The performance of Gary Rajsich versus the 29 other scouting directors

[Frobby]

16 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

No argument there, as far as quality. But top to bottom throughout the organization, I think we have much more depth now. 

Can you explain what you mean by depth in this context?

[TINSTAAPP]

Just imagine how much better Rajsich's performance would be if DD hadn't lost first round draft picks signing Jiminez and Gallardo! Of course they still would have ended up losing a first round pick when they signed Cruz who was worth it but they would have at least had a second round pick to work with. Rajsich has done a great job with the little resources he has been given.

[AZRon]

Here are the results for rounds 21 - 40 of the 2013 draft:

2013	Drafted	Signed	MLB Time	+ WAR
ARZ	20	14	0	0
ATL	20	7	0	0
BAL	20	12	2	1
BOS	20	9	0	0
CHC	20	5	0	0
CHW	20	16	0	0
CIN	20	6	1	0
CLE	20	9	1	1
COL	20	6	0	0
DET	20	15	0	0
HOU	20	16	1	0
KCR	20	7	0	0
LAA	20	20	1	0
LAD	20	10	1	0
MIA	20	10	0	0
MIL	20	14	0	0
MIN	20	9	0	0
NYM	20	8	0	0
NYY	20	11	0	0
OAK	20	13	0	0
PHI	20	12	1	1
PIT	20	8	0	0
SDP	20	11	0	0
SEA	20	12	0	0
SFG	20	13	0	0
STL	20	17	1	0
TBR	20	14	1	0
TEX	20	10	0	0
TOR	20	10	1	0
WAS	20	10	0	0
	600	334	11	3

11 players have seen some MLB playing time and 3 have achieved a positive WAR.
The top performing choice to date is Donnie Hart , drafted by the Orioles in round 27 as the 819th player chosen; he currently carries a WAR of 1.6

The remaining 2 players each have a WAR below 1.0

The Orioles are the only team to have more than 1 player see MLB service. In addition to Hart, the O's have Stefan Crichton with a -0.2 WAR, chosen in round 23 as the 699th player

I rate Gary Rajsich's performance versus his peers in this portion of the 2013 draft as 1st.

 

[Frobby]

Given my views about the potential outcome of our top 10 picks, along with your analysis of what we got out of rounds 11-40, I'd give Rajsich high marks for the 2013 draft.

Spoiler alert: no player the Orioles have drafted in 2014 or later has made it to the majors yet.   So, you certainly won't be able to grade Rajsich's performance in those years as above average at this time, using your methodology.

[AZRon]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Given my views about the potential outcome of our top 10 picks, along with your analysis of what we got out of rounds 11-40, I'd give Rajsich high marks for the 2013 draft.

Spoiler alert: no player the Orioles have drafted in 2014 or later has made it to the majors yet.   So, you certainly won't be able to grade Rajsich's performance in those years as above average at this time, using your methodology.

In summary, for the 2013 draft, I rated Gary Rajsich's performance versus his peers as:
bottom 1/2 for   1 - 10
top 5 for          11 - 20 
1st for             21 - 40 

Overall, for the 2013 draft, I think he ranks in the top 5
 

[Frobby]

FWIW, I think it takes a minimum of 6-7 years to really evaluate a draft.    The median age at which players debut in the majors is about 24.5.    So, for the high school draftees, you wouldn't necessarily even expect a lot of them to be reaching the majors or having any impact there until 6-7 years after they were drafted.    Of course, many of the truly outstanding ones will reach the majors before then.   But take a guy like Zach Britton, who was drafted in 2006 -- he was very good in the minors but didn't make it to the majors until 2011, and didn't really find his niche until   2014.     Or Givens, drafted in 2009 but first got called up in 2015.    Even a guy like Tillman, who was first called to the majors three years after he was drafted, didn't really started to have an impact until six years after being selected.    

[AZRon]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

FWIW, I think it takes a minimum of 6-7 years to really evaluate a draft....

How much weight should be given to how quickly the draft selections make a positive impact at the MLB level?

By way of illustration, review the below chart:

	Draft Year/# of Players @ MLB with +WAR
Current Season	Scouting Director A	Scouting Director B
2012	2010/2	2010/0
2013	2010/3	2010/1
2014	2010/4	2010/2
2015	2010/5	2010/3
2016	2010/6	2010/4
2017	2010/6	2010/8
2018	2010/6	2010/10

For the sake of this example, assume all of the players had similar positive WAR values

So, which of the scouting directors in the example had the superior performance? 
 

 

[Jammer7]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Can you explain what you mean by depth in this context?

I think we have many more prospects that, if they can develop, have major league ability/quality tools. We have taken more high school talent since Rajsich has been here. Not saying we have more all star type talent, but guys that can contribute at ML level. We are still weak in MIF and 3B, but overall I think we have better depth. The starting pitching has been somewhat disappointing, but some have shown signs, like Akin, of turning things around. I think we have a lot of ground to make up in the quality overall, when you compare the Orioles to Boston, Cubs, Dodgers, etc.... But, to me, the overall talent has been improved since DD, Rajsich and Graham have been here.

[Frobby]

59 minutes ago, AZRon said:

How much weight should be given to how quickly the draft selections make a positive impact at the MLB level?

By way of illustration, review the below chart:

	Draft Year/# of Players @ MLB with +WAR
Current Season	Scouting Director A	Scouting Director B
2012	2010/2	2010/0
2013	2010/3	2010/1
2014	2010/4	2010/2
2015	2010/5	2010/3
2016	2010/6	2010/4
2017	2010/6	2010/8
2018	2010/6	2010/10

For the sake of this example, assume all of the players had similar positive WAR values

So, which of the scouting directors in the example had the superior performance? 
 

 

I'm not sure I can answer that question.    It depends in part in the number of high school players taken vs. college players.   On the one hand, you've gotten 32 seasons of production from group A, only 28 from group B.    On the other hand, if group B was more high school heavy, you might have significantly more years of production remaining in the second group.

[AZRon]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I'm not sure I can answer that question.    It depends in part in the number of high school players taken vs. college players.   On the one hand, you've gotten 32 seasons of production from group A, only 28 from group B......

My judgement is that there is a significant element of time value associated with the subsequent positive performance of draft selections.  That is, all else equal, a positive contribution to the major league team in year 3 after the draft is worth more than that same contribution in year 4, etc.  I'm not a present value wizard, but, again all else equal, I believe that the differential would expand with the passage of time.

I understand that, in the real world, there are tons of variables and that the contributions of a Manny Machado or a Kris Bryant can jumble the performance measurement. But, so can the performances of several versions of  Donnie Hart and Chad Green.