Friday at noon is the deadline to exchange arbitration figures

[atomic]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Roch lets me down again.

700K does make it a harder case to win.

Not a chance of him winning.  Do you think there is some other player with a .413 OPS he can compare himself to that is not a pitcher?  

[atomic]

3 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Brach has a decent shot at breaking Smouse's streak.

Yeah I think they should just settle with Brach. 

[PaulFolk]

11 minutes ago, cimota said:

Not a chance of him winning.  Do you think there is some other player with a .413 OPS he can compare himself to that is not a pitcher?  

Arbitration is not based solely on one year. He had a pretty decent season in 2015 and to a lesser extent 2014.

[scOtt]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

None of these look like cases that need to be arbitrated.

I'm late and a page behind but yes! These are trivial differences. Brach the farthest apart at a half mill. I hope these "file or trial" tweets were a smoke screen or something. If they hold firm on these last three it really boggles my mind on what DD is thinking.

[scOtt]

If you add up the difference of what the O's filed for these three players and the midpoint of their bids was, it's less than a million dollars total. DD would have to be Ebeneezer Scrooge to stick to it.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, scOtt said:

If you add up the difference of what the O's filed for these three players and the midpoint of their bids was, it's less than a million dollars total. DD would have to be Ebeneezer Scrooge to stick to it.

It's like $600 k.    But if you believe Duquette, it's more about principle than money.    We'll see how it plays out.    The good news is, the differences are small enough where I doubt the players involved will have a big chip on their shoulder if they lose.   

[mdbdotcom]

6 hours ago, scOtt said:

I'm late and a page behind but yes! These are trivial differences. Brach the farthest apart at a half mill. I hope these "file or trial" tweets were a smoke screen or something. If they hold firm on these last three it really boggles my mind on what DD is thinking.

I read a quote from Duquette somewhere in which he said that negotiating these deals takes too much time away from building the team, so he'd rather just turn it over to Smouse and be done with it. Of course, what he says and what he really thinks could be two very different things.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I read a quote from Duquette somewhere in which he said that negotiating these deals takes too much time away from building the team, so he'd rather just turn it over to Smouse and be done with it. Of course, what he says and what he really thinks could be two very different things.

i think the bolded is really the case, once you're down to 3 players and $1.2 mm.    But negotiating with 9 guys probably is a pretty big time suck, which is why he pressured the players to get it  over with, and he may feel he needs to follow through with the "file and go" threat to have credibility in future negotiations with arbitration-eligible players.    

 

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, bpilktree said:

I am little surprised on the Gausman offer and what he asked for both are under the expected amount.  I figured he would ask for 4 and O's would offer 3.5

Here are some other first-time eligible pitchers who settled their cases (service time in parentheses):

deGrom $4.05 mm (2.139)

G. Cole $3.75 mm (3.111)

S. Gray $3.575 mm (3.061)

D. Salazar $3.4 mm (2.162)

K. Gibson $2.9 mm (3.056)

A. Wood $2.8 mm (3.123)

 

Gausman has 2.151 years of service time.    I'd say Salazar is the best comp.    Gausman was slightly better in 2016 (179 IP, 123 ERA+ vs. 137 IP, 121 ERA+), but Salazar has had the slightly better career so far (484 IP, 115 ERA+ vs. 453 IP, 106 ERA+).   Cole and Gray both had down years in 2016 but have done significantly more than Gausman in their careers and they have a full three years of service time.   deGrom is a Super-2 like Gausman and Salazar but has established himself as one of baseball's top pitchers.    Gibson's more senior but far inferior.    Wood's kind of an anomoly here, getting penalized for having missed more than half of 2016 with an injury.

Seems to me the arbitration could go either way, but I'm not betting against Smouse.    I'd still like to see it settle in the middle; based on the comps above, I think that would be the right result.   

[Babypowder]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

I look at it this way: Schoop is getting $3.475 mm.   He's been our starting 2B for three years.    Gausman was more valuable in 2016 but his full body of work has been less impactful to date, plus he's a Super 2 while Schoop has 3 years of service time.   I'm not surprised the O's want to pay Gausman a bit less.  

By what measure has Gausman been less impactful? By fWAR Gausman has been more than twice as valuable. Even by rWAR Gausman has been quite a bit more valuable.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

By what measure has Gausman been less impactful? By fWAR Gausman has been more than twice as valuable. Even by rWAR Gausman has been quite a bit more valuable.

I'm not going to get into a detailed discussion, since I think the long post I just did about pitcher comps is a better way to evaluate what Gausman should earn.  

[Babypowder]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'm not going to get into a detailed discussion, since I think the long post I just did about pitcher comps is a better way to evaluate what Gausman should earn.  

Yes, I agree on what Gausman should earn and have no problem with that. That's a separate issue from saying Schoop has had more impact as a player.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

Yes, I agree on what Gausman should earn and have no problem with that. That's a separate issue from saying Schoop has had more impact as a player.

I meant it in this sense: Schoop has been a full-time starter for three years, apart from the time he missed with an injury in 2015.    Gausman never established himself as a full-time member of the rotation until last season (we all have views on why that was, but in any event his impact was limited).    

[weams]

19 hours ago, scOtt said:

I'm late and a page behind but yes! These are trivial differences. Brach the farthest apart at a half mill. I hope these "file or trial" tweets were a smoke screen or something. If they hold firm on these last three it really boggles my mind on what DD is thinking.

If it is smoke screen then don't try saying it next off season. Or signing Manny. Trial.