BA Latest Mock Draft

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Draft Huira if he's there. He could be in Bowie this time next year. We will find a position for that bat. 

Agreed, but I doubt he's there.

[weams]

On 6/3/2017 at 2:02 PM, Otter said:

Watched several innings of Canning's start yesterday against Texas.  First impression is that he has an outstanding curveball; hard, biting, 12 to 6.  Even more impressive was the excellent command of the curveball; he seemed to be able to throw it for strikes whenever he wanted.  Fastball looked decent, not overpowering though and seemed a little straight (but that's hard to tell from the camera angle).  Changeup was definitely his 3rd best pitch, and he didn't throw it much.  Overall, I think he would be a safe pick...probably could move through the system quickly but I'm not sure how much of an upside he has in my opinion.  I realize it was a small sample size, but his scouting reports seem to back up what I was seeing.  Personally, I'd prefer someone with higher upside for our 1st round pick, but he wouldn't be a terrible pick if that's who we take.

Me too. 

[Tryptamine]

Just remember that Hiura is going to need TJS at some point, so don't expect him to be a super quick mover.

[backwardsk]

DD just said that the strength of the draft is RHP.  

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, backwardsk said:

DD just said that the strength of the draft is RHP.  

Yeah, I argee, I'd say almost half of the top 200 draft prospects are RHP, with the college ranks being especially strong.  That's why I say you go bat in the first round unless a top pitcher falls, there will be a lot of interesting arms in rounds 2-5.

[TINSTAAPP]

2 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

Yeah, I argee, I'd say almost half of the top 200 draft prospects are RHP, with the college ranks being especially strong.  That's why I say you go bat in the first round unless a top pitcher falls, there will be a lot of interesting arms in rounds 2-5.

Am I the only one who wants the Orioles to stock up on HS pitching? I'm tired of this organization constantly drafting "safe" college pitchers with average stuff only for them to disappoint. Get some high upside flamethrowers in this organization with the potential to become stars. Plus this team will likely be in rebuild mode after 2018 anyway. Might as well think of the long-term future instead of constantly drafting these low upside college guys. 

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, TINSTAAPP said:

Am I the only one who wants the Orioles to stock up on HS pitching? I'm tired of this organization constantly drafting "safe" college pitchers with average stuff only for them to disappoint. Get some high upside flamethrowers in this organization with the potential to become stars. Plus this team will likely be in rebuild mode after 2018 anyway. Might as well think of the long-term future instead of constantly drafting these low upside college guys. 

The idea that college pitchers don't have upside is a fallacy.  Of the top 5 MLB pitchers over the last 5 years (by WAR), 4 were drafted out of college (Price, Scherzer, Kluber, and Sale).  The fact is that this particular draft is deeper in college pitching than any other category.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, phillyOs119 said:

The idea that college pitchers don't have upside is a fallacy.  Of the top 5 MLB pitchers over the last 5 years (by WAR), 4 were drafted out of college (Price, Scherzer, Kluber, and Sale).  The fact is that this particular draft is deeper in college pitching than any other category.

I don't think folks think that top pitchers don't come out of college, just that they don't tend to drop as low as the Orioles' pick.

Price- 1:1

Scherzer- 1:11

Kluber- 4th round (I'm in FL and I've never heard of Stetson, I do give them points for calling their teams the Hatters.)

Sale- 1:13

 

[TINSTAAPP]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think folks think that top pitchers don't come out of college, just that they don't tend to drop as low as the Orioles' pick.

Price- 1:1

Scherzer- 1:11

Kluber- 4th round (I'm in FL and I've never heard of Stetson, I do give them points for calling their teams the Hatters.)

Sale- 1:13

 

That was another point I was going to make. You're 100% right. Most of the really good college pitchers typically get scooped up very early in the draft i.e. Sale, Scherzer, Price, Lincecum, Strasburg, Verlander, etc.. Those type of guys don't drop to #21. If you look at the history of the MLB Draft over the last 20 years, almost all of the late first round pitchers that ended up becoming really good ML pitchers were drafted out of high school (Aaron Sanchez, Michael Fulmer, Noah Syndergaard, C.C. Sabathia, Adam Wainwright, Gio Gonzalez, Rick Porcello, Matt Cain, etc..). Meanwhile, the best college pitcher drafted in the latter portion of the first round is probably Lance Lynn who's a very good pitcher but he'll likely never reach the peaks of the guys I just mentioned. 

[Can_of_corn]

I wouldn't count Porcello, he wouldn't be drafted and signed at that place under the new rules.  He was viewed as the top HS arm in the country.

[Tryptamine]

Levels of risk from safest to riskiest

College Position Player

College Pitcher

HS Position Player

HS Pitcher

HS Catcher

Suggesting going all in on HS arms is #1 very expensive and #2 incredibly risky especially for a team like the Orioles who need arms and they need them soon. The most odds friendly way to be successful is to draft college bats, let them move quickly and then spin them for pitchers.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Levels of risk from safest to riskiest

College Position Player

College Pitcher

HS Position Player

HS Pitcher

HS Catcher

Suggesting going all in on HS arms is #1 very expensive and #2 incredibly risky especially for a team like the Orioles who need arms and they need them soon. The most odds friendly way to be successful is to draft college bats, let them move quickly and then spin them for pitchers.

And you still end up with the occasional DJ Stewart who may or may not turn into anything but has to be a year behind the original projected schedule.

Actually I think college arms have more of a chance to at least reach the majors.

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

And you still end up with the occasional DJ Stewart who may or may not turn into anything but has to be a year behind the original projected schedule.

Indeed, no plan is fool proof. I'm just saying, if you have to choose between a guy like Kentucky 1B White or 3B Burger and someone like Houck or Canning then I'm taking the hitters who are safer bets to reach the MLB and become valuable trade assets

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

Indeed, no plan is fool proof. I'm just saying, if you have to choose between a guy like Kentucky 1B White or 3B Burger and someone like Houck or Canning then I'm taking the hitters who are safer bets to reach the MLB and become valuable trade assets

I'd rather play them over trading them.

Given the choice.

[Otter]

3 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Indeed, no plan is fool proof. I'm just saying, if you have to choose between a guy like Kentucky 1B White or 3B Burger and someone like Houck or Canning then I'm taking the hitters who are safer bets to reach the MLB and become valuable trade assets

I agree in general.  Especially in the 1st round; the risk of injury is so much more with pitchers.  And in this particular draft it appears to be deep in college pitchers, so in a perfect world we could get a good hitting prospect in the 1st round and load up on pitchers later.  That being said, I'm not a fan of Burger and would prefer Houck/Canning/Lange over him if that's the choice.