Factual standing of the O's without sabermetics & player specific empirical data

[tropicos]

.615 win% overall.  .609 win% vs AL East.   .533 win% on road games.   .500 play vs LHP.  (all better this yr vs last yr, except same vs LHP)   Injuries (Tillman, Britton), adversity (BOS) & a huge blown lead (NYY).  Oh, and Jimenez is still on the team.  How does that make you feel without factoring in sabermetrics & other empirical data?   

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, tropicos said:

.615 win% overall.  .609 win% vs AL East.   .533 win% on road games.   .500 play vs LHP.  (all better this yr vs last yr, except same vs LHP)   Injuries (Tillman, Britton), adversity (BOS) & a huge blown lead (NYY).  Oh, and Jimenez is still on the team.  How does that make you feel without factoring in sabermetrics & other empirical data?   

How is that not empirical data?

I know you specified player data but it's still data. 

I don't understand the point of looking at some of the data.  If there is value in what you decided to share isn't value present in what you didn't share?

[SteveA]

If we could squeak out a win tonight we would have gone 15-9 in the 24 AL East games in our first stretch of 27.   I think just about anyone would have been happy about that on April 13.   Worst case 14-10.

And if we win tonight we'd be a half game out of first, and 2.5 ahead of Boston.

And the Yankees would be visiting the Cubs this weekend while we have the White Sox at home, so we would be in excellent shape to potentially be in first place after the weekend.

Obviously there have been some disappointments, but overall it's been a great season so far.   There was a lot of pressure on us to do well in the stretch of 24/27 games to start the season vs the ALE, because poor play in that stretch would put us in a hole.   We have passed that test regardless of how tonight goes.

And of course, as Dan-O can tell you, we won the most important game, the Wednesday night game vs the Rays whose effects will reverberate throughout the entire season.  

[Frobby]

I'm totally happy with where we are, though I'll be happier if we beat Boston tonight.    

[tropicos]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How is that not empirical data?

I put in the title "player-specific", then said "other" in the post rather than being consistent in using "player-specific" again.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, tropicos said:

I put in the title "player-specific", then said "other" in the post rather than being consistent in using "player-specific" again.

I edited to better explain my point.

[SteveA]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'm totally happy with where we are, though I'll be happier if we beat Boston tonight.    

Count on Frobby to say the exact same thing I did, but more clearly and succintly and with fewer long sentences.

[tropicos]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I edited to better explain my point.

There's a ton a value.  But I'm posing a question that requires the response to ignore/disregard the other data.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, tropicos said:

There's a ton a value.  But I'm posing a question that requires the response to ignore/disregard the other data.

I guess I just don't understand the value of such an exercise.

I hope you get out of it what you want.  Now I will leave you to your exercise.

[Chavez Ravine]

Just now, Frobby said:

I'm totally happy with where we are, though I'll be happier if we beat Boston tonight.    

Nothing seems settled yet.  I know it never is in April/early May, but about this time of year you often get a vibe on what individual players are going to do over the year (baring injuries etc).  Manny looks like Manny and Bundy looks like he is building on his solid return last year. But after that:

Will Jones stay calm at the plate and have the monster year of our dreams?

Is Gausman just going through a rough patch?

Is Tillman's shoulder capable of getting MLB batters out?

Is J.J. Hardy just getting his creaky bones warmed up, or do we get to watch the end play out over 100+ games?

Has Chris Davis really transformed into a defensive specialist?

Is Britton OK?

 

 

 

[Frobby]

All valid questions.    But they can't take away the fact that we're 16-10 after playing a very difficult part of our schedule over 26 games.    Those are in the books and we get to keep the wins.   

[Chavez Ravine]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

All valid questions.    But they can't take away the fact that we're 16-10 after playing a very difficult part of our schedule over 26 games.    Those are in the books and we get to keep the wins.   

I'm not complaining 

[SteveA]

4 minutes ago, Chavez Ravine said:

Nothing seems settled yet.  I know it never is in April/early May, but about this time of year you often get a vibe on what individual players are going to do over the year (baring injuries etc).  Manny looks like Manny and Bundy looks like he is building on his solid return last year. But after that:

Will Jones stay calm at the plate and have the monster year of our dreams?

Is Gausman just going through a rough patch?

Is Tillman's shoulder capable of getting MLB batters out?

Is J.J. Hardy just getting his creaky bones warmed up, or do we get to watch the end play out over 100+ games?

Has Chris Davis really transformed into a defensive specialist?

Is Britton OK?

 

 

 

Do we really "get a vibe" by now?

There have been guys with poor starts or great starts and people assume they will continue all year.   Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't.

I think it's human nature to remember the ones that do continue, and say "yeah, we could see from the start that he was [having a breakout year] / [having a terrible year].   And forget the guys who turned it around for better or for worse.

Your questions are certainly valid concerns, of course, and we are all worried about them.

My OPINIONS (read that GUESSES):

   -- Jones will have a very good year.   He just looks so much better in the field than last year, and better at the plate too.   Makes me believe that maybe he really  was playing hurt last year and it had an affect.

   -- I think Gausman will right the ship and be a solid pitcher.

   -- I have no idea on Tillman.   Can't even venture a guess.   He's basically been hurt since December, and while I usually don't get concerned about minor league rehab stats, it's hard not to look at what he has allowed with SOME worry.   But it's kind of like spring training stats.  As soon as they accumulate a couple real MLB games you forget them completely.   If you asked me now which Orioles had great springs statistically and which didn't, I'd probably have to close my eyes and really concentrate to even remember.

   -- Hardy looks done to me.   He hasn't been a great hitter the past few years and he's downright awful now; and his defense has taken a horrific decline this year (this is eyeball test, I haven't gone out and looked up defensive stats.   But my eyeballs have watched about 22 of the 26 games this year from start to finish, so...)

   -- Davis is another tough one to call.   We have seen him have prolonged slumps and come out of them.

   -- I think once Britton gets in a groove he will be as good as he was in 2014/15.

[tropicos]

29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I guess I just don't understand the value of such an exercise.

I hope you get out of it what you want.  Now I will leave you to your exercise.

Sabermetrics don't tell the whole story.  It's incomplete.  Projections using such data have consistently underestimated the O's W-L record.  I'm not saying such data isn't valuable.  But considering it's not perfect data and generally not reflective on our results, I'm asking to forget it completely and then--- how would you then view our record?    The idea is to think about how difficult it is to play in the AL East. To play on the road. Our records from the previous years, etc. There's obviously a dimension to our team we don't understand. We can't understand it looking at the specific numbers and yet we constantly find ourselves obsessing over those numbers.  (**I love sabermetrics. they're incomplete though. this is like a hypothetical question consistent to how we viewed teams pre-sabermetrics, pre-2000's)

[Emory Eagle]

I am frustrated (as usual over the past 20 years of Orioles baseball) with the pitchers walking too many and our hitters low OBP.  I worry that our starting pitching is hanging by a thread, Gausman especially needs to sort out whatever issues he's having.  I'm also concerned about O'Day, he can't seem to get through an inning without at least one line drive squared up against him these days.  

All that said, pretty impressive start to the season.  Just win, I don't care how.