Tim Kurkjian On Whether Orioles Should Trade Manny Machado

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

FYI, to those so keen on dealing Manny for arms - I did a deep dive. Ainsworth and Hannaman entered the 2003 season as the Giants' No. 3 and No. 6 prospects, per Scout.com. Sometimes, stuff happens.

Ainsworth's failure was injury-related, as I recall.    He was hurt before the trade (broken shoulder blade) and then in spring 2005 was diagnosed with a torn rotator cuff and labrum.    One more reason why the Orioles are shy about signing guys with questionable medicals.

[Tryptamine]

18 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

How about Machado to the Mets for a package centered around Conforto (OF), Rosario (SS), and Gsellman or a high end minor league arm? They have a glaring need a 3B and a glut of outfielders. Thoughts?

Getting a 24 year old  Conforto by himself would be high way robbery. He's under control for I believe 5 more years and he's in the middle of a break out year where's he's on pace for about 7fWAR.  Adding a top 5 prospect in the game and another mlb ready starter with 6 years of control  is way way too much.

[FlipTheBird]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Ainsworth's failure was injury-related, as I recall.    He was hurt before the trade (broken shoulder blade) and then in spring 2005 was diagnosed with a torn rotator cuff and labrum.    One more reason why the Orioles are shy about signing guys with questionable medicals.

Indeed it was. The O's accepting him as part of the trade when he was actively injured was pretty bold on their part.

Hannaman, I can't find anything on, short of that he never played baseball again after 2004, and is now gainfully employed in Mobile, Alabama. Injuries got him too, I'd assume, given that his career just abruptly stops in early '04 after a string of bad appearances.

Moss was only ever a placeholder for Ponson's spot in the rotation. He just totally bombed doing it

[crawjo]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

How about Machado to the Mets for a package centered around Conforto (OF), Rosario (SS), and Gsellman or a high end minor league arm? They have a glaring need a 3B and a glut of outfielders. Thoughts?

Duquette would do that in an instant. But the Mets are floundering under .500 right now and seem unlikely to trade prospects for a star player. 

[crawjo]

3 hours ago, El Gordo said:

I think their chances are as good as BOS or MFY. Too good to give up in the middle of the season. No team has ever thrown in the towel while they had a winning record, that's just a totally ludidcrous notion.

I don't. Boston has a legitimate ace in Sale and a solid rotation overall, not to mention a bounty of young players in their lineup who have real upside (Benintendi most obviously). They still have pieces they can trade at the deadline to improve their weaknesses. The Yankees 25-man roster right now has overperformed, but they also have tons of great prospects that they can use at any time in a trade to add to their current roster. The present and future of the Orioles is much bleaker than either of those teams, IMO. 

[FlipTheBird]

41 minutes ago, crawjo said:

I don't. Boston has a legitimate ace in Sale and a solid rotation overall, not to mention a bounty of young players in their lineup who have real upside (Benintendi most obviously). They still have pieces they can trade at the deadline to improve their weaknesses. The Yankees 25-man roster right now has overperformed, but they also have tons of great prospects that they can use at any time in a trade to add to their current roster. The present and future of the Orioles is much bleaker than either of those teams, IMO. 

While I'd agree that Boston, for sure, has a better overall roster, and the Yanks have some real bright spots... The fact is, those two teams present and futures have seemed brighter than the Orioles' for most of the last 5 years, too, and it's the O's that have won the most games in that time.

This team finds ways to win.

[crawjo]

21 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

While I'd agree that Boston, for sure, has a better overall roster, and the Yanks have some real bright spots... The fact is, those two teams present and futures have seemed brighter than the Orioles' for most of the last 5 years, too, and it's the O's that have won the most games in that time.

This team finds ways to win.

The Yankees have not appeared to have a brighter present or future than the Orioles in the last three years or so. They had a roster filled with aging players and a mediocre farm system. They've turned things around very quickly. Boston has had a more impressive roster for the last five years. They also have two division titles and a world championship in that time, even though they had a couple down years as well. 

I agree this Orioles team finds ways to win. My fear is this: that we are basically a .500 team that finds ways to get to 87 wins or so and a wild card berth, but not more than that. Obviously, a wild card berth is valuable, but with the one-game playoff its value is pretty limited, in my opinion. The Yankees last year had a real shot at the wild card. Instead they traded Chapman, Miller, and Beltran, and in return got blue chip prospects that could help their team as soon as next month. That's the kind of move I think the Orioles should be making, up to and including trading Machado. (If only Britton were healthy, he would also be an ideal trade candidate.) 

[esmd]

4 hours ago, El Gordo said:

Check out Manny's age 23 numers v Jeter's. And Manny as a 3B is still a better SS than Jeter.

 

I hear you, overall the numbers favor Manny.  I was referring to that hard to quantify "clutch" trait.  It seemed like whenever we played the damn Yankees, that SOB got the big hit to beat us, or made a big defensive play that was a difference in the game.  Like I said, very subjective, but that's what I'm getting at.  Manny on defense is magnificent obviously, but I just haven't seen him show a propensity to be "the guy" that opposing teams fear seeing at the plate late in a close game where he has an opportunity to win the game for us.

[El Gordo]

1 minute ago, esmd said:

I hear you, overall the numbers favor Manny.  I was referring to that hard to quantify "clutch" trait.  It seemed like whenever we played the damn Yankees, that SOB got the big hit to beat us, or made a big defensive play that was a difference in the game.  Like I said, very subjective, but that's what I'm getting at.  Manny on defense is magnificent obviously, but I just haven't seen him show a propensity to be "the guy" that opposing teams fear seeing at the plate late in a close game where he has an opportunity to win the game for us.

Did we see all of that from Jeter in his first 3 years? I'd give Manny at least 10 before I compare him with Jeter.  Wouldn't be surprised if he does favorably.

[esmd]

2 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

Did we see all of that from Jeter in his first 3 years? I'd give Manny at least 10 before I compare him with Jeter. 

I guess I'm still scarred by Game 1 of the 1996 ALCS....seemed like he started there killing us and never stopped, right up through his last home game....man I'm glad he's retired....

[hoosiers]

On ‎6‎/‎6‎/‎2017 at 4:34 PM, FlipTheBird said:

What a flop that whole process turned out to be. The guys the O's got back did squat (Kurt Ainsworth, Damian Moss, Ryan Hannaman), and Sidney came back and collapsed. Ugh. Don't miss those days.

Ainsworth posted an ERA of over 10 in 33 odd innings for the Orioles, and never threw another professional pitch after mid-2004.

Ryan Hannaman never got past Frederick, and didn't throw another professional pitcher after 2004.

Damian Moss went 1-5 with a 6.22 ERA after the trade, and was out of the organization the following offseason. He very briefly appeared for the Rays, before spending years kicking around the minors before eventually retiring.

FYI, to those so keen on dealing Manny for arms - I did a deep dive. Ainsworth and Hannaman entered the 2003 season as the Giants' No. 3 and No. 6 prospects, per Scout.com. Sometimes, stuff happens.

Just because those guys didn't pan out doesn't mean it wasn't a good trade.  You go for the higher-end difference makers and see what happens.  We were also supposed to love the Conine to the Marlins trade that resulted in two quality prospects that really didn't pan out.  You trust your scouts and negotiate the best deal you can.  Ainsworth had the potential to be a very good pitcher.  

[clapdiddy]

What's Manny worth at this point?   He's still elite defensively, but his offense has been pretty pedestrian for about a season's worth of PA's.

[El Gordo]

35 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

What's Manny worth at this point?   He's still elite defensively, but his offense has been pretty pedestrian for about a season's worth of PA's.

He's still worth a lot. Most GM's are smart enough to look past this half season at age 24 and see the body of his career.

[25 Nuggets]

15 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

He's still worth a lot. Most GM's are smart enough to look past this half season at age 24 and see the body of his career.

Well, chances are he'll turn it around.  But chances also are that his offensive spike came early.  Either way his value is indeed still high.

I am firmly in the trade Machado camp at this point.  And the trade must be a good one that nets several key pieces in return.  It can't be a trade just to trade him.

[oriolediehard]

What will bother me is the Yankees got more for Andrew Miller than the O's will get for Machado.  For that matter they got more for Carlos Beltran than O's will get for Machado.   If this isn't collusion to help the Yankees I don't  know what is.  It has always been that way since MLB started.