Tillman's Market Value

[Bahama O's Fan]

If he doesn't sign an extension, what do you believe is his market value? Which teams would be interested? How is the starting pitching market that year?

[Frobby]

Obviously a lot depends on what kind of year Tillman has and whether he's healthy.   However, if he has a healthy season I think his floor is around 5/$70 mm.   If he has a good year, 5/$90 mm, maybe a little more.   I don't think he'd get 6 years even if he had his best season.  

[Bahama O's Fan]

I guess I was supposing he basic continued with his career numbers. It seems as though the price of pitching is through the roof lately.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Here is the list of potential FA starting pitchers with Tillman. What will this do to the market?

Jake Arrieta (32)
Clay Buchholz (33)
Madison Bumgarner (28) — $12MM club option with a $1.5M buyout
Matt Cain (33) — $21MM club option with a $7.5MM buyout
Andrew Cashner (31)
Jhoulys Chacin (30)
Tyler Chatwood (28)
Jesse Chavez (34)
Wei-Yin Chen (32) — Can opt out of the remaining three years, $52MM on his contract
Alex Cobb (30)
Bartolo Colon (45)
Johnny Cueto (32) — Can opt out of the remaining four years, $84MM on his contract
Yu Darvish (31)
John Danks (33)
R.A. Dickey (43) – $8MM club option with $500K buyout
Danny Duffy (29)
Nathan Eovaldi (28)
Marco Estrada (34)
Yovani Gallardo (32) — $13MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Jaime Garcia (31)
Matt Garza (34) — $13MM vesting option/$5MM club option (can become $1MM club option based on DL time)
Gio Gonzalez (32) – $12MM club option, vests with 180 innings pitched in 2017
Miguel Gonzalez (34)
Jeremy Hellickson (31)
Derek Holland (31)
Ubaldo Jimenez (34)
Ian Kennedy (33) — Can opt out of the remaining three years, $43MM on his contract
John Lackey (39)
Francisco Liriano (34)
Jordan Lyles (27)
Lance Lynn (31)
Wade Miley (31) — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout
Mike Minor (30) — $10MM mutual option with a $1.25MM buyout
Matt Moore (29) — $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Ricky Nolasco (35) — $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Martin Perez (27) — $6MM club option with a $2.45MM buyout
Michael Pineda (29)
Clayton Richard (34)
Tyson Ross (31)
CC Sabathia (37)
Anibal Sanchez (34) — $16MM club option with a $5MM buyout
Hector Santiago (30)
Chris Sale (29) — $12.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Masahiro Tanaka (29) — Can opt out of the remaining three years, $67MM on his contract
Chris Tillman (30)
Josh Tomlin (33) — $3MM club option with a $750K buyout
Jason Vargas (35)
Chris Young (39) — $8MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout

[Frobby]

Just now, Bahama O's Fan said:

I guess I was supposing he basic continued with his career numbers. It seems as though the price of pitching is through the roof lately.

For example, Jeff Samardzija got 5/$90 mm last year.    To that point in his career, Samardzija had thrown 991 innings to a 96 ERA+, and he was coming off a pretty poor season where he'd pitched to a 4.96 ERA.    Tillman's already thrown 1025 innings in his career to a 101 ERA+ (108 since he joined the rotation full-time in mid-2012).   If he has a solid season, why wouldn't he be in that ballpark?    Samardzija strikes out more guys, but Tillman has a more consistent track record.   

[Bahama O's Fan]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

For example, Jeff Samardzija got 5/$90 mm last year.    To that point in his career, Samardzija had thrown 991 innings to a 96 ERA+, and he was coming off a pretty poor season where he'd pitched to a 4.96 ERA.    Tillman's already thrown 1025 innings in his career to a 101 ERA+ (108 since he joined the rotation full-time in mid-2012).   If he has a solid season, why wouldn't he be in that ballpark?    Samardzija strikes out more guys, but Tillman has a more consistent track record.   

I was thinking Tillman would be more than Samardzija

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I was thinking Tillman would be more than Samardzija

Hard to say.   FIP/fWAR likes Samardzija a little better.    I assume they'll be in the same ballpark.

[esmd]

The Chen and Samardzija deals will be the lowest he gets.  My guess is, he'll exceed those deals by a bit.

[Frobby]

42 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Here is the list of potential FA starting pitchers with Tillman. What will this do to the market?

Arrieta and Darvish will make more.   So will Cueto and Tanaka if they opt out (which they'll only do if they have good, healthy seasons).     Tillman's in the next tier down, and exactly where he falls in that group depends on who has a good season.   Some pretty good talent on the market, but also a lot of vacancies in teams' rotations so it should be a more active market than this season's.   Another round of salary inflation would not surprise me, considering the money that went to relievers this offseason in the absence of a supply of good starters on the market.  

[Number5]

The thing I'd most like to see happen on this list is the Orioles exercising the $12 million club option on Miley, because there is only one reason that the Orioles would do that.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Number5 said:

The thing I'd most like to see happen on this list is the Orioles exercising the $12 million club option on Miley, because there is only one reason that the Orioles would do that.

Good point!

[Bahama O's Fan]

Could need a lot of pitching come that offseason. Miley, Ubaldo and Tillman free agents. We will only have Bundy and Gausman. Better hope some young guys step up.