The performance of Gary Rajsich versus the 29 other scouting directors

[AZRon]

I'm attempting to compare Gary Rajsich's results as the O's scouting director to those of his peers.

I'm going to review each draft round and to evaluate the status of all draft picks subsequent to the O's selection and prior to the Orioles next pick.

I'll use BB-Reference's WAR for the purpose of player performance comparison. I'd be pleased to consider any suggestions for an alternate statistic.

Here's how this will work:

In 2012, the O's picked Kevin Gausman in the 1st round as the 4th player chosen in the draft.

To date, he has accumulated a 6.1 WAR.

There were (an almost unbelievable) 60 players drafted before the Orioles next opportunity at #5 in round 2.

Here are the results for those 60 players:

59 draftees signed
Of those, there were 27 pitchers, 22 RH and 5 LH
A total of 31 players (pitchers and position players) have seen some time in MLB.
Currently, the top WAR among pitchers belongs to Marcus Stroman at 9.1
Lance McCullers has matched Gausman at 6.1 and Michael Wacha trails at 5.6
Among position players, Cory Seager (11.4 WAR) and Addison Russell (9.4 WAR) exceed Gausman's WAR.

I'll review the results after the Orioles's 2012 2nd round next.

[TradeAngelos]

In order to get good scouting/player results do you think Gary needs actual scouts to help him do that like all the other MLB teams do or no? 

[AZRon]

In 2012, the O's picked Branden Kline in the 2nd round as the 65th player chosen in the draft.

To date, he has yet to appear on a MLB active roster.
There were 33 players drafted before the Orioles next opportunity at #4 in round 3.

Here are the results for those 33 players:

31 draftees signed
Of those, there were 15 pitchers, 11 RH and 4 LH
A total of 12 players (pitchers and position players) have seen some time in MLB.

Currently, the top WAR among these 12 belongs to Alex Wood at 10.1; only 2 other pitchers and 1 position player have earned a positive WAR; the highest of these was 2.1

I'll review the results after the Orioles's 2012 3rd round next.

[25 Nuggets]

I like this analysis

It will probably show just how difficult it is to draft in MLB.  The international area is where the Orioles are clearly behind most of the league.

[AZRon]

In 2012, the O's picked Adrian Marin in the 3rd round as the 99th player chosen in the draft.

To date, he has yet to appear on a MLB active roster.
There were 32 players drafted before the Orioles next opportunity at #4 in round 4.

Here are the results for those 32 players:

31 draftees signed
A total of 12 players (pitchers and position players) have seen some time in MLB.
Just 7 have achieved a positive WAR; the highest is Andrew Toles at 2.0 WAR.

I'll review the results after the Orioles's 2012 4th round next.

[Frobby]

This is fairly tricky.    For one thing, if you draft a high school guy, his timeline to reach the majors is longer than a college guy.    A guy like Marin hasn't reached the median age at which the average major leaguer makes his debut.    

But please carry on, because it is definitely interesting.   

[AZRon]

In 2012, the O's picked Christian Walker in the 4th round as the 132nd player chosen in the draft.

To date, he has a negative WAR of -0.2

There were 29 players drafted before the Orioles next opportunity at #4 in round 5.

Here are the results for those 29 players:

28 draftees signed
In addition to Walker, 8 players (pitchers and position players) have seen some time in MLB.
Just 2 have achieved a positive WAR; the highest is Chris Taylor at 3.1 WAR. The remaining players, including Alec Asher, have posted WAR ranging of 0.0 to -0.6

I'll review the results after the Orioles's 2012 5th round next.

[Ohfan67]

Very fun. Tough comparison to make, but very fun. 

[Ohfan67]

The drafting thing is weird. If a scouting director gets lucky on a couple of players that have crazy good careers their reputations are often reallly bloated. Forever. The draft does involve so much luck with health and the like, especially if you evaluate WAR. Such a strange beast. 

[AZRon]

37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This is fairly tricky.    For one thing, if you draft a high school guy, his timeline to reach the majors is longer than a college guy.    A guy like Marin hasn't reached the median age at which the average major leaguer makes his debut.    

But please carry on, because it is definitely interesting.   

What  you say is true.

However, I'm attempting to evaluate the performance of  the O's scouting director versus that of his peers and I have chosen to base that comparison on the players and the amount of WAR they added to O's active roster at the MLB level during his current tenure.

Other scouting directors may have different objectives, but I am assuming Gary Rajsich is drafting to support Dan Duquette's stated goal of competing for a playoff spot every year.

 

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, AZRon said:

What  you say is true.

However, I'm attempting to evaluate the performance of  the O's scouting director versus that of his peers and I have chosen to base that comparison on the players and the amount of WAR they added to O's active roster at the MLB level during his current tenure.

Other scouting directors may have different objectives, but I am assuming Gary Rajsich is drafting to support Dan Duquette's stated goal of competing for a playoff spot every year.

 

Fine by me, as I said, it's interesting.    But it seems like this is going to take forever by your methodology.   FWIW, the only other Oriole drafted in 2012 who has made the majors is Josh Hader.  For what it's worth, we've gotten more WAR out of the 2012 draft than any AL East team besides Toronto.

[AZRon]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Fine by me, as I said, it's interesting.    But it seems like this is going to take forever by your methodology.   FWIW, the only other Oriole drafted in 2012 who has made the majors is Josh Hader.  For what it's worth, we've gotten more WAR out of the 2012 draft than any AL East team besides Toronto.

Thanks

I was unaware of a deadline 

And, yes, my scouting score for speed was barely 40

I will provide a summary after I post the details.

[Camden_yardbird]

Scouting directors don't draft injuries.  They may draft injury prone players and that is on them but I feel like you have to adjust for, or at least mention injuries.  To do this you would have to set some sort of minimum innings pitched or at bats depending on the year the player was taken.  Then rule players who have not reached that threshold ineligible for the analysis.  See Kline.

Great work though.

[AZRon]

In 2012, the O's picked Colin Poche in the 5th round as the 162nd player chosen in the draft.

However, they failed to sign the erstwhile high school graduate. He was drafted and signed by Arizona in after he graduated from college in 2016. He is currently striking out batters in Class A ball at a 15.7/9 clip with 6.0 strikeout to walk ratio. It's a sss and he is 23 years old.

There were 29 players drafted before the Orioles next opportunity at #4 in round 6.

Here are the results for those 29 players:

All 29 draftees signed
9 players (pitchers and position players) have seen some time in MLB.
Just 3 have achieved a positive WAR; the highest is Mallex Smith at 2.1 WAR followed closely by Ty Blach with a 2.0 WAR. The remaining players have posted WAR ranging from -0.2 to 0.8  Notable in this latter group is Damien Magnifico sporting a pristine 0.0 WAR.

I'll review the results after the Orioles's 2012 6th round next.
 

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, AZRon said:

In 2012, the O's picked Christian Walker in the 4th round as the 132nd player chosen in the draft.

To date, he has a negative WAR of -0.2

There were 29 players drafted before the Orioles next opportunity at #4 in round 5.

Here are the results for those 29 players:

28 draftees signed
In addition to Walker, 8 players (pitchers and position players) have seen some time in MLB.
Just 2 have achieved a positive WAR; the highest is Chris Taylor at 3.1 WAR. The remaining players, including Alec Asher, have posted WAR ranging of 0.0 to -0.6

I'll review the results after the Orioles's 2012 5th round next.

Is -.2 better or worse than missing entirely?  Is there value in negative production?

Sorry in interrupt, just something I think about occasionally.