Factual standing of the O's without sabermetics & player specific empirical data

[tropicos]

1 minute ago, Emory Eagle said:

Just win, I don't care how. 

A great motto.  

[Chavez Ravine]

5 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Do we really "get a vibe" by now?

There have been guys with poor starts or great starts and people assume they will continue all year.   Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't.

I think it's human nature to remember the ones that do continue, and say "yeah, we could see from the start that he was [having a breakout year] / [having a terrible year].   And forget the guys who turned it around for better or for worse.

Your questions are certainly valid concerns, of course, and we are all worried about them.

My OPINIONS (read that GUESSES):

   -- Jones will have a very good year.   He just looks so much better in the field than last year, and better at the plate too.   Makes me believe that maybe he really  was playing hurt last year and it had an affect.

   -- I think Gausman will right the ship and be a solid pitcher.

   -- I have no idea on Tillman.   Can't even venture a guess.   He's basically been hurt since December, and while I usually don't get concerned about minor league rehab stats, it's hard not to look at what he has allowed with SOME worry.   But it's kind of like spring training stats.  As soon as they accumulate a couple real MLB games you forget them completely.   If you asked me now which Orioles had great springs statistically and which didn't, I'd probably have to close my eyes and really concentrate to even remember.

   -- Hardy looks done to me.   He hasn't been a great hitter the past few years and he's downright awful now; and his defense has taken a horrific decline this year (this is eyeball test, I haven't gone out and looked up defensive stats.   But my eyeballs have watched about 22 of the 26 games this year from start to finish, so...)

   -- Davis is another tough one to call.   We have seen him have prolonged slumps and come out of them.

   -- I think once Britton gets in a groove he will be as good as he was in 2014/15.

Of course.  I was replying in the spirit of the opening post.  I once saw Brady Anderson absolutely destroy balls in batting practice and then went on to hit two homers in the game.  Ever since then, I have been convinced that I can tell what folks will do based on my expert observational skills

I agree on Jones.  He looks different on defense this year.  And perhaps, at this point, it is unfair to dream about a monster year from him. Despite his penchant for the slider in the dirt, he is a model of consistency, dependability, and leadership.  Cal's successor in that regard I think.

I suspect Davis is good 'ol Davis as well, and will carry us for a few weeks.

 

 

[tropicos]

13 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I guess I'm a fatalist.  

 

 

This is what I find so fascinating.  14 years of losing.  A 2005 pre-Buck, steroid-implicated team with a 2nd half collapse.  The experts predicting us to not make the playoffs.  The valuable numbers telling us we should not make the playoffs.  And yet, this is a team that has made the playoffs in 3 out of the past 5 years...has not had a losing season in such span...and now have a 16-10 start (2nd best in the past 6 years).  When are we just considered a competitive playoff caliber team?