What are the odds of a modest Chris Davis comeback in 2018?

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Buck would have pulled him out of games to keep him from setting the record.

At the pace Davis was striking out, Buck would have had to keep him out of 16-17 games to keep him from breaking the record.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

At the pace Davis was striking out, Buck would have had to keep him out of 16-17 games to keep him from breaking the record.

Phantom injury.

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, cimota said:

Maybe we can DFA him and Trumbo on the same day.  I wonder whose idea it was to sign two low average , super high strike out first basemen to long term contracts.  

Angelos? Maybe Buck too?

[jtschrei]

I have a funny feeling the Deputy is going to have a monster year. I don't know why. All the data says otherwise. Just a feeling. 

[OFFNY]

2 hours ago, jtschrei said:

 

I have a funny feeling that the Deputy is going to have a monster year. I don't know why. All the data says otherwise. Just a feeling.

 

o

 

 

o

[TommyPickles]

Well after his .732 OPS and -0.1 rWAR in 2017, I'd be excited to see him hit 30 homers and put up a .800 OPS.

Fairly low bar for the money we're paying him for the next half decade...

 

[atomic]

33 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Well after his .732 OPS and -0.1 rWAR in 2017, I'd be excited to see him hit 30 homers and put up a .800 OPS.

Fairly low bar for the money we're paying him for the next half decade...

 

He could hit 8 home runs and put up an .800 OPS and I would be thrilled.  

[mdbdotcom]

3 hours ago, jtschrei said:

I have a funny feeling the Deputy is going to have a monster year. I don't know why. All the data says otherwise. Just a feeling. 

What were the last 3 times you had a feeling like this and how did they work out?

[OFFNY]

2 hours ago, TommyPickles said:

 

Well after his .732 OPS and -0.1 rWAR in 2017, I'd be excited to see him hit 30 homers and put up a .800 OPS.

That's a fairly low bar for the money we're paying him for the next half decade ........

 

o

 

34 HR's and an .866 OPS.

 

o

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

34 HR's and an .866 OPS.

 

o

That's a prediction?     As they say, "from your mouth to God's ear!"

[WEAVERMAN]

On ‎12‎/‎26‎/‎2017 at 9:40 AM, Frobby said:

In 2017, Chris Davis batted .215/.309/.423 with 26 HR and 61 RBI and struck out in 37.2% of his plate appearances.

The three major projection systems that have published projections so far have him making a bit of a comeback in 2018:

Steamer: .227/.331/.479, 35 HR 88 RBI 34.3% K rate

ZiPS: .223/.318/.459, 31 HR 81 RBI 36.2% K rate

Marcel: .231/.330/.471, 30 HR 71 RBI 32.9% K rate

None of those projections would have us doing cartwheels, or justify a $23 mm salary, but they’d still represent a considerable improvement over last year.    What do you think — is it reasonable to hope for this level of improvement?

I don't expect much improvement, but it has to get better.  We might as well be optimistic with Davis making $23 M.  

[atomic]

22 minutes ago, WEAVERMAN said:

I don't expect much improvement, but it has to get better.  We might as well be optimistic with Davis making $23 M.  

Well according to Baseball Reference the third most similar batter to Chris Davis through age 31 was Mark McGwire. At age 32 Mark had a 1.198 OPS and his career really took off for the next 5 years.  Having 9 WAR season at 34.  So improvement  is very much possible.  

[Legend_Of_Joey]

4 minutes ago, cimota said:

Well according to Baseball Reference the third most similar batter to Chris Davis through age 31 was Mark McGwire. At age 32 Mark had a 1.198 OPS and his career really took off for the next 5 years.  Having 9 WAR season at 34.  So improvement  is very much possible.  

Davis has already been suspended once due to "PED's." 

[pastorfan]

On 12/26/2017 at 10:49 AM, wildcard said:

His 3 year averages are 532 AB, 88R, 37HR, 87RBI, 233/334/481/815.

I think he can achieve that.  Health is a big deal for him.  If he stays relatively healthy I think he has a good year.

I think his issue is primarily mental. If we can get that straightened out then he could be back to 40+ bombs. 

[UpstateNYfan]

I predict a modest increase in chew as his cheeks expand.