After Trading Machado...

[Dark Helmet]

The Orioles may not hand Manny $300m +, but would they give a guy like Mike Moustakas $100m? Does trading Manny automatically mean a rebuild? Could they just use Manny to restock the farm then go out and sign a replacement 3b?

 

[Frobby]

They could go many directions.    But it increases the likelihood they listen to offers for other players with 1-2 years remaining on their deals.   

 

[Lucky_13]

No I think they are just trying to retool and trading Machado is the best way to do it.  I'd bet any trade we make brings back at least one MLB ready starter and a replacement 3B.

[MDtransplant757]

It's a reload. 

[Aristotelian]

It depends? I agree, complete firesale is not in Angelos's DNA. Hard to imagine how we could replace Manny and fix the pitching but you never know.

[Roll Tide]

13 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The Orioles will not rebuild.   They are looking at ML pieces (Corbin/Harvey/etc.).   They will get ML pieces back in a Manny trade with maybe a prospect or two but for sure they will get ML talent back in any of these trades.   None of the trades will be strictly ML talent for prospects.   Count on it.

I agree if you think the deal for Manny includes Wacha and you figure Flaherty to be ready. Honestly I'd be disappointed if they deal Manny and hang onto Brach and Britton. I expect all three to go if Manny is dealt. 

I hnestly like a 5 for 1 from the Cards that's all prospects. I'm happy with Flaherty and signing two of  Fargas, M Gonz, etc to get through this season.

[jabba72]

Depends if the move Britton and Brach. Manny by himself probably isnt enough of a rebuild.

[ThomasTomasz]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

It depends? I agree, complete firesale is not in Angelos's DNA. Hard to imagine how we could replace Manny and fix the pitching but you never know.

They are going to try and get two major league pitchers (or guys ready for this year) out of any trade for Machado.  The thing is, most of the contenders who have the pitchers to move, probably aren't interested in that move.  The two teams who aren't contenders- the White Sox and Phillies- both have money to spend, and would love to have a superstar like Manny to build around, and this is their chance to secure a 72 hour window to hammer out an extension.  The problem with those teams is that the White Sox won't move their top guy in Kopech, meaning one of the pieces we secure in return is likely Carlos Rodon, and against Giancarlo Stanton and whatever moves the Red Sox will make to counter it, it's still going to fall well short.  

Only one team could mess up trading a superstar player like this, and it would be the Orioles.  Manny is their one piece to part with that could get the decent starters to fill out the rotation, but then we give up the high ceiling prospects, which is what the team needs to be building for the future.  If Angelos truly doesn't want a firesale, he's got to step up and allow up to add to pitching through FA and prospect trades, or extend Manny now and lets move forward from there. 

[Satyr3206]

9 minutes ago, ThomasTomasz said:

They are going to try and get two major league pitchers (or guys ready for this year) out of any trade for Machado.  The thing is, most of the contenders who have the pitchers to move, probably aren't interested in that move.  The two teams who aren't contenders- the White Sox and Phillies- both have money to spend, and would love to have a superstar like Manny to build around, and this is their chance to secure a 72 hour window to hammer out an extension.  The problem with those teams is that the White Sox won't move their top guy in Kopech, meaning one of the pieces we secure in return is likely Carlos Rodon, and against Giancarlo Stanton and whatever moves the Red Sox will make to counter it, it's still going to fall well short.  

Only one team could mess up trading a superstar player like this, and it would be the Orioles.  Manny is their one piece to part with that could get the decent starters to fill out the rotation, but then we give up the high ceiling prospects, which is what the team needs to be building for the future.  If Angelos truly doesn't want a firesale, he's got to step up and allow up to add to pitching through FA and prospect trades, or extend Manny now and lets move forward from there. 

These are my opinions so take them with a grain of salt. No 72 hour window. It will end up like the Stanton trade and destroy the Orioles leverage. We will back at square one looking for another trade partner.

Angelos did a firesale once with Syd Thrift. Didn't work out too well. He has also refused to sell off with Pat Gillick who was an excellent GM. No rhyme or reason there.

The Orioles as a Franchise have never been players for the best FA pitchers. I don't see that changing now. I also don't see them putting up 300 million plus for Manny, even though he might be worth it.

My guess. We stand pat and let Manny walk for a pick based on history. That is the worst outcome in my mind. You have to leverage your assets whether they be players, products, or information. Makes me wonder how some people got rich. Sure wasn't intelligence.

[hoosiers]

As posted above, PA has often tried to bolster the major league by asking his GM to obtain wins by poor incremental spending on stop-gap, mediocre major league players like Jay Payton.  I also think DD is more interested in his w-l record than in the shape he leaves the farm system.  So, RZ may be right that we may take a major leaguer back in a deal for Manny instead of a straight prospect haul.  Obviously, competitive teams would normally offer more in prospects in order to keep their major leaguers.  

I would like to see a full on re-build towards 2020/2021 with a pitching staff centered around Gausman, Bundy, Harvey and one of the prospects obtained for Manny - like a Flaherty.  There is a nice ceiling to those names IMO, they are cheap and we also have Hall and some other pitchers coming through the pipeline.  Our major league team would include Cisco, Mancini, Hays,  Mountcastle and possibly Stewart/Mullins as regulars.  Those names comprise a nice, cheap core to build a competitive team, IMO.  Plus, we would have several more high and medium quality prospects from dealing Manny, Britton and possibly Schoop plus possibly two top 5 draft picks after awful years in 2018 and 2019.  There would be a top five minor league system in our future if we went this way IMO.

Obviously, the NYY, BoSox will still be very, very good in 2021, but I think the paragraph above has the players that could be on our next playoff team - not sure what year that will be.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, hoosiers said:

As posted above, PA has often tried to bolster the major league by asking his GM to obtain wins by poor incremental spending on stop-gap, mediocre major league players like Jay Payton.  

Not to distract from your otherwise excellent post, but to me the GM’s get all the blame for signing Jay Payton.   That doesn’t fall on PA.

As to the rest of your plan, we’d need to extend Gausman and Bundy, or therwise they’d be out the door just as your rebuild was complete, right?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not to distract from your otherwise excellent post, but to me the GM’s get all the blame for signing Jay Payton.   That doesn’t fall on PA.

As to the rest of your plan, we’d need to extend Gausman and Bundy, or therwise they’d be out the door just as your rebuild was complete, right?

Eh.

If Peter says win as many games as you can when the team has a poor farm club and doesn't give them the payroll room to sign better players he would share some of the blame.  It has been too long for me to remember who else was in that free agent class that would have been a better choice.

[esmd]

Not necessarily.  They can backfill him with a guy like Moustakas or Frazier, and use the trade of Manny to fill our the rotation and try to remain competitive.  Or they can go full rebuild.  Up to them really.

At this point, I'd favor full rebuild, because even if they retool and somehow can be a winning team, I still think they're looking at a best case of 3rd place in the division and a 2nd WC.  And that's if they're lucky and everything goes right.

[Camden_yardbird]

The next most important thing to do is to extend some of the core players so the Orioles don't end up in this situation again.  Get some more years then the arb years at a cheaper rate.  It creates more flexibility in the future.

Gausman, Bundy, Schoop and Mancini would be the primary targets IMO.  The Orioles have to engender some interest in the team and making sure you have players fans can root for is a big part of that.

I have a Wieters jersey,  I have a Machado jersey.  I don't know why would spend on player specific merchandise until I knew that player was going to be around for awhile. (Yes, I realize a Wieters extension would have been a mistake.)  

[mdbdotcom]

The next most important thing to do is to trade Britton, and Trumbo and Brach.