What’s the most you’d pay Jonathan Schoop on a six-year deal?

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I think locking up a player at this stage of their career, worked very well for the Indians a while back, but these days, and the amount of money needed, makes it riskier.

The Indians are still at it, and doing a good job of it.   For example, last winter they signed Jose Ramirez, who was still a year away from arbitration, to a 5 year, $26 mm deal, with two team options at $11 and $13 mm.     So effectively, they’ve signed him for 7/$50 mm through his age 30 season.    Meanwhile, he was worth 6.9 rWAR last year, and 14 rWAR in his career.

They also signed Kipnis before the 2014 season to a 6 year, $52.5 mm deal with a team option at $16.5 mm.   That deal also was signed a year before Kipnis was eligible for arbitration.

They also signed Kluber to a 5-year, $38.5 mm deal before the 2015 season, with two team options at $13.5 and $14 mm.   That deal also was done a year before Kluber was eligible for arbitration.    

Now imagine what these guys would be pulling down in free agency, or even what their deals would look like if signed 1-2 years before free agency.     Kluber would be a year away from free agency now.    What would he be demanding, 7/$200 mm or so?

 

[theobird]

6/100. And I think that has a really good chance of getting it done.

[bpilktree]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The Indians are still at it, and doing a good job of it.   For example, last winter they signed Jose Ramirez, who was still a year away from arbitration, to a 5 year, $26 mm deal, with two team options at $11 and $13 mm.     So effectively, they’ve signed him for 7/$50 mm through his age 30 season.    Meanwhile, he was worth 6.9 rWAR last year, and 14 rWAR in his career.

They also signed Kipnis before the 2014 season to a 6 year, $52.5 mm deal with a team option at $16.5 mm.   That deal also was signed a year before Kipnis was eligible for arbitration.

They also signed Kluber to a 5-year, $38.5 mm deal before the 2015 season, with two team options at $13.5 and $14 mm.   That deal also was done a year before Kluber was eligible for arbitration.    

Now imagine what these guys would be pulling down in free agency, or even what their deals would look like if signed 1-2 years before free agency.     Kluber would be a year away from free agency now.    What would he be demanding, 7/$200 mm or so?

 

The Indians have done it with a lot of their guys signing them to extensions before they hit free agency.  They have extended Kipinis, Brantley, Kluber, Gomes, Cararsco, and Rameriz.  They have not locked up Lindor yet but it will be interesting to see if they do.  The other guys besides Kluber are not superstars but solid players locked up.  Rameriz may turn into a superstar as well, he was great last year so another good year year would put him in that category.

[MikeAD]

6/123.  We will laugh at those numbers half way though the contract.  If no extension move him now his value is enormous with two years of control and such talent. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, MikeAD said:

6/123.  We will laugh at those numbers half way though the contract.  If no extension move him now his value is enormous with two years of control and such talent. 

You don't think that is high considering you would be buying out two years of arbitration?

[MikeAD]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You don't think that is high considering you would be buying out two years of arbitration?

Well I'd certainly be happier if it were closer to 100M over that time frame but the question is what is the max I would do.  And I understand about arbitration but you will not get a 2B at his age and talent 2 years from now on the FA market for 6 years at 100 M.  

[El Gordo]

If Schoop's D was better I'd see him as a 20 M AAV player.But when you consider the injury risk at 2B (he has already sustained one knee injury) and the 2 years arb, I think 6 80 M is the right ballpark

[TradeAngelos]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

The Indians are still at it, and doing a good job of it.   For example, last winter they signed Jose Ramirez, who was still a year away from arbitration, to a 5 year, $26 mm deal, with two team options at $11 and $13 mm.     So effectively, they’ve signed him for 7/$50 mm through his age 30 season.    Meanwhile, he was worth 6.9 rWAR last year, and 14 rWAR in his career.

They also signed Kipnis before the 2014 season to a 6 year, $52.5 mm deal with a team option at $16.5 mm.   That deal also was signed a year before Kipnis was eligible for arbitration.

They also signed Kluber to a 5-year, $38.5 mm deal before the 2015 season, with two team options at $13.5 and $14 mm.   That deal also was done a year before Kluber was eligible for arbitration.    

Now imagine what these guys would be pulling down in free agency, or even what their deals would look like if signed 1-2 years before free agency.     Kluber would be a year away from free agency now.    What would he be demanding, 7/$200 mm or so?

 

Yeah because well run teams like the Indians don't look at it as a "risk" they look at it as an "opportunity" to lock up a good young player for less money than it would cost when the contract is up. There is "risk" in every single deal that is signed whether you have 2 arb years left or not. Actually, when you are talking about only "guaranteeing" 4 years instead of 6 on the open market, the risk is much LESS because the guaranteed money is. When you are talking about signing a 26 year old vs a 28 year old the risk is LESS. The AAV is LESS. So add all that up and what do you have? A contract that is +EV for the team every single time. Not -EV. 

And oh wow look at teams that do this are profiting very nicely from this approach, because they don't think a@# backwards like the Orioles front office, ownership, and most fans around here. 

 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, TradeAngelos said:

And oh wow look at teams that do this are profiting very nicely from this approach, because they don't think a@# backwards like the Orioles front office, ownership, and most fans around here. 

 

Most fans around here have been advocating extending Schoop for a long time.   A year ago, before Schoop’s big season, I advocated extending him for 5/$43 mm or 6/$57 mm (covering either 2 or 3 FA seasons and his three arb years).   Obviously, he’s more expensive now, both because he’s a year closer to FA and because he  had a terrific year in 2017.

[MikeAD]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Most fans around here have been advocating extending Schoop for a long time.   A year ago, before Schoop’s big season, I advocated extending him for 5/$43 mm or 6/$57 mm (covering either 2 or 3 FA seasons and his three arb years).   Obviously, he’s more expensive now, both because he’s a year closer to FA and because he  had a terrific year in 2017.

I think TradeAngelos is referring to the actual decision makers not fans.  Of course invested fans who know what they are talking about want to make smart decisions.  

I'll be the first to say the Orioles do not look to lock up young talent, but then again we always seem to and we get "burned."  Probably because we chose the wrong players to lock up, but hindsight and such.  
 

[Il BuonO]

 

13 hours ago, TradeAngelos said:

And oh wow look at teams that do this are profiting very nicely from this approach, because they don't think a@# backwards like the Orioles front office, ownership, and most fans around here. 

 

10 hours ago, MikeAD said:

I think TradeAngelos is referring to the actual decision makers not fans.  Of course invested fans who know what they are talking about want to make smart decisions.  

The phrase “most fans around here” thinking backwards says otherwise.

[MikeAD]

3 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

 

 

The phrase “most fans around here” thinking backwards says otherwise.

I reckon so. Reading never was my strongest talent. 

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

The huge dropoff was at 28 in 2014, when he hit .196. How that was ignored and he was gifted a 6 year contract.... just  makes no senso

 

8 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

This.  2014 was enough of warning sign that you don't gamble on Davis with a long term contract.  Orioles can't afford to eat bad contracts like the Yankee and Red Sox.  

2013: TUE, 1.004 OPS

2014: no TUE, .704 OPS

2015: TUE, .923 OPS

I think is was reasonable to assume that his 2014 season was directly linked to the fact that he didn’t have a TUE, and there was no reason to think he wouldn’t have one in 2016 and going forward.    I wouldn’t have paid him  7/$161 mm in any circumstances, but there was no reason to expect an immediate drastic drop.

Davis did manage to be worth 1.8 rWAR in 2014, and 3.0 in 2016.    I’m just hoping he can push himself back into that range.

[Frobby]

Jon Shepherd of Camden Depot says Schoop is worth between $71 and $86 mm on a 5-year deal, and between $114 and $133 mm on a 7 year deal.    So I guess that means between $92 and $110 mm on a 6-year deal.    http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/01/extending-jonathan-schoopor-not.html?m=1

[Beef Supreme]

Seems respondents are answering two separate questions. If the question is, "How much money would it require for Schoop to agree to a six-year deal?," then I think the answer starts at $100MM and goes up from there.

If the question is, "What is the most a person, acting as team General Manager, would offer Schoop to buy out two arb years and get four years beyond that?," then I could see someone answering $80MM to $90MM. But I think that just means they will not be singing him.

I think that my top offer if I were GM would depend partly on what type of ability I had to trade the player vs. what type of no-trade clause the player demands. So, between $105MM full no-trade clause for the player up to $120MM with no no-trade clause might get Schoop signed.