josh Hader.  And he also gave up a draft pick that turned out to be this guy:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=fisher001der

It was a horrible trade.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Give Sidney Ponson 20 starts and we still probably win the division.

One of those minor leaguers was Josh Hader.  And he also gave up a draft pick that turned out to be this guy:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=fisher001der

It was a horrible trade.

IMO very poor analysis.   The O's probably don't win the division without Norris that year.  If a team wants to win now sometimes they have to give  up a 19th round draft choice like Hader.   They didn't give up Gausman or Bundy,  they gave up a 19th rounder who was pitching in the Sally league at the time.  They won the division and Norris won a game in the playoffs vs the Tigers.  The O's hadn't won the ACDS since 1997.   That's 16 years without getting that far in the playoffs.  

The goals is to win and the O's won with Norris.  Its an unknown if Hader will ever get that far.  

[PaulFolk]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

IMO very poor analysis.   The O's probably don't win the division without Norris that year.    

What's the analysis that leads to Bud Norris being single-handedly responsible for a 12-game margin of victory in the AL East? By that logic he should've been the AL MVP that season.

[scOtt]

2 hours ago, weams said:

Manny is a star. I would like to see him for two more seasons. 

Two more, ten more, it's all good.

[TradeAngelos]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

This is a really tired argument.

If the O's do not trade Hader for Bud Norris they may not have gone to the playoff in 2014 when Bud went 15-8.

If the O's don't trade for ERod  for Miller they may not have won enough games to win the division  and beat the Tigers in the division series,

And  so what if they traded 26th round draft choice, 155 pound  Davies.   They kept 1st rounder Gausman and Bundy. 3rd round Wright who went 9-1 with a 2.22 ERA  at AAA that year, and 10th rounder  Wilson.   GM don't get the benefit of hindsight.

In 1983 the O's acquired  Todd  Cruz to play 3rd base on June 30th after rookie Leo Hernandez, Aurelio  Rodriguez and Glenn Guliver could not handle the position.  So acquirig players to fill hole in mid season  is not a Duquette invention.

GMs want to win.  Fans want to win.  So  when  Dan does what it  takes  to win more games than  anyone else over the last 5 years,  it doesn't seem right to complain about who he traded to accomplish the teams success.   Its a heck of  a lot better than 14 losing seasons.

Sorry for getting on my soap box, but that argument really gets to me because  it is often  is said  without  the context of what this team has achieved,

 

Maybe one of the greatest posts I have ever read here.

[FanSince88]

3 hours ago, RayC said:

I agree with most of this analysis. Trading Manny at the right time is critical, because we really need to identify the MLB ready players and prospects that we want to obtain in the deal.

Same thing goes for Jones / Britton.

I don't buy this talk (on the radio) that not signing Manny to a long term contract is a recognition that the organization is not committed to excellence. Signing Manny to a 10 year $300-$400 million contract will put us in a similar position as the Ravens with Flacco's contract and the salary cap problems.

Yup, the whole town is moaning about Flacco's contract these days.  But some of the same folks who complain about Flacco's contract are huffing and puffing about how we MUST sign Manny TODAY no matter what the cost.  

[wildcard]

57 minutes ago, PaulFolk said:

What's the analysis that leads to Bud Norris being single-handedly responsible for a 12-game margin of victory in the AL East? By that logic he should've been the AL MVP that season.

OK, here you go.

Norris pitched 9 games vs the Yankees and the Jays.  He won 8 with one no decision.  He pitched 7 shut out inning in the no decision  game and the O's  won it.   So Norris  really contributed to 9 wins vs the Yankees and Jays.

The O's won 96 games in 2014.   Subtract Bud 9 and now the O's are at 87.   The Yankees won 84,  But none  of the games against the O's.   What if whoever pitched them lost  to  the Yankees.   Then the Yankees win 89.   

Bud started  28 games and eat up 165 innings.  What if  the pitching staff had to absorb those innings.   Its  hard to say what would happen but because Bud  was  so successful that year it might have  been close without him.  Maybe too close.

[FanSince88]

1 hour ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Give Sidney Ponson 20 starts and we still probably win the division.

One of those minor leaguers was Josh Hader.  And he also gave up a draft pick that turned out to be this guy:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=fisher001der

It was a horrible trade.

I'm not sure if I believe either extreme being argued here.  I think Norris was a good, productive piece in 2014.  We might have been able to win the division without him, but it probably would have been closer.  The intangibles of the stability he gave the team as a starter in 14 are hard to quantify.  It's also worth mentioning that he pitched well in Game 3 of the ALDS which we won by one run on  the road.  If we don't win that game, who knows?  The powerful detroit lineup could have easily heated up and they could have blown us away in games 4 and 5.  Maybe not likely, but possible.  

[Babypowder]

Which season was better: Bud Norris in 2014 or Pedro in 1999?

Bud being worth like 12 WAR that year and all.

[crissfan172]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

OK, here you go.

Norris pitched 9 games vs the Yankees and the Jays.  He won 8 with one no decision.  He pitched 7 shut out inning in the no decision  game and the O's  won it.   So Norris  really contributed to 9 wins vs the Yankees and Jays.

The O's won 96 games in 2014.   Subtract Bud 9 and now the O's are at 87.   The Yankees won 84,  But none  of the games against the O's.   What if whoever pitched them lost  to  the Yankees.   Then the Yankees win 89.   

Bud started  28 games and eat up 165 innings.  What if  the pitching staff had to absorb those innings.   Its  hard to say what would happen but because Bud  was  so successful that year it might have  been close without him.  Maybe too close.

This is assuming that Norris' replacement would lose all the games that Bud won? That seems highly unlikely. 

 

That being said, I don't believe WAR is necessarily an accurate description of its name. That is, I don't think the stat describes the number of wins that a player was actually responsible for in comparison to a "replacement player" in a given year, but rather the expected number of wins that a player with his stats is likely to have produced. So...in theory you could be correct that Norris' presence on the team was the reason they won the division, but there's not much in the way of evidence to support that claim. 

[weams]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

OK, here you go.

Norris pitched 9 games vs the Yankees and the Jays.  He won 8 with one no decision.  He pitched 7 shut out inning in the no decision  game and the O's  won it.   So Norris  really contributed to 9 wins vs the Yankees and Jays.

The O's won 96 games in 2014.   Subtract Bud 9 and now the O's are at 87.   The Yankees won 84,  But none  of the games against the O's.   What if whoever pitched them lost  to  the Yankees.   Then the Yankees win 89.   

Bud started  28 games and eat up 165 innings.  What if  the pitching staff had to absorb those innings.   Its  hard to say what would happen but because Bud  was  so successful that year it might have  been close without him.  Maybe too close.

He pitched brilliantly in Detroit. Brilliantly. That game was important. He made the Cruz home run stand up. The Cheap one. 

[Justinlstn]

I feel this thread has been derailed. Under current ownership the Orioles are not comfortable giving any single player a 10 year deal or 30 million dollars. Big difference between the contract that Davis got, to the contract that Manny is looking at.

[clapdiddy]

I've said it before,  but it's worth re-stating.   We could trade Manny and Britton now, and done properly, still compete for the playoffs this season.  The key is the "done properly" part.

I think it should be done, as we're not going to have the resources to sign them long-term.  We're not going to do it, though.