Should the Orioles sign Andrew Cashner and Jason Vargas?

[Number5]

3 minutes ago, esmd said:

I don't think 4/$54M comes anywhere close to getting Cobb.  If they somehow signed him for that, I'd dance a freaking jig.  He's going to get something similar to what Chen got, IMO.

MLBTR projects 4/$48 for Cobb.  They've got a pretty decent track record on this stuff.

[esmd]

We'll see.  What did they predict for Chen?  And Samardjzia?

If Cobb signs for that and the Orioles aren't the ones signing him, they're idiots.

[Finisher]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

MLBTR projects 4/$48 for Cobb.  They've got a pretty decent track record on this stuff.

Sorry, but that's laughable. All of baseball will be after the same few pitchers.

Cobb will get 5/100 or around there. Lynn close to that. Arrieta and Darvish will get 25+ a year.

[weams]

16 minutes ago, Finisher said:

Sorry, but that's laughable. All of baseball will be after the same few pitchers.

Cobb will get 5/100 or around there. Lynn close to that. Arrieta and Darvish will get 25+ a year.

2016TB	AL	1	2	8.59	5	5	0	0	0	0	22.0	32	22	21	5	0	7	0	16	.337	1.77	1.72
2017	TB	AL	12	10	3.66	29	29	0	0	0	0	179.1	175	78	73	22	6	44	2	128	.254	1.22	1.24

His last three years are not 100 million dollar worthy. Unless you think the 90 million dollar Chen deal was worth it. 

 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Number5 said:

Not seeing the love.  Seems pedestrian to me and walks way too many hitters.  If the Orioles sign him, I'll be behind him all the way, and hope he proves me wrong.  For the relatively small money difference, I'd rather they go after a guy that would more likely be a genuine #3 pitcher, though.

The walks are a little concerning.   The difference between his BABIP at Coors and on the road is astounding — .339 vs. .228 in 2016, .355 vs. .218 in 2017.    That place is just nuts.

[Luke-OH]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The walks are a little concerning.   The difference between his BABIP at Coors and on the road is astounding — .339 vs. .228 in 2016, .355 vs. .218 in 2017.    That place is just nuts.

Jon Shepherd from Camden Depot who whether I agree with him or not, usually makes well educated points wrote this about Chatwood.

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2017/11/a-tale-of-two-chatwoods.html?m=1

 

[El Gordo]

57 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Jon Shepherd from Camden Depot who whether I agree with him or not, usually makes well educated points wrote this about Chatwood.

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2017/11/a-tale-of-two-chatwoods.html?m=1.

 

He doesn't mention the walk rate that is basically the same both home and away

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, El Gordo said:

He doesn't mention the walk rate that is basically the same both home and away

As is his strikeout ratio.    It boils down to the extreme BABIP differential, which is independent of walks and strikeouts.    For context, the Rockies hitter had a .040 BABIP differential home vs. away, while the pitchers had a .018 differential.   Chatwood’s was .137.

[El Gordo]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As is his strikeout ratio.    It boils down to the extreme BABIP differential, which is independent of walks and strikeouts.    For context, the Rockies hitter had a .040 BABIP differential home vs. away, while the pitchers had a .018 differential.   Chatwood’s was .137.

Well his GB% last year was 58% With better breaking stuff more weak contact.

[Three Run Homer]

Cashner and Vargas would be the kind of pitchers you would target if you had never heard of FIP.  They would both probably have about a 5 ERA pitching for a full season in OPACY.  Better than Chris Tillman or Ubaldo Jimenez, but not good enough to contend if they are your third and fourth starters.   

The O's need to stop targeting bargain basement starting pitchers that nobody else wants. They need to identify good pitchers and be willing to outbid other teams for them.   

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

Cashner and Vargas would be the kind of pitchers you would target if you had never heard of FIP.  They would both probably have about a 5 ERA pitching for a full season in OPACY.  Better than Chris Tillman or Ubaldo Jimenez, but not good enough to contend if they are your third and fourth starters.   

The O's need to stop targeting bargain basement starting pitchers that nobody else wants. They need to identify good pitchers and be willing to outbid other teams for them.   

They may have identified two good starters.   Harvey and Akin to go with Bundy and Gausman by 2019.

[foxfield]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

They may have identified two good starters.   Harvey and Akin to go with Bundy and Gausman by 2019.

That is fine, but will not move the dial in 18.  IF they really believed this I would think trading Britton and Manny to load up as many 2019-2020 ready pieces would be smart.  Oh and any dead cat bounce on Davis or Trumbo, I'd sell on that for whatever....

 

 

But if Harvey and Akin are ready...(by '19) that is good news.  Very good news.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, foxfield said:

That is fine, but will not move the dial in 18.  IF they really believed this I would think trading Britton and Manny to load up as many 2019-2020 ready pieces would be smart.  Oh and any dead cat bounce on Davis or Trumbo, I'd sell on that for whatever....

 

 

But if Harvey and Akin are ready...(by '19) that is good news.  Very good news.

O's have 30m to spend on pitching this off season.   They are not going to give up on 2018.   They will get the best starters they can with that money.   Then try to make the playoffs the way they  did in 2016.  Starters are in such demand they can always trade some  next off season if they need to make room for Harvey and Akin.  Remember they actually traded Gallardo for Smith last off season.  I would have bet they couldn't unload that contract but they did.

[Just Regular]

Chatwood was profiled on MLB's Statcast podcast recently, and at the end of it I was more excited about the idea of him.

My two biggest takeaways were his road xwOBA was basically similar to Sonny Gray, plus his curveball has elite spin, which might reasonably be expected to be a better pitch away from elevation.

It was in a segment on potentially undervalued free agents, in which Anibal Sanchez (good September, terrible Tigers defense all year) was also featured.

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

Cashner and Vargas would be the kind of pitchers you would target if you had never heard of FIP.  They would both probably have about a 5 ERA pitching for a full season in OPACY.  Better than Chris Tillman or Ubaldo Jimenez, but not good enough to contend if they are your third and fourth starters.   

The O's need to stop targeting bargain basement starting pitchers that nobody else wants. They need to identify good pitchers and be willing to outbid other teams for them.   

I agree with some of your first paragraph, but disagree that Cashner and Vargas are “bargain basement starting pitchers that nobody else wants.”     Plenty of teams will be in on them.