The performance of Gary Rajsich versus the 29 other scouting directors

[AZRon]

16 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Scouting directors don't draft injuries.  They may draft injury prone players and that is on them but I feel like you have to adjust for, or at least mention injuries.  To do this you would have to set some sort of minimum innings pitched or at bats depending on the year the player was taken.  Then rule players who have not reached that threshold ineligible for the analysis.  See Kline.

Great work though.

Thanks

I'm assuming that all scouting directors swim in same the risk/reward pool. Their choices of where they to choose to swim and/or take their dips can be fairly measured by their overall results.

[Ornithological]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is -.2 better or worse than missing entirely?  Is there value in negative production?

Sorry in interrupt, just something I think about occasionally.

In general, it would be better for the team to miss entirely.    -.2  would be better if an alternative player would have produced for example -.3 

[AZRon]

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is -.2 better or worse than missing entirely?  Is there value in negative production?

Sorry in interrupt, just something I think about occasionally.

Here's what Ryan P. Morrison of SBNation had to say about negative WAR. It's a 2014 article and highlights the Orioles's sensitivity to the statistic.

[AZRon]

In 2012, the O's picked Lex Rutledge in the 6th round as the 192nd player chosen in the draft.

He has yet to appear on a MLB active roster, is no longer in the O's organization and last pitched in Australia in 2016.

There were 29 players drafted before the Orioles next opportunity at #4 in round 7.

Here are the results for those 29 players:

All 29 draftees signed.
6 players (pitchers and position players) have seen some time in MLB.
Just 3 have achieved a positive WAR; by far, the highest is Jake Lamb at 6.4 WAR. The other 2 players posted WAR of 1.2 and 0.4 

I'll review the results after the Orioles's 2012 7th round pick next.

[AZRon]

In 2012, the O's picked Matt Price in the 7th round as the 222nd player chosen in the draft.

He has yet to appear on a MLB active roster, is no longer in the O's organization and last pitched for Frederick in 2014.

There were 29 players drafted before the Orioles next opportunity at #4 in round 8.

Here are the results for those 29 players:

All 29 draftees signed.
3 players (pitchers and position players) have seen some time in MLB.
Just 2 have achieved a positive WAR; by far, the higher is Kyle Barraclough at 2.0 WAR.

I'll review the results after the Orioles's 2012 8th round pick next.

[AZRon]

In 2012, the O's picked Torsten Boss in the 8th round as the 252nd player chosen in the draft.

He has yet to appear on a MLB active roster, is no longer in the O's organization and last pitched for Cleveland's Class A team in 2014.

There were 29 players drafted before the Orioles next opportunity at #4 in round 9.

Here are the results for those 29 players:

28 draftees signed.
2 players (pitchers and position players) have seen some time in MLB.
Neither has achieved a positive WAR.

I'll review the results after the Orioles's 2012 9th round pick next.

[AZRon]

In 2012, the O's picked Brady Wager in the 9th round as the 282nd player chosen in the draft.

He has yet to appear on a MLB active roster, is no longer in the O's organization and last pitched for Frederick in 2014.

There were 29 players drafted before the Orioles next opportunity at #4 in round 10.

Here are the results for those 29 players:

All 29 draftees signed.
6 players (pitchers and position players) have seen some time in MLB.
Only 1 has achieved a positive WAR -- Nick Wittgren at 1.2 WAR.  Of note is the 0.0 WAR achieved by Joey Rickard.

I'll review the results after the Orioles's 2012 10th round pick next.

[AZRon]

In 2012, the O's picked Joel Hutter in the 10th round as the 312th player chosen in the draft.

He has yet to appear on a MLB active roster, is no longer in the O's organization and last played in independent ball for the Frontier League in 2015.

There were 29 players drafted before the Orioles next opportunity at #4 in round 11.

Here are the results for those 29 players:

28 draftees signed.
3 players (pitchers and position players) have seen some time in MLB.
2 have achieved a positive WAR -- Taylor Rogers at 1.9 WAR leads. 

I'll review the results after the Orioles's 2012 rounds 11 through 20 picks next.

[backwardsk]

17 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is -.2 better or worse than missing entirely?  Is there value in negative production?

Sorry in interrupt, just something I think about occasionally.

Is there value in negative production?  When we're talking about accumulating WAR over a very short period, I think you can make a case for it.

Hypothetically, let's say you bring up a first baseman you drafted and is currently on the 40 man because your entrenched first baseman goes on the DL.  Your other option is to add a AAAA guy not currently on your roster.  Bring him up and you risk losing an asset that can help down the road.  If your drafted 1B gives you negative WAR for 15-20 games, that can be offset by saving the roster spot.

[AZRon]

Here are the results for rounds 11 -20 of the 2012 draft:

2012	Drafted	Signed	MLB Time	+ WAR
ARZ	10	9	0	0
ATL	10	9	0	0
BAL	10	6	1	1
BOS	10	8	2	0
CHC	10	8	0	0
CHW	10	9	0	0
CIN	10	2	0	0
CLE	10	4	0	0
COL	10	1	1	0
DET	10	9	1	1
HOU	10	8	0	0
KCR	10	8	1	1
LAA	10	10	2	0
LAD	10	9	2	1
MIA	10	8	1	1
MIL	10	7	0	0
MIN	10	3	1	0
NYM	10	7	2	1
NYY	10	9	1	1
OAK	10	7	1	0
PHI	10	8	0	0
PIT	10	7	1	0
SDP	10	9	0	0
SEA	10	10	1	1
SFG	10	9	1	1
STL	10	9	0	0
TB	10	10	1	0
TEX	10	8	1	1
TOR	10	8	0	0
WAS	10	9	0	0
	300	228	21	10

To date, the most successful selections were Matt Duffy with a WAR 6.4, selected in round 18 by the Giants as the 568th player chosen, and Devon Travis drafted by the Tigers in round 13 (424th choice in the draft) with a War 6.0

No other players drafted in rounds 11 through 20 has a WAR above 2.3

In fact, only 10 draftees - one per team -  (3.3% of those drafted; 4.4% of those signed) have accumulated a positive WAR. Among those 10, selected by the Orioles in the 19th round as the 582nd drafted player, Josh Hader with a WAR of 0.6

Only 21 players (7% of the draftees; 9.2% of those signed) have seen any MLB time.

13 of the teams have yet to have a player drafted in rounds 11 through 20 reach the majors.

20 teams have yet to have a draftee who has accumulated a positive WAR.

So, for at least this portion of the 2012 draft, I would rate Gary Rajsich's performance as top 10.

[AZRon]

Here are the results for rounds 21 - 40 of the 2012 draft:

2012	Drafted	Signed	MLB Time	+ WAR
ARZ	20	15	1	0
ATL	20	11	1	1
BAL	20	15	0	0
BOS	20	6	1	0
CHC	20	9	0	0
CHW	20	14	1	1
CIN	20	10	0	0
CLE	20	9	0	0
COL	20	13	0	0
DET	20	15	0	0
HOU	20	11	2	0
KCR	20	13	2	1
LAA	20	18	1	0
LAD	20	13	1	1
MIA	20	13	0	0
MIL	20	11	1	1
MIN	20	7	0	0
NYM	20	3	0	0
NYY	20	8	0	0
OAK	20	14	1	1
PHI	20	5	1	0
PIT	20	5	0	0
SDP	20	17	0	0
SEA	20	11	0	0
SFG	20	13	0	0
STL	20	11	0	0
TBR	20	17	1	0
TEX	20	10	0	0
TOR	20	11	0	0
WAS	20	10	0	0
	600	338	14	6

 

To date, the most successful selection was Ryan Dull with a WAR of 1.3, selected in round 32 by the Athletics as the 979th player chosen.

5 other players drafted in rounds 21 through 40 have a WAR above 0.0

A total of 6 draftees - 1 per team - (1.0% of those drafted; 1.8% of those signed) have accumulated a positive WAR.

Only 14 players (2.3% of the draftees; 4.1% of those signed) have seen any MLB time.

18 of the teams, the Orioles among them, have yet to have a player drafted in rounds 21 through 40 reach the majors.

24 teams have yet to have a draftee who has accumulated a positive WAR.

So, for, at least, this portion of the 2012 draft, I would rate Gary Rajsich's performance as bottom 1/2.

[sportsfan8703]

Rep to you sir. Good analysis. However, you're underrating Rasich and here's why,

• What if we don't rush Gausman and let him develop his curveball and slider in the minors?
• What if Hader was in our rotation right now, instead of being in the Brewers pen?
• What if Walker was our DH instead of Trumbo?  

A scouting director can only do so much. Hader in the rotation would be huge and save us about $10 million in salary. Imagine if we had Walker and Mancini at 1B/DH over Davis and Trumbo. There's another 40 million in salary. 

So DD rushed Gausman. Traded Hader and DFA'd Walker. Not to mention the 40 million in payroll that could have been saved by having these guys fill roles. 

[gtman55]

Let me sum up the Orioles right now with just one sentence:

This organization is basically a mess from top to bottom.

[AZRon]

28 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Rep to you sir. Good analysis. However, you're underrating Rasich and here's why,

• What if we don't rush Gausman and let him develop his curveball and slider in the minors?
• What if Hader was in our rotation right now, instead of being in the Brewers pen?
• What if Walker was our DH instead of Trumbo?  

A scouting director can only do so much. Hader in the rotation would be huge and save us about $10 million in salary. Imagine if we had Walker and Mancini at 1B/DH over Davis and Trumbo. There's another 40 million in salary. 

So DD rushed Gausman. Traded Hader and DFA'd Walker. Not to mention the 40 million in payroll that could have been saved by having these guys fill roles. 

Thanks

As to Gausman, Hader and Walker, I'm evaluating Gary Rajsich's drafting performance versus that of his peers, not Duquette's player personnel moves. Rajsich gets positive credit for drafting each of those players and, for now, I'm not attempting to evaluate the impact of the player development department on the progress and performance of the draftees.

[eddie83]

2 hours ago, gtman55 said:

Let me sum up the Orioles right now with just one sentence:

This organization is basically a mess from top to bottom.

Nah. The starting pitching is so horrible it makes everything seem bad. Organization has its issues, not saying that.